London Council Prediction game

[dizz]

There seems to be quite a bit of interest in the London council results so why not have a comp thread for them here?

There are 32 boroughs so I suggest that we have one point each for the result of each of the boroughs i.e. Lab/Con/LD/NOC & see who comes out best. It should be pretty easy to get a fairly high score I reckon.

We could then spice things up further by guessing which boroughs Lab/LD/Con will lose & gain the most seats in (adds 6 more possible points) & also what the Con & Lab net Council gains & losses will be which will take it up to a possible 40 points. The thinking on this would be that if you don't think Labour will lose any seats then you could say Richmond & then if they don't lose any seats in the whole of London then you get a point for getting that right. Also I would suggest that the gains & losses are done on a net basis & also by reference to the 2010 results rather than where things stand now.

What do people think - might be easiest to keep it as the basic 32 & then run the rest separately as a bit of fun?

[dizz]

Thinking on the job we could include the 4 Mayoral elections too, not least as there are some easy points to be had there too.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I did predictions for each council at work, and then it was decided not to send them out just in case some of them turned out to be embarrassingly wrong.

[dizz]

I think you did that 4 years ago too?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Yes - considerably underestimated Labour's council gains then.

I did predict the regain of Lambeth control in 2006 against the national tide though.

[Pete Whitehead]

I think Enfield was the only one which took me by surprise in 2010

[mrtoad]

Labour control: Barking & Dagenhsm, Brent, Camden, Ealing, Enfield, Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Hounslow, Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Waltham Forest (15) plus Croydon, Harrow, Merton, Redbridge for total of19.

Conservative control: Bexley, Bromley, Hammersmith & Fulham, Hillingdon, Kensington & Chelsea, Richmond, Wandsworth, Westminster (8) plus Kingston for total of 9

Lib Dem control: Sutton (1)

NOC: Barnet, Havering, Tower Hamlets (3)

Mayors: Pipe, Wales, Bullock, Rahman

[dizz]

Looks good - I suggest a time limit of 9pm next Thursday for entries & happy to keep it to the 32 boroughs & 4 mayoral results.

[Pete Whitehead]

May 15, 2014 21:30:28 GMT dizz said:

The thinking on this would be that if you don't think Labour will lose any seats then you could say Richmond & then if they don't lose any seats in the whole of London then you get a point for getting that right.

I completely don't understand this

[dizz]

May 16, 2014 7:54:53 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

May 15, 2014 21:30:28 GMT dizz said:

The thinking on this would be that if you don't think Labour will lose any seats then you could say Richmond & then if they don't lose any seats in the whole of London then you get a point for getting that right.

I completely don't understand this

OK - so if you thought Labour would gain (on a net basis) 20 extra seats in Wandsworth & only 1 extra seat in all other boroughs apart from Richmond and (of course) Barking & Dagenham & Newham where you thought they would gain (on a net basis) none then you'd get a point if you said that Lab would get the most net gains in Wandsworth (yes, I know not likely) and you'd get a further point if you said that Labour would do the worst (on a net basis) in one of those 3 boroughs where they gained nothing. Of course if Labour lost 10 seats in Redbridge then you'd not score anything for saying that they would do the worst (on a net gains/losses basis) in Richmond.

So, i suggest we keep the game to just the results of the 32 boroughs & Mayoral elections & if anyone wants to do more than that as a bit of fun then great.

[finsobruce]

May 16, 2014 19:05:48 GMT dizz said:

May 16, 2014 7:54:53 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I completely don't understand this

OK - so if you thought Labour would gain (on a net basis) 20 extra seats in Wandsworth & only 1 extra seat in all other boroughs apart from Richmond and (of course) Barking & Dagenham & Newham where you thought they would gain (on a net basis) none then you'd get a point if you said that Lab would get the most net gains in Wandsworth (yes, I know not likely) and you'd get a further point if you said that Labour would do the worst (on a net basis) in one of those 3 boroughs where they gained nothing. Of course if Labour lost 10 seats in Redbridge then you'd not score anything for saying that they would do the worst (on a net gains/losses basis) in Richmond.

So, i suggest we keep the game to just the results of the 32 boroughs & Mayoral elections & if anyone wants to do more than that as a bit of fun then great.

 I'm with Pete...

[Deleted]

May 16, 2014 19:05:48 GMT dizz said:

May 16, 2014 7:54:53 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I completely don't understand this

OK - so if you thought Labour would gain (on a net basis) 20 extra seats in Wandsworth & only 1 extra seat in all other boroughs apart from Richmond and (of course) Barking & Dagenham & Newham where you thought they would gain (on a net basis) none then you'd get a point if you said that Lab would get the most net gains in Wandsworth (yes, I know not likely) and you'd get a further point if you said that Labour would do the worst (on a net basis) in one of those 3 boroughs where they gained nothing. Of course if Labour lost 10 seats in Redbridge then you'd not score anything for saying that they would do the worst (on a net gains/losses basis) in Richmond.

So, i suggest we keep the game to just the results of the 32 boroughs & Mayoral elections & if anyone wants to do more than that as a bit of fun then great.

I get it. We have to predict the borough that labour make the biggest net gain in and that in which they make the biggest net loss (/smallest gain)

Presumably like wise for the tories

(LD? Green and UKIP?)

[dizz]

phew.

[kevinlarkin]

We only have one entry, so I will go up against mrtoad even though he knows all there is to be knowed.

Labour control: Barking & Dagenhsm, Brent, Camden, Ealing, Enfield, Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Hounslow, Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Waltham Forest (15) plus Croydon, Harrow, Merton, Redbridge for total of 19.

Conservative control: Bexley, Bromley, Hammersmith & Fulham, Hillingdon, Kensington & Chelsea, Wandsworth, Westminster, Barnet (8) plus Kingston for total of 9

Lib Dem control: Sutton, Richmond (2)

NOC: Havering, Tower Hamlets (2)

Mayors: Pipe, Wales, Bullock, Biggs

Most gains: Conservative - Kingston, Labour - Islington, Lib Dem - Richmond
Most losses: Conservative: Redbridge, Labour - Tower Hamlets, Lib Dem - Islington

[mrtoad]

A very witty and generous reference, Kevin! We're as one except on Barnet, Richmond and the Tower Hamlets mayoralty. Wild guess on the most gains/ losses follows: I think you're right on:

GAINS Con - Kingston and probably also LD - Richmond (although a chicken option like LD - Croydon has appeal)
LOSSES Labour - Tower Hamlets

I'll go for
GAINS Lab - Brent
LOSSES Con - Havering, LD - Haringey.

[Pete Whitehead]

I wonder if Kevin has put some money on a LD gain in Richmond - would pay off nicely if so. I suggested this possibility a while back on UKPR (Con gain Kingston but LDs gain Richmond) and it was widely dismissed. I've got to say it doesn't sound too likely from what I've been hearing but it has developed a tendency to flip against the trend. I'd generally agree with the list of boroughs aside from that. I'd suspect that Labour will win a majority in Tower Hamlets and I have a slight hunch Harrow may go to the Tories thanks to a split Labour vote there

[dizz]

I will be predicting tomorrow.

[johnloony]

May 16, 2014 19:05:48 GMT dizz said:

OK - so if you thought Labour would gain (on a net basis) 20 extra seats in Wandsworth & only 1 extra seat in all other boroughs apart from Richmond and (of course) Barking & Dagenham & Newham where you thought they would gain (on a net basis) none then you'd get a point if you said that Lab would get the most net gains in Wandsworth (yes, I know not likely) and you'd get a further point if you said that Labour would do the worst (on a net basis) in one of those 3 boroughs where they gained nothing. Of course if Labour lost 10 seats in Redbridge then you'd not score anything for saying that they would do the worst (on a net gains/losses basis) in Richmond.

It might help if you used proper punctuation and slightly fewer than 576,000,000,000 words per sentence.

[mrtoad]

London Communications Agency predictions here www.londoncommunications.co.uk/predictions-2014/

Lab gain Merton, TH Mayor, hold TH council
NOC in Havering, Harrow, Redbridge and Croydon (?)
Con hold Barnet, Richmond, HamFul

[Deleted]

Labour control: Barking & Dagenhsm, Brent, Camden, Ealing, Enfield, Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Hounslow, Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest (16) plus Croydon, Merton, Redbridge for total of 19.

Conservative control: Barnet, Bexley, Bromley, Hammersmith & Fulham, Hillingdon, Kensington & Chelsea, Richmond, Wandsworth, Westminster,(9) plus Harrow and Kingston for total of 11

Lib Dem control: Sutton

NOC: Havering

Mayors: Pipe, Wales, Bullock, Rahman

Most overall gains: Conservative - Kingston, Labour - Redbridge, Lib Dem - No council having any gains. Fewest losses in any council where currently on 0 e.g. Hammersmith and Fulham

Most overall losses: Conservative: Redbridge, Labour Sutton , Lib Dem - Islington