graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,291
|
Post by graham on Oct 10, 2022 19:16:10 GMT
Labour's vote in Portsmouth South had surely been articially depressed for years by widespread tactical voting for Mike Hancock since his 1984 by election win. Had that by election never occurred , Labour would almost certainly have won the seat in 1997 and held on there until 2010. The shock win from 3rd place in 2017 - and Labour's significant consolidation of its position in 2019 against the national tide - will likely have removed doubts as to who now represents the main anti - Tory challenger. In Sutton Carshalton Labour lost its position as the main anti- Tory option in 1983 and failed to recover even in 1997. Probably this owed much to LD dominance at Local Elections and the incumbency of Tom Brake following his election in 1997. His defeat in 2019 - and his decision not to run again - combined with very high Labour poll ratings may now present Labour with an opportunity to make good progress.
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 10, 2022 20:34:44 GMT
Labour's vote in Portsmouth South had surely been articially depressed for years by widespread tactical voting for Mike Hancock since his 1984 by election win. Had that by election never occurred , Labour would almost certainly have won the seat in 1997 and held on there until 2010. The shock win from 3rd place in 2017 - and Labour's significant consolidation of its position in 2019 against the national tide - will likely have removed doubts as to who now represents the main anti - Tory challenger. In Sutton Carshalton Labour lost its position as the main anti- Tory option in 1983 and failed to recover even in 1997. Probably this owed much to LD dominance at Local Elections and the incumbency of Tom Brake following his election in 1997. His defeat in 2019 - and his decision not to run again - combined with very high Labour poll ratings may now present Labour with an opportunity to make good progress. As you have such a touching nostalgia for pre-1983 London Borough constituency naming conventions, why do you never refer to Merton, Wimbledon in the c.50% of your posts which mention that constituency?
|
|
|
Post by batman on Oct 10, 2022 21:52:18 GMT
Labour's vote in Portsmouth South had surely been articially depressed for years by widespread tactical voting for Mike Hancock since his 1984 by election win. Had that by election never occurred , Labour would almost certainly have won the seat in 1997 and held on there until 2010. The shock win from 3rd place in 2017 - and Labour's significant consolidation of its position in 2019 against the national tide - will likely have removed doubts as to who now represents the main anti - Tory challenger. In Sutton Carshalton Labour lost its position as the main anti- Tory option in 1983 and failed to recover even in 1997. Probably this owed much to LD dominance at Local Elections and the incumbency of Tom Brake following his election in 1997. His defeat in 2019 - and his decision not to run again - combined with very high Labour poll ratings may now present Labour with an opportunity to make good progress. As you have such a touching nostalgia for pre-1983 London Borough constituency naming conventions, why do you never refer to Merton, Wimbledon in the c.50% of your posts which mention that constituency? While the rest of the country refers to the constituencies of Battersea, Putney & Tooting, Wandsworth Council still uses the borough prefix on its parliamentary election notices (though the Returning Officer doesn't use them when announcing the results).
|
|
Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,887
|
Post by Khunanup on Oct 10, 2022 23:19:21 GMT
Yes, but Labour have been quite close in the local elections in Eastney and Craneswater in recent times; I accept that the Lib Dems may have been somewhat squeezed by Conservatives in that ward in a two-way constituency battle, but Khunanup suggests that the Lib Dems did well in his ward, or have I misunderstandi that? Labour won by 11.3%, not barely 10%, though I do take your point. Barely means 'not much more than'. Khunanup can speak for himself but I doubt he was suggesting the Lib Dems won his ward in the general election. Look at it another way, the Conservatives won 37% of the vote in both recent general elections. Their vote is pretty derisory in Charles Dickens, Fratton etc in local elections and would have been well short of that figure in those wards. Again it stands to reason that they must have been getting in the higher 40s in more favourable wards, of which E&C is probably the most favourable.. Indeed. The Conservatives won Eastney & Craneswater with Labour winning the rest. A similar pattern to 2005 and 2010 (obviously with Lib Dem rather than Labour as the other main party) with the exception that the Tories also shaded St Jude in 2005 and 2010 is the only time since at least '83 that one party won all wards in the constituency (with E&C going Lib Dem in the general by c.50 votes while I was losing the council election by a little over 150). As another aside, and bringing up the counter intuitive to what people usually expect of Lib Dem voting patterns as happened in Eastney & Craneswater in 2010, from '87 to 2010, Havelock/Central Southsea ward voted Lib Dem every general election but the first Lib Dem councillor was not elected until 2004.
|
|
|
Post by martinwhelton on Oct 11, 2022 6:33:05 GMT
As you have such a touching nostalgia for pre-1983 London Borough constituency naming conventions, why do you never refer to Merton, Wimbledon in the c.50% of your posts which mention that constituency? While the rest of the country refers to the constituencies of Battersea, Putney & Tooting, Wandsworth Council still uses the borough prefix on its parliamentary election notices (though the Returning Officer doesn't use them when announcing the results). The prefix was only part of each London seat from 1974-83, in most London boroughs it was dropped though retained in some boroughs after 1983. I suspect Sutton, Carshalton was used more than in other places due to being a short name and Wallington was only incorporated in its name after 1983 having never previously been used as a name even when it was part of the Mitcham seat.
|
|
|
Post by martinwhelton on Oct 11, 2022 6:44:24 GMT
Carshalton & Wallington is identical or near-identical in its boundaries to the previous Sutton Carshalton constituency. This was won by Labour at the 1973 GLC elections but never subsequently in parliamentary or GLC elections. Labour has basically never recovered from losing its second place to the Alliance in 1983, unlike in so many other seats. The seat does have demographic potential but the tactical squeeze remains strong and I suspect that it might take another national Lib Dem collapse to put Labour back into contention. But then the boundary changes rip the seat apart anyway don't they. Seat currently unchanged in this review apart from minor ones to re-align with new ward boundaries unlike in the two zombie reviews. The seat was unchanged from 1974-2010 when minor changes saw about 2,000 voters moved from Carshalton to Sutton due to wards crossing constituency boundaries. Seat that certainly has potential for Labour now that the incumbency factor has gone for Tom Brake and Labour advances at the recent local elections shows that there is potential.
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Oct 11, 2022 23:31:53 GMT
Labour's vote in Portsmouth South had surely been articially depressed for years by widespread tactical voting for Mike Hancock since his 1984 by election win. Had that by election never occurred , Labour would almost certainly have won the seat in 1997 and held on there until 2010. The shock win from 3rd place in 2017 - and Labour's significant consolidation of its position in 2019 against the national tide - will likely have removed doubts as to who now represents the main anti - Tory challenger. In Sutton Carshalton Labour lost its position as the main anti- Tory option in 1983 and failed to recover even in 1997. Probably this owed much to LD dominance at Local Elections and the incumbency of Tom Brake following his election in 1997. His defeat in 2019 - and his decision not to run again - combined with very high Labour poll ratings may now present Labour with an opportunity to make good progress. Kingston & Surbiton is another seat where Labour underperform in General Elections - sans Davey, they would do a fair bit better imo.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Oct 12, 2022 7:43:52 GMT
well you say that, but our local election performance there this year was pretty dire, we made a little progress in Norbiton ward but were still easily beaten despite a very energetic & personable lead candidate. Elsewhere there was no sign of a serious Labour revival even though it was fairly clear the Tories had very little chance. So while perhaps there is some potential even in Sutton we are showing more signs of living up to it
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,291
|
Post by graham on Oct 13, 2022 8:27:05 GMT
Labour's vote in Portsmouth South had surely been articially depressed for years by widespread tactical voting for Mike Hancock since his 1984 by election win. Had that by election never occurred , Labour would almost certainly have won the seat in 1997 and held on there until 2010. The shock win from 3rd place in 2017 - and Labour's significant consolidation of its position in 2019 against the national tide - will likely have removed doubts as to who now represents the main anti - Tory challenger. In Sutton Carshalton Labour lost its position as the main anti- Tory option in 1983 and failed to recover even in 1997. Probably this owed much to LD dominance at Local Elections and the incumbency of Tom Brake following his election in 1997. His defeat in 2019 - and his decision not to run again - combined with very high Labour poll ratings may now present Labour with an opportunity to make good progress. Kingston & Surbiton is another seat where Labour underperform in General Elections - sans Davey, they would do a fair bit better imo. Maybe so - though the seat has no history of having been a Con/Lab marginal - unlike Carshalton & Wallington in the 1970s.
|
|
|
Post by finsobruce on Oct 13, 2022 8:31:19 GMT
Kingston & Surbiton is another seat where Labour underperform in General Elections - sans Davey, they would do a fair bit better imo. Maybe so - though the seat has no history of having been a Con/Lab marginal - unlike Carshalton & Wallington in the 1970s. The lowest the majority went in the old Kingston constituency was 6,787 in the 1972 by election.
|
|
|
Post by rockefeller on Oct 13, 2022 9:44:54 GMT
Maybe so - though the seat has no history of having been a Con/Lab marginal - unlike Carshalton & Wallington in the 1970s. The lowest the majority went in the old Kingston constituency was 6,787 in the 1972 by election. The seat has changed a lot since 1972. Far more university influence these days. Norbiton wouldn't be out of place in a Labour seat.
|
|
|
Post by michaelarden on Oct 13, 2022 11:20:12 GMT
Maybe so - though the seat has no history of having been a Con/Lab marginal - unlike Carshalton & Wallington in the 1970s. The lowest the majority went in the old Kingston constituency was 6,787 in the 1972 by election. The old Surbiton was the largest component of the seat and Labour were competitive but not really close (15% behind in 1966) until the 1980s. If the seat had survived I would have thought demographic change would have made it less and less Tory and if the Libs/Lib Dems had continued to focus on Kingston, Labour would probably be the challenger now (they might have won from third place in 1997).
|
|
|
Post by bjornhattan on Oct 13, 2022 11:46:53 GMT
The lowest the majority went in the old Kingston constituency was 6,787 in the 1972 by election. The seat has changed a lot since 1972. Far more university influence these days. Norbiton wouldn't be out of place in a Labour seat. You could say much the same thing about Guildford; the Park Barn estate or Bellfields is analogous to Norbiton. Indeed the demographics there are reasonably similar to Kingston and Surbiton (it's slightly less diverse and has a significant rural component, but has an even stronger university influence). Yet Labour are equally weak there.
|
|
|
Post by london(ex)tory on Jun 15, 2023 10:52:38 GMT
|
|
|
Post by mattbewilson on Jun 17, 2023 21:00:37 GMT
Redfield poll on London elections. Little change on last election. Positive news for all the holders of the position of mayor. Ken, Boris and Khan all seen as good mayors. Khan had the best favourable rating with 51% and Ken had the best unfavorable rating of 15%
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 31, 2023 18:23:27 GMT
|
|
|
Post by andrewp on Sept 8, 2023 10:55:37 GMT
Redfield and Wilton
London Westminster VI (4-6 September):
Labour 47% Conservative 27% Liberal Democrat 17% Green 4% Reform 4% Other 1%
Since 2019, that would be
Lab -1 Con -5 LD +2 Green +1
|
|
|
Post by afleitch on Sept 8, 2023 17:45:57 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Sept 9, 2023 3:37:53 GMT
Redfield and Wilton London Westminster VI (4-6 September): Labour 47% Conservative 27% Liberal Democrat 17% Green 4% Reform 4% Other 1% Since 2019, that would be Lab -1 Con -5 LD +2 Green +1 I guess that'd give Labour Chingford, Kensington & Bayswater, a near sweep of the Barnet seats, and possibly Cities of London & Westminster. The Lib Dems would take Wimbledon on the numbers. I think we'd see tactical voting by Lib Dems in Cities, and by Labour in Wimbledon. Davıd Boothroyd would know more about how much shift from Lib Dem to Labour we likely see in Cities of London & Westminster. So, in sum, the Tories would probably lose six constituencies in London on these figures, with a 2% swing to Labour. It may depend on whether ex-MP Emma Dent Coad stands in Kensington & Bayswater, but idk how well she'd do. Steve Tuckwell in Uxbridge & South Ruislip would take some relief from these headline figures - he'd hold on.
|
|
|
Post by batman on Sept 9, 2023 6:06:06 GMT
It is straining credulity to find that Labour gets a smaller share of the vote in London than in 2019, even though Labour did considerably better than average in London in 2019. Although Mr Tuckwell may indeed hang on.
|
|