Indian General Election

[Devil Wincarnate]

Just noticed that a new state of Telengana comes into effect on 2nd June.

[Deleted]

May 16, 2014 7:22:27 GMT iainbhx said:

May 16, 2014 6:42:02 GMT Sibboleth said:

NDA landslide

Looks like the BJP will be able to rule on their own if they want to. Congress possibly won't even have the title of leader of the Opposition with a projection of 46 seats. AFAIK, you need 55 seats to be leader of the opposition.

Who would be Leader of the Opposition in that case?

It is good to see general elections being competitive in India, even if it was a walkover on this occasion. It took 30 years after independence for Congress' dominance to be challenged and I wonder if it will take that long for the same to happen with the ANC in South Africa.

[Sibboleth]

May 16, 2014 11:07:32 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Knowing utterly nothing about the popularity of the parties in various regions, would anyone be able to fill me in as to where each major party is traditionally strongest?

There are only two major parties really: the BJP is historically strongest in the Hindi speaking north of the country, and that question is obviously impossible to answer in respect of the INC which has been (in one form or another) strong and weak in just about every part of India. Most of the parties in Green (but not - for instance - in Kashmir or West Bengal: Congress splinters in those cases) were part of the old Janata Dal party - as was the SP in dull purplish red - which emerged as a united front of socialist parties in the 1980s and which split with impressive speed and viciousness in the 1990s. Stick them all together and you'd have another major party... but then they mostly hate each other.

[Sibboleth]

Btw, you and check out results here: eciresults.nic.in/

Those of you who hate FPTP will likely find whole new reasons to do so!

[David Ashforth]

Map of the results from Google's Politics and Elections page
www.google.co.in/elections/ed/in/districts

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Recount? eciresults.nic.in/ConstituencywiseS094.htm?ac=4

[David Ashforth]

May 16, 2014 16:36:46 GMT Sibboleth said:

Those of you who hate FPTP will likely find whole new reasons to do so!

The lowest winning share of the vote, that I've noticed, is the 28.65% that the Communist Party of India (Marxist) candidate got in Raiganj.

[Sibboleth]

Its just been pointed out to me that both remaining Commie seats in WB are *gains* from Congress. Hahahahaha.

[mattb]

May 16, 2014 19:31:58 GMT David Ashforth said:

May 16, 2014 16:36:46 GMT Sibboleth said:

Those of you who hate FPTP will likely find whole new reasons to do so!

The lowest winning share of the vote, that I've noticed, is the 28.65% that the Communist Party of India (Marxist) candidate got in Raiganj.

27.3% in Ludhiana

[Sibboleth]

Statewide vote changes reveal some interesting patterns. Although FPTP actually doing its thing (which it hasn't always in India in General Elections) means that basically all parties - other than the obvious - suffered seatwise from the huge swing to the BJP, the picture in terms of votes is a little more diverse.

Looking at UP for example:

INC -10.8
BSP -7.8
SP -1.1

And BJP +24.8

Bihar is complicated by the decoupling of the BJP-JD(U) link, so maybe we have to be cautious as to what exactly we're measuring but:

JD(U) -8.2
INC -1.9
RJD +0.8

And BJP +15.5

Assam is also interesting:

AGP -10.8
INC -5.3
AIUDF -1.3

And BJP +20.3

Delhi must be seen to be believed:

AAAP (N/A)
INC -42.0 (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)

And BJP +11.2

West Bengal is frankly hilarious:

AITC +8.1
INC -3.9
CPI(M) -10.4

And BJP +10.7

And Punjab is as mad as hell and isn't going to take it anymore...

AAAP (N/A)
INC -12.1
SAD -7.6
BJP -1.4

[Sibboleth]

BJP gain from INC

Andhra Pradesh, Narsapuram
Andhra Pradesh, Secundrabad
Andhra Pradesh, Visakhapatnam
Arunachal Pradesh, Arunachal West
Assam, Dibrugarh
Assam, Jorhat
Assam, Lakhimpur
Bihar, Sasaram
Chandigarh, Chandigarh
Chhattisgarh, Korba
Delhi, Chandni Chowk
Delhi, East
Delhi, North East
Delhi, North West
Delhi, South
Delhi, West
Delhi, New Delhi
Goa, South
Gujarat, Anand
Gujarat, Banaskantha
Gujarat, Bardoli
Gujarat, Dahod
Gujarat, Jamnagar
Gujarat, Kheda
Gujarat, Patan
Gujarat, Porbandar
Gujarat, Rajkot
Gujarat, Surendranagar
Gujarat, Valsad
Haryana, Ambala
Haryana, Bhiwani-Mahendragarh
Haryana, Faridabad
Haryana, Gurgaon
Haryana, Karnal
Haryana, Kurukshetra
Haryana, Sonipat
Himachal Pradesh, Mandi
Jammu & Kashmir, Jammu
Jammu & Kashmir, Udhampur
Jharkhand, Ranchi
Karnataka, Bidar
Karnataka, Mysore
Madhya Pradesh, Dewas
Madhya Pradesh, Dhar
Madhya Pradesh, Hoshangabad
Madhya Pradesh, Khandwa
Madhya Pradesh, Madla
Madhya Pradesh, Mansour
Madhya Pradesh, Rajgarh
Madhya Pradesh, Ratlam
Madhya Pradesh, Shadol
Madhya Pradesh, Ujjain
Maharashtra, Bhiwandi
Maharashtra, Gadchirolli-Chimur
Maharashtra, Latur
Maharashtra, Mumbai North
Maharashtra, Mumbai North Central
Maharashtra, Nagpur
Maharashtra, Nandurbar
Maharashtra, Pune
Maharashtra, Sangli
Maharashtra, Solapur
Maharashtra, Wardha
Odisha, Sundargarh
Punjab, Gurdaspur
Punjab, Hoshiarpur
Rajasthan, Ajmer
Rajasthan, Alwar
Rajasthan, Banswara
Rajasthan, Barmer
Rajasthan, Bharatpur
Rajasthan, Bhilwara
Rajasthan, Chittorgarh
Rajasthan, Ganganagar
Rajasthan, Jaipur
Rajasthan, Jaipur Rural
Rajasthan, Jhunjhunu
Rajasthan, Johdpur
Rajasthan, Karuli-Dholpur
Rajasthan, Kota
Rajasthan, Nagaur
Rajasthan, Pali
Rajasthan, Rajsamand
Rajasthan, Sikar
Rajasthan, Tonk-Sawai-Madhopur
Rajasthan, Udaipur
Uttarakhand, Almora
Uttarakhand, Garhwal
Uttarakhand, Hardwar
Uttarakhand, Nainital-Udhamsingh Nagar
Uttarakhand, Tehri Garhwal
Uttar Pradesh, Akbarpur
Uttar Pradesh, Bahraich
Uttar Pradesh, Barabanki
Uttar Pradesh, Bareilly
Uttar Pradesh, Dhaurahra
Uttar Pradesh, Domariyaganj
Uttar Pradesh, Faizabad
Uttar Pradesh, Farrukhabad
Uttar Pradesh, Gonda
Uttar Pradesh, Jhansi
Uttar Pradesh, Kanpur
Uttar Pradesh, Kheri
Uttar Pradesh, Kushi Nagar
Uttar Pradesh, Maharajganj
Uttar Pradesh, Mordabad
Uttar Pradesh, Shrawasti
Uttar Pradesh, Sultanpur
Uttar Pradesh, Unnao

BJP gain from BSP

Madhya Pradesh, Rewa
Uttar Pradesh, Aligarh
Uttar Pradesh, Basti
Uttar Pradesh, Bhadoni
Uttar Pradesh, Deoria
Uttar Pradesh, Fatehpur Sikri
Uttar Pradesh, Gautam Buddh Nagar
Uttar Pradesh, Ghosi
Uttar Pradesh, Hamirpur
Uttar Pradesh, Jaunpur
Uttar Pradesh, Kairana
Uttar Pradesh, Lalganj
Uttar Pradesh, Misrikh
Uttar Pradesh, Muzaffarnagar
Uttar Pradesh, Phulpur
Uttar Pradesh, Saharanpur
Uttar Pradesh, Salempur
Uttar Pradesh, Sant Kabir Nagar
Uttar Pradesh, Sitapur

BJP gain from SP

Uttar Pradesh, Allahabad
Uttar Pradesh, Ambedkar Nagar
Uttar Pradesh, Ballia
Uttar Pradesh, Banda
Uttar Pradesh, Bulandshahr
Uttar Pradesh, Chandauli
Uttar Pradesh, Etawah
Uttar Pradesh, Fatehpur
Uttar Pradesh, Ghazipur
Uttar Pradesh, Hardoi
Uttar Pradesh, Jalaun
Uttar Pradesh, Kaiserganj
Uttar Pradesh, Kaushambi
Uttar Pradesh, Nagina
Uttar Pradesh, Machhlishahr
Uttar Pradesh, Mohanlalganj
Uttar Pradesh, Rampur
Uttar Pradesh, Robertsganj
Uttar Pradesh, Shahjahanpur

BJP gain from JD(U)

Bihar, Arrah
Bihar, Aurangabad
Bihar, Begusarai
Bihar, Gopalganj
Bihar, Jhanjharpur
Bihar, Muzaffarpur
Bihar, Pataliputra
Bihar, Ujiarpur
Bihar, Valmiki Nagar

BJP gain from RLD

Uttar Pradesh, Amroha
Uttar Pradesh, Baghpat
Uttar Pradesh, Bijnor
Uttar Pradesh, Hathras
Uttar Pradesh, Mathura

BJP gain from RJD

Bihar, Buxar
Bihar, Maharajganj
Bihar, Saran

BJP gain from NCP

Maharashtra, Bhandara-Gondiya
Maharashtra, Mumbai North East

BJP gain from AGP

Assam, Tezpur

BJP gain from CPI(M)

West Bengal, Asansol

BJP gain from DMK

Tamil Nadu, Kanniyakumari

BJP gain from JMM

Jharkhand, Palamau

BJP gain from JVM

Jharkhand, Kodarma

BJP gain from Independent

Bihar, Siwan
Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh
Jharkhand, Chatra
Jharkhand, Singhbhum
Maharashtra, Palghar
Rajasthan, Dausa
Uttar Pradesh, Etah

AIADMK gain from DMK

Tamil Nadu, Arakkonam
Tamil Nadu, Chennai Central
Tamil Nadu, Chennai North
Tamil Nadu, Kallakurichi
Tamil Nadu, Krishnagiri
Tamil Nadu, Madurai
Tamil Nadu, Nagapattinam
Tamil Nadu, Namakkal
Tamil Nadu, Nilgiris
Tamil Nadu, Perambalur
Tamil Nadu, Ramanathapuram
Tamil Nadu, Sriperumbudur
Tamil Nadu, Thanjavur
Tamil Nadu, Theni
Tamil Nadu, Thoothukkudi
Tamil Nadu, Tiruvannamalai
Tamil Nadu, Vellore

AIADMK gain from INC

Tamil Nadu, Arani
Tamil Nadu, Cuddalore
Tamil Nadu, Dindigul
Tamil Nadu, Kancheepuram
Tamil Nadu, Sivaganga
Tamil Nadu, Tirunelveli
Tamil Nadu, Virudhunagar

AIADMK gain from CPI

Tamil Nadu, Tenkasi

AIADMK gain from CPI(M)

Tamil Nadu, Coimbatore

AIADMK gain from MDMK

Tamil Nadu, Erode

AIADMK gain from VCK

Tamil Nadu, Chidambaram

AITMC gain from CPI(M)

West Bengal, Arambagh
West Bengal, Bankura
West Bengal, Bardhaman Purba
West Bengal, Bishnupur
West Bengal, Bolpur
West Bengal, Burdwan-Durgapur
West Bengal, Jalpaiguri
West Bengal, Jhargram

AITC gain from AIFB

West Bengal, Cooch Behar
West Bengal, Purulia

AITC gain from CPI

West Bengal, Ghatal
West Bengal, Medinipur

AITC gain from RSP

West Bengal, Alipurduars
West Bengal, Balurghat

TDP gain from INC

Andhra Pradesh, Amalapuram
Andhra Pradesh, Anantapur
Andhra Pradesh, Bapatla
Andhra Pradesh, Eluru
Andhra Pradesh, Guntur
Andhra Pradesh, Kakinada
Andhra Pradesh, Malkajgiri
Andhra Pradesh, Rajahmundry
Andhra Pradesh, Srikakulam
Andhra Pradesh, Vijayawada
Andhra Pradesh, Vizianagaram

TRS gain from INC

Andhra Pradesh, Bhongir
Andhra Pradesh, Chelvella
Andhra Pradesh, Karimnagar
Andhra Pradesh, Mahabubabad
Andhra Pradesh, Nizamabad
Andhra Pradesh, Peddapalle
Andhra Pradesh, Warangal
Andhra Pradesh, Zahirabad

TRS gain from TDP

Andhra Pradesh, Adilabad

YSRC gain from INC

Andhra Pradesh, Aruku
Andhra Pradesh, Kadapa
Andhra Pradesh, Kurnool
Andhra Pradesh, Nandyal
Andhra Pradesh, Nellore
Andhra Pradesh, Ongole
Andhra Pradesh, Rajampet
Andhra Pradesh, Tirupati

YSRC gain from TDP

Andhra Pradesh, Khammam

INC gain from BJP

Assam, Silchar
Chhattisgarh, Durg
Karnataka, Chikkodi
Karnataka, Chitradurga
Karnataka, Raichur
Karnataka, Tumkur
Punjab, Amritsar

INC gain from JD(U)

Bihar, Supal

INC gain from JD(S)

Karnataka, Banglalore Rural

SS gain from INC

Maharashtra, Mumbai North West
Maharashtra, Mumbai South
Maharashtra, Mumbai South Central
Maharashtra, Ramtek
Maharashtra, Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg

SS gain from NCP

Maharashtra, Osmanabad
Maharashtra, Nashik
Maharashtra, Thane

BJD gain from INC

Odisha, Balasore
Odisha, Bargarh
Odisha, Kalahandi
Odisha, Nabarangpur
Odisha, Sambalpur

BJD gain from CPI

Odisha, Jagatsinghpur

LJS gain from JD(U)

Bihar, Hajipur
Bihar, Jamui
Bihar, Khagaria
Bihar, Munger
Bihar, Samastipur

LJS gain from RJD

Bihar, Vaishali

AAP gain from INC

Punjab, Fatehgarh Sahib
Punjab, Patiala
Punjab, Sangrur

AAP gain from SAD

Punjab, Faridkot

RJD gain from BJP

Bihar, Araria
Bihar, Bhagalpur

RJD gain from JD(U)

Bihar, Madehpura

RJD gain from Independent

Bihar, Banka

CPI(M) gain from INC

Kerala, Kannur
West Bengal, Murshidabad
West Bengal, Raiganj

PDP gain from JKNC

Jammu & Kashmir, Anatnag
Jammu & Kashmir, Baramulla
Jammu & Kashmir, Srinagar

RLS gain from JD(U)

Bihar, Jahanabad
Bihar, Karakat
Bihar, Sitamarhi

AIUDF gain from INC

Assam, Barpeta
Assam, Karimganj

AD gain from INC

Uttar Pradesh, Pratapgarh

AD gain from SP

Uttar Pradesh, Mirzapur

INLD gain from INC

Haryana, Sirsa

INLD gain from HJC

Haryana, Hisar

AINRC gain from INC

Puducherry, Puducherry

CPI gain from INC

Kerala, Thrissur

JD(U) gain from BJP

Bihar, Purnia

JMM gain from BJP

Jharkhand, Rajmahal

NCP gain from BJP

Bihar, Katihar

NCP gain from INC

Lakshadweep, Lakshadweep

NPP gain from NCP

Meghalaya, Tura

PMK gain from DMK

Tamil Nadu, Dharmapuri

SAD gain from INC

Punjab, Anandpur Sahib

SP gain from BJP

Uttar Pradesh, Azamgarh

RSP gain from INC

Kerala, Kollam

Ind gain from INC

Kerala, Chalakudy
Kerala, Idukki

Ind gain from BPF

Assam, Kokrajhar

[Sibboleth]

Full size[/img]

[finsobruce]

Now that's what i call a gains list...

[Devil Wincarnate]

May 19, 2014 18:53:00 GMT finsobruce said:

Now that's what i call a gains list...

So many acronyms.  Feels a bit like the Schleswig-Holstein Question: only three people ever knew what all these parties were, and one has died, one has gone mad and one has forgotten.

[Sibboleth]

I can give it a go if you want...

[neilm]

Please! Would be much appreciated.

[Sibboleth]

Note that all Indian political parties are really collections of local organisations held together by bonds of tradition and patronage, rather than centralised political parties in the European sense. First the two national parties:

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) 'Indian People's Party' - the political wing of the Sangh Parivar movement (which is pro-Hindutva; i.e. Hindu Supremacist) the BJP is best understood to westerners as a pseudo-fascist party not as a proxy for western conservatism nor as a theocratic organisation. It is not a threat to India's democratic institutions because India does different in this respect (see also the Communists). Of all India's political parties the BJP is also the most openly in favour of capitalism and the market economy, and some factions in the party (notably those associated with Modi) combine an almost messianic belief in the virtues of the market with a particularly extreme version of political Hindutva. Since the BJP's great electoral breakthrough in the early 1990s and the dissolution of the left-wing National Front coalition, the BJP has alternated in power with the INC. Its electoral base is with upper caste Hindus, but can poll well with members of the 'other backward castes' (i.e. lower caste but not Dalit) when they vote on communal rather than caste lines. For the most part it struggles to appeal in the Dravidian south of the country, although inroads have been made in recent elections.

Indian National Congress (INC) - the party of National Liberation and the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, once the natural party of government and still one of only two parties with a genuine national reach. It is officially a socialist party (but note that 'socialism' in the vocabulary of the INC really means 'rule by technocrats on behalf of The People'. The INC has always been in favour of modernisation but has rarely stood for equality) and yet is run as a monarchy. It is in favour of Indian Secularism except when it isn't. With the notable exception of Nehru himself, female members of The Family are more electorally successful than male ones. With only memories of National Liberation and loyalty to The Family acting as unifying factors, the INC suffers from acute factionalism and has a problem with splinter groups. Historically its electoral coalition was comprised mostly of Muslims, upper caste Hindus and Dalits, and what is left of it still looks quite like that. Since the 1990s Western journalists have written many obituaries of the party and are doing so again, but it will be back.

Next, the BJP's two permanent allies:

Shiv Sena (SS) 'Army of Shivaji' - whereas the BJP is best understood as a pseudo-fascist party, in the case of the Maharashtra-based Shiv Sena it is advisable to remove the 'pseudo'. It is a genuinely nauseating organisation, combining a particular extreme version of Hindutva with rabid Marathi nationalism and the personality cult of the late and loathsome Bal Thackeray. Historically strongest in Bombay (SS were largely responsible for renaming the city Mumbai, incidentally) and the coastal parts of Maharashtra, they are now strong throughout the state, though much of this is presumably due to the electoral pact with the BJP.

Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) 'Supreme Akali Party' - a (no, the) Sikh theocratic party and a major player in the state of Punjab where it vies for power with Congress. It is mostly a party of rural Punjab and of members of the Jat caste at that. Corruption problems saw it lose votes in the recent election to the Aam Aadmi party, which was amusing.

And the INC's most sure - if ironic - ally:

Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) - Sharad Pawar - perhaps vaguely familiar to some here as a cricket administrator - was a Congress party bigwig in Maharashtra and wanted very much to be Prime Minister. Any chance of this happening ended when Sonia Gandhi finally agreed to take over the INC for the 1999 elections. Pawar and his cronies declared that this was unacceptable as she was not Indian by birth and left the INC to form the NCP and fought the elections on their own. By 2004, however, the NCP was part of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (headed by... er... Sonia Gandhi) and has remained so even as other parties have left. The NCP and INC now have a lasting electoral pact in Maharashtra that extends to state elections. The Party's official symbol is an alarm clock.

More later.

[middyman]

I was recently in India and spoke about the elections. From Lucknow to Srinagar, everyone claimed to have voted for the BJP, not because of its philosophy or policies, but for Modi the man. They looked at what he had done for the economy in Gujurat, and then compared it with the Indian economy overall.

[Sibboleth]

Larger version here

[Sibboleth]

Ten highest BJP votes:

1. Gujarat, Surat - 76.7%
2. Gujarat, Vadodara - 73.9%
3. Gujarat, Navsari - 71.3%
4. Maharashtra, Mumbai North - 70.8%
5. Gujarat, Gandhinagar - 68.9%
6. Madhya Pradesh, Vidisha - 67.2%
7. Rajasthan, Jodhpur - 67.1%
8. Rajasthan, Jaipur - 67.0%
9. Rajasthan, Rajasmand - 66.8%
10. Madhya Pradesh, Hoshangabad - 66.1%

Ten lowest BJP votes:

1. Lakshadweep, Lakshadweep - 0.4%
2. Jammu & Kashmir, Anatnag - 1.3%
3. Jammu & Kashmir, Baramulla - 1.4%
4. Jammu & Kashmir, Srinagar - 1.5%
5. Sikkim, Sikkim - 2.4%
6. Tripura, Tripura West - 5.2%
7. West Bengal, Mathurapur - 5.3%
8. Kerala, Kannur - 5.5%
9. Tamil Nadu, Thanjavur - 5.9%
10. Kerala, Idduki - 6.3%