Labour's 2014 Local Council Performance Ahead of 22nd May

[middleenglander]

As posted in another thread, there were 43 by-elections in January to March 2014, with Labour retaining 12 seats whilst gaining 2 - 1 from Conservative and 1 from Liberal Democrat - whilst losing 2 to the Conservatives.  Labour did not contest 6 of the seats with 2 it contested being in Scotland and 1 in Wales which do not have annual elections on 22nd May.

This thread starts by examining the 34 English contests where Labour had a candidate during the first 3 months of 2014. It attempts to highlight any patterns that are apparent is a disparate set of results.  

Labour polled less than 15% in 9 of the by-elections
- ranging from 2.9% in Ashford BC, Wye to 10.7% in Hampshire CC, Petersfield Butser
* Labour came 4th or 5th in all the nine seats
* four seats had the previous election in 2013; Labour share up 1% in one, down 1%, 5% and ~10% in the others
* five seats last fought in 2011 with Labour then not contesting one; share fell in remaining four by 4%, 5% and 8% (x2)

Labour polled between 15% and 30% in 11 of the by-elections
- ranging from 16.7% in East Hants DC, Petersfield Bell Hill to 28.6% in Tendring DC, St John's
* Labour came second in 8 of the by-elections, one a straight fight with a  Conservative, and third in the other 3 with one having just 3 candidates
* 10 were in seats with last election in 2011 when Labour did not contest two; share rose in 3 by 1%, 2% & 4%, falling in 5 by 2%, 3%(x2), 4% & 14%
- Conservative to Labour swing of 2% / 3% in two seats, Labour to Conservative swing of 3% in one
* remaining seat Runnymede BC, Chertsey Meads had annual elections in 2012 and by-election September 2012
- Labour share up 9% against May 2012 with 8½% swing from Conservative, share down ½% since by-election with ~1% swing to Conservative

Labour polled between 30% and 46% in 7 of the by-elections
- ranging from 32.6% in Gedling BC, Gedling to 45.1% in Salford MB, Swinton South
* Conservative gained Birmingham MB, Kingstanding from Labour on 7% swing since 2012 and 4% since 2011
* Conservative gained Bury MB, Ramsbottom from Labour on 12% swing since 2012 and 6% since 2011
* Labour gained Gedling BC, Gedling from Liberal Democrats on a very small swing from Labour since 2011
* Labour gained Trafford MB, Broadheath from Conservative on ~2% swing to Conservative since 2012 but 3% to Labour since 2011
* Labour retained remaining 3 seats with Conservative in second
- swing ~3% to Labour in both Dartford BC, Stone & Nottingham UA, Clifton North since 2011 and ~2% to Conservative in Salford MB, Swinton South since 2011 & 2012

Labour polled over 46% in the remaining 7 by-elections which were retained
- ranging from 48.1% in Sunderland MB, St Anne's to 72.5% in Luton UA, Farley
* UKIP second in all 5 seats with a candidate, 3 not previously contested: Labour share fell by 3%, 7%, 10% & 24% in 4 rising by 17% in 5th
- ~6% swing UKIP to Labour in Luton UA, Farley since 2011, ~7% Labour to UKIP Sheffield MB, Arbourthorne since 2012
* Conservative second in Amber Valley BC, Heanor East on a 1% swing to Conservative since 2012
* Independent second in Knowsley MB, Longview as Labour share fell from 90%+ in 2011 and 2012 to 65% in by-election

[Deleted]

Will you be working your way thru all the parties?

[middleenglander]

Apr 1, 2014 6:07:20 GMT justlooking said:

Will you be working your way thru all the parties?

Not at the moment but the table below gives some relevant information for the 38 by-election in England during January to March.

Vote share	Conservative	Labour	Lib Dems	UKIP
No candidate	-	4	10	8
Under 5%	1	2	11	-
5% to 10%	3	6	3	3
10% to 15%	-	1	-	6
15% to 20%	5	2	3	8
20% to 30%	5	9	3	12
30% to 40%	13	3	6	-
40% to 50%	8	6	2	-
Over 50%	3	5	-	1

During this time Conservatives defended 20 seats, gaining 2 from Labour and 1 from Staffordshire Independent
- but losing 8 , 4 to the Lib Dems, 2 to Independents and 1 each to Labour & UKIP

Labour defended 12 seats in England, gaining 1 from Conservatives and 1 from Lib Dems whilst losing 2 to Conservatives 

Lib Dems defended 2 seats, gaining 4 from Conservatives whilst losing 1 to Labour

[Deleted]

Thanks for that

[middleenglander]

There were 11 by-elections during April and the first 2 weeks of May, with 8 in England, 2 in Wales and 1 in Scotland.

Labour did not contest the East Lindsey, Horncastle by-election although it had a full list of 3 candidates in 2011 polling around a 11% share. Of the remaining 7 English contests:

Labour polled less than 15% in 5 of the by-elections:
* 6.1% in East Cambridgeshire, Sutton coming 4th and last behind Liberal Democrat, Conservative and UKIP
- share fell from circa 30% in 2011 for its single candidate in the 2 member ward although did not contest 2007
* 6.1% in North Kesteven, Osbournby coming 3rd out of 4, a long way behind Conservative and Lincolnshire Independent
- did not contest this single member ward in either 2011 or 2007 although polled 7½% in 2003
* 11.0% in Vale of White Horse, Wantage Charlton coming 3rd out of 4th behind Conservative and Liberal Democrat
- share fell from ~18% in 2011 with 2 candidates in 3 member ward but little changed from both 2008 by-election and 2007
* 11.7% in Pendle, Blacko & Higherford coming 3rd out of 4 behind Conservative and UKIP
- share fell from 20% in 2011 in this single member ward and was only slightly higher than 2007 and 2003
* 12.1% in Fenland, Roman Bank coming 3rd out of 5 behind Conservative and UKIP
- share fell from ~28% in 2011 for its single candidate in 3 member ward where Conservatives were returned unopposed in 2007

Labour polled between 30% and 46% in the other 2 by-elections
* 36.5% in North East Derbyshire, Coal Aston coming second in 3 way contest in a seat with prospect of gaining from Conservative
- share little changed since 2011 in this 2 member ward (~1% swing to Labour) and around 4% higher than in 2007
* 45.8% in Cumbria, Belle Vue retaining seat on a swing to Conservative of 10.6% since 2013 but 3½% to Labour since 2009