Prediction Competition for April / May 2014

[middleenglander]

Amended for the additional by-election in Caerphilly, Blackwood

There are 9 by-elections called for April and 1 in each of the first two weeks of May giving a total of 11.

Unless there is a surge of contests ahead of May 22nd I intend to run a combined prediction competition for April and the first part of May. As is usual, there will be no competition for 22nd May and we will have to see how many by-elections there are during June.

So for April / May we have:

1 on 3rd April
4 on 10th April
nil on 17th April
4 on 24th April
1 on 1st May
1 on 8th May

7 of the contests are in District Councils where the seat was last contested in 2011
1 is for a County Council lasted contested in May 2013
together with 1 in Scotland and 2 in Wales last contested in 2012

Conservatives are defending 6 seats, 2 following the death of the former councillor, 2 a resignation and 2 disqualification
- one for non-attendance and one following a 5 year jail sentence for fraud
Labour is defending 3 seats, 2 following a death and 1 a resignation
Independents defend 2 seats, 1 follow a death and 1 a resignation

The Highland election is being contested by SNP, UKIP, Independent, Christian and No Description so is included in the competition.

With all nominations now published:
Conservatives are contesting 10 of the 11 seats, Labour 9, Lib Dem 5, UKIP 8, SNP 1, Plaid Cymru 1
whilst there are 5 Independents with Green, Lincolnshire Independent, Christian and No Description each having 1 candidate
a total of 43 candidates.

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the day of the election.

[Deleted]

Already dreading the Highland prediction.

[brianj]

And to break the ice...
Pendle, Blacko and Higherford: Con 44, UKIP 32, Lab 16, LibDem 8. The parties do what they do best.

(Is there a curse on that Highland seat? Oh well.)

[Deleted]

Pendle, Blacko and Higherford:

Conservative: 62%
Labour: 17%
UKIP: 14%
Liberal Democrat: 7%

[myth11]

Con 58
ukip 22
lab 11
lib Dem 9

[Robert Waller]

Conservative: 55%
Labour: 14%
UKIP: 21%
Liberal Democrat: 10%

[hempie]

Con 57
Lab 18
UKIP 17
LD 8

[Deleted]

Con 57
UKIP 22
Lab 14
LD 7

[greatkingrat]

Con 63, UKIP 16, Lab 14, LD 7

[Davıd Boothroyd]

PENDLE Blacko and Higherford: C 56, Lab 21, UKIP 18, L Dem 5

[hedgehog]

Con 60
Ukip 18
Lab 12
Lib 10

[thirdchill]

Con 52
UKIP 24
Lab 18
LD 6

[marksenior]

Pendle Con 54 UKIP 22 Lab 16 LD 8

[Pete Whitehead]

Con 56.2
UKIP 20.6
Lab 15.5
LD 7.7

[Philip Davies]

Apr 2, 2014 22:40:11 GMT Philip Davies said:

PENDLE - Blacko & Higherford

Noel MCEVOY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 63.0
Robert OLIVER (Labour Party Candidate) 13.7
Darren REYNOLDS (Liberal Democrat) 7.5
Mick WADDINGTON (UK Independence Party) 15.8

[Tony Otim]

Apr 1, 2014 20:22:20 GMT Tony Otim said:

Pendle:

Con 61.1
UKIP 17.8
Lab 14.9
LD 6.2

[middleenglander]

14 entries with hedgehog and thirdchill making a maiden appearance whilst catholicleft and greatkingrat are welcomed back.

Pendle 100% Conservative hold with a share ranging 44% (brianj) to 63% (greatkingrat & PhilDav)
- 100% Lib Dems in 4th place whilst all but Catholicleft, David Boothroyd and hempie have UKIP as runner-up.

[middleenglander]

Subject to verification:

Pendle, Blacko & Higherford
greatkingrat & PhilDav 7.3 faults, tonyotim 11.1, CatholicLeft 12.3., hedgehog 13.3, Myth11 18.3, hempie & Joe 19.3, Pete Whitehead 20.9, Robert Waller 23.3, David Boothroyd 23.6, Mark Senior 25.3, thirdchill 29.6, brianj 45.3

[Tony Otim]

Congratulations to greatkingrat and Phil for the week!

Nice to have recovered a bit of dignity after last week's humiliation...

[thirdchill]

I didn't expect the conservative vote to hold up that well, given a disqualification and four candidates standing instead of two. That was my downfall!

Better luck next week!