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Post by Devonian on May 3, 2014 13:39:28 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on May 6, 2014 10:19:32 GMT
2009 Results Latvia: Latvia, lost a seat from 9 to 8 in 2009. This was temporarily restored by Lisbon, but is lost again this year. | Civic Union (PS) | 24.3% | +24.3% | 2 seats | +2 | EPP | | Harmony Centre (SC) | 19.6% | +13.2% | 2 seats | +2 | S&D/EUL-NGL* | | For Human Rights in United Latvia (PCTVL) | 9.7% | -1% | 1 seat | nc | EGP-EFA | | Latvia First Party/Latvian Way (LPP/LC) | 7.5% | -2.3% | 1 seat | nc | ALDE | | For Fatherland and Freedom/LNNK (TB/LNNK) | 7.5% | -22.3% | 1 seat | -3 | ECR | | New Era Party (JL) | 6.7% | -13.1% | 1 seat | -1 | EPP |
The other seat was lost by the People's Party (TP) (EPP aligned). * SC is an alliance between Social Democratic Party (SDPS) 1 seat (S&D) and Socialist Party (LSP) 1 seat (EUL-NGL). This time round it looks like that alliance will top the polls with the Socialists picking up an extra seat. PS, JL + SCP (Society for Other Politics) (all EPP) have combined, but look set for just 2 seats between them. ZZS (Union of Greens and Farmers) could pick up up to 2 seats and are likely to be EGP aligned or at least the Green Party part of the alliance is already. TB LNNK look like holding their seat on a slightly increased vote, whilst LPP/LC has now been dissolved. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on May 6, 2014 16:04:04 GMT
2009 Results Estonia 6 seats: | Centre Party (KESK) | 26.1% | +8.6% | 2 seats | +1 | ALDE | | Indrek Tarand | 25.8% | +25.8% | 1 seat | +1 | EGP-EFA | | Reform Party (RE) | 15.3% | +3.1% | 1 seat | nc | ALDE | | Pro Patria and REs Publica Union (IRL) | 12.2% | +12.2% | 1 seat | +1 | EPP | | Social Democratic Party (SDE) | 8.7% | -28.1% | 1 seat | -2 | s&D |
A fairly disastrous time for the Social Democrats, which could have been worse as the independant Tarand got enough votes to take their last seat if there had been two of him. This time round it looks like all 5 above will keep 1 seat (although Tarand might be slightly touch and go) with a close 4 way battle for who gets the final seat. |
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Post by iainbhx on May 17, 2014 19:13:10 GMT
Hungary Europoll reported today
FIDESZ 56%
Jobbik 17%
MSZP 14%
E-PM 4%
LMP 4%
FIDESZ 14 seats, Jobbik 4 seats (+1), MSZP 3 seats (-1)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 25, 2014 18:59:28 GMT
From another place... Romania Exit Poll: PSD-UNPR-PC 41,01PNL 14,92 PDL 11,82 UDMR 7,1 PMP 6,70 Mircea Diaconu 5,91 PP-DD 3,45 Forţa Civică 2,11 PRM 2,55 Alţii 4,43 stiri.tvr.ro/exclusivitate--exit-poll-curs-avangarde--psd-unpr-pc--pe-primul-loc--primele-reactii_45082.html |
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Post by iainbhx on May 25, 2014 20:03:19 GMT
Poland Exit Poll
Platforma Obywatelska - 32.8% (19 seats)
Prawo i Sprawiedliwość - 31.8% (19 seats)
Sojusz Lewicy Demokratycznej - Unia Pracy 9.6% (5 seats)
Kongres Nowej Prawicy (not in EP) - 7.2% (4 seats)
Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, EPP - 7.0% (4 seats)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 1, 2014 20:51:58 GMT
2009 Results Czech Republic (reduced to 22 seats from 24 in 2004): A 5% threshold applied | ODS (Civil Democratic Party) | 31.5% | +1.4% | 9 seats | nc | ECR | | CSSD (Social Democrats) | 22.4% | +13.6% | 7 seats | +5 | PES | | KSCM (Communists) | 14.2% | -6.1% | 4 Seats | -2 | EUL-NGL | | KDU-CSL (Christian Democrats) | 7.6% | -1.9% | 2 seats | nc | EPP | | Sovereignty | 4.6% | +4.6 | 0 | 0 | none | | SNK European Democrats* | 1.7% | -9.4% | 0 | -3 | |
*There were a further 4 parties ahead of them, but included here to show sharp decline. The other two seats had previously been held by NEZDEM (independant democrats). The Czechs lose a further seat this year. The polls indicate that ODS are in for a real hammering and may only retain 1 seat out of 9. ANO 2011 who are currently unaffiliated are running CSSD very close and could actually top the poll. CSSD could lose a couple of seats. The Communists are about level, whilst the Christian Democrats could lose 1 out of 2, but EPP will be boosted by TOP 09 who could pick up several. Finally Dawn should get 1 as well (also unaffiliated at the moment) 2014 results, Czech Republic: | ANO 2011 | 16.1% | +16.1% | 4 seats | +4 | ALDE* | | TOP 09 - STAN | 16.0% | +16.0% | 4 seats | +4 | EPP | | CSSD | 14.2% | -8.2% | 4 seats | -3 | S&D | | KSCM | 11.0% | -3.2% | 3 seats | -1 | EUL-NGL | | KDU-CSL | 10.0% | +2.3% | 3 seats | +1 | EPP | | ODS | 7.7% | -23.8% | 2 seats | -7 | ECR | | Party of Free Citizens | 5.2% | +4.0% | 1 seat | +1 | EFD | | Czech Pirate Party | 4.8% | +4.8% | 0 |
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| | Green Party | 3.8% | +1.7 |
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* To be confirmed Out with the old in with the new. ODS did indeed take a hammering. CSSD and the Communists did worse than predicted, whilst the Christian Democrats actually picked up a seat. Dawn finished a little behind the Greens, so weren't really in the running and the Pirates came close to making it a tougher job for Farage to form a group. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 2, 2014 13:49:31 GMT
2009 Results Estonia 6 seats: | Centre Party (KESK) | 26.1% | +8.6% | 2 seats | +1 | ALDE | | Indrek Tarand | 25.8% | +25.8% | 1 seat | +1 | EGP-EFA | | Reform Party (RE) | 15.3% | +3.1% | 1 seat | nc | ALDE | | Pro Patria and REs Publica Union (IRL) | 12.2% | +12.2% | 1 seat | +1 | EPP | | Social Democratic Party (SDE) | 8.7% | -28.1% | 1 seat | -2 | s&D |
A fairly disastrous time for the Social Democrats, which could have been worse as the independant Tarand got enough votes to take their last seat if there had been two of him. This time round it looks like all 5 above will keep 1 seat (although Tarand might be slightly touch and go) with a close 4 way battle for who gets the final seat. 2014 Results: | Reform Party (RE) | 24.3% | +9.0% | 2 seats | +1 | ALDE | | Centre Party (KESK) | 22.4% | -3.7% | 1 seat | -1 | ALDE | | Pro Patria and REs Publica Union (IRL) | 13.9% | +1.7% | 1 seat | nc | EPP | | Social Democratic Party (SDE) | 13.6% | +4.9% | 1 seat | nc | S&D | Indrek Tarand
| 13.2% | -12.6% | 1 seat | nc | EGP |
So the ALDE affiliated Reform Party take the final seat from the ALDE affiliated Centre Party. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 3, 2014 20:00:59 GMT
Hungary 2009: Again, reduced from 24 seats to 22 and will lose a further one this year: | Fidesz | 56.4% | +9.0% | 14 seats | +2 | EPP | | MSZP (Socialist) | 17.4% | -16.9% | 4 seats | -5 | PES | | Jobbik | 14.8% | +14.8% | 3 seats | +3 | none | | MDF (Democratic Forum) | 5.3% | nc | 1 seat | nc | ECR | | LMP (Politics can be Different - Liberal Greens) | 2.6% | +2.6% | 0 | nc | | | SZDSZ (Alliance of Free Democrats) | 2.2% | -5.5% | 0 | -2 | ALDE |
Since then both MDF and SZDSZ have ceased to be. New to the scene are the Democratic Coalition (DK), Together 2014 and Hungarian Liberals who are joining with MSZP for the national elections under the banner Unity for the national elections (although I think will stand separately for Europe. The Hungarian Liberals are unlikely to feature, but DK (PES) and Egyutt 2014 (ALDE) could both win a seat or 2 at the expense of Fidesz with the Socialists and Jobbik staying around current levels according to the latest polls. 2014 Results: | Fidesz | 51.5% | -4.9% | 12 seats | -2 | EPP | | Jobbik | 14.7% | -0.1% | 3 seats | nc |
| | MSZP | 10.9% | -6.9% | 2 seats | -2 | S& D | | DK | 9.8% | +9.8% | 2 seats | +2 | S&D | | E14 & PM | 7.3% | +7.3% | 1 seat | +1 | EGP* | | LMP | 5.0% | +2.4% | 1 seat | +1 | EGP |
I had previously seen Egyutt 2014 listed a ALDE affiliated. I'm not sure if this is still the case, but their coalition partners PM (Dialogue for Hungary) won the one seat and they are apparently joining or have joined EGP. In the end the Socialists did worse than expected and were almost passed by the Democratic Coalition. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 10, 2014 19:52:04 GMT
2009 Results Latvia: Latvia, lost a seat from 9 to 8 in 2009. This was temporarily restored by Lisbon, but is lost again this year. | Civic Union (PS) | 24.3% | +24.3% | 2 seats | +2 | EPP | | Harmony Centre (SC) | 19.6% | +13.2% | 2 seats | +2 | S&D/EUL-NGL* | | For Human Rights in United Latvia (PCTVL) | 9.7% | -1% | 1 seat | nc | EGP-EFA | | Latvia First Party/Latvian Way (LPP/LC) | 7.5% | -2.3% | 1 seat | nc | ALDE | | For Fatherland and Freedom/LNNK (TB/LNNK) | 7.5% | -22.3% | 1 seat | -3 | ECR | | New Era Party (JL) | 6.7% | -13.1% | 1 seat | -1 | EPP |
The other seat was lost by the People's Party (TP) (EPP aligned). * SC is an alliance between Social Democratic Party (SDPS) 1 seat (S&D) and Socialist Party (LSP) 1 seat (EUL-NGL). This time round it looks like that alliance will top the polls with the Socialists picking up an extra seat. PS, JL + SCP (Society for Other Politics) (all EPP) have combined, but look set for just 2 seats between them. ZZS (Union of Greens and Farmers) could pick up up to 2 seats and are likely to be EGP aligned or at least the Green Party part of the alliance is already. TB LNNK look like holding their seat on a slightly increased vote, whilst LPP/LC has now been dissolved. Polls may have been ever so slightly wrong here... 2014 results: | Vienotiba (PS,JL+SCP) | 46.2% | +11.4% | 4 seats | +1
| EPP | | TB/LNNK-VL! | 14.3% | +4.0% | 1 seat | nc | ECR | | Harmony | 13.0% | -6.6% | 1 seat | -1 | S&D* | | ZZS | 8.3% | +4.6% | 1 seat | +1 | none | | LKS (Latvian Russian Union, formerly PCTVL) | 6.4% | -3.3% | 1 seat | nc | EGP-EFA |
* The Social Democrats kept their seat and the LAtvian Socialist (EUL) lost theirs. So quite a comprehensive victory for the right. One half of ZZS is EGP aligned, so I wouldn't be surprised if they ended up there in the end, but I'm not sure from which side of the coalition the MEp comes. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 11, 2014 8:55:17 GMT
2009 Results Lithuania. Lithuania lost a seat to 12 in 2009. They suffer a further 1 seat reduction this year. | TS-LKD (Homeland Union - Lithuania Christian Democrats | 26.9% | +11.6% | 4 seats | +2 | EPP | | LSDP (Lithuanian Social Democrats) | 18.6% | +4.2% | 3 seats | +1 | S&D | | TT (Order & Justice) | 12.2% | +5.4% | 2 seats | +1 | EFD | | DP (Labour Party) | 8.8% | -21.4% | 1 seat | -4 | ALDE | | LLRA (Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania) | 8.4% | +2.7% | 1 seat | +1 | ECR | | LRLS (Liberal Movement of the Republic of LIthuania) | 7.4% | +7.4% | 1 seat | +1 | ALDE | | LiCS (Liberal and Centre Union) | 3.5% | -7.7% | 0 seats | -2 | ALDE |
The other seat was lost by VNDS (Peasants Popular Union) who dropped to just 1.8%. A pretty disastrous election for the Labour party. This year the Social Democrats look like they'll be comfortably top and pick up a couple of seats, TT will gain votes but maybe no extra seats. TS-LKD could see their representation and vote halved. The Labour Party and LRLS will hold on and the Poles will miss out. Again the polls proved to be rather out and over-stating the left/undestimating the right and centre: 2014 results: | TS-LKD | 17.4% | -9.5% | 2 seats | -2 | EPP | | LSDP | 17.3% | -1.3% | 2 seats | -1 | S&D | | LRLS | 16.6% | +9.2% | 2 seats | +1 | ALDE | | TT | 14.3% | +2.1% | 2 seats | nc | EFD | | DP | 12.8% | +4.0% | 1 seat | nc | ALDE | | LLRA/AWPL | 8.1% | -0.3% | 1 seat | nc | ECR | | LVZS (Lithuanian Peasants and Greens Union) | 6.6% | +4.8% | 1 seat | +1 | none* |
* Despite the name, LVZS were previously members of the now defunct AEN and have apparently applied for EPP membership this year. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 12, 2014 9:48:25 GMT
2009 result for Poland | PO | 44.4% | +20.3% | 25 seats | +10 | EPP | | PiS | 27.4% | +14.7% | 15 seats | +8 | ECR | | SLD - UP | 12.3% | +3% | 7 seats | +2 | PES | | PSL | 7.0% | +0.7% | 3 seats | -1 | EPP |
The big losers were SRP (Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland) who lost all 6 seats falling 9.3% to just 1.5%. The League of Polish Families had won 10 seats in 2004 but dissolved in 2007. Poland gained an extra seat in 2011, which I think went to PiS, who seem to have had a few problems since - 4 of their MEPS going Poland Together (PRJG) and 4 to United Poland (SP) and a further two going independant (I think, not totally sure on all those but the figures add up that way). However, this doesn't seemed to have hurt their vote share judging by those polling figures. PO look like their in for some serious losses though. 2014 Results: | PO (Civic Platform) | 32.1% | -12.3% | 19 seats | -6 | EPP | | PiS (Law and Justice) | 31.8% | +4.4% | 19 seats | +4 | ECR | | SLD-UP (Democratic Left Labour alliance) | 9.4% | -2.9% | 5 seats | -2 | S&D | | KNP (Congress of New RIght) | 7.2% | +7.2% | 4 seats | +4 | | | PSL (People's Party) | 6.8% | -0.3% | 4 seats | +1 | EPP |
PO just managed to hold on to 1st place and limited their seat losses. KNP are now one of the most sought allies in the eurosceptic right group formation merry-go-round. The other significant thing is that PiS are now the joint largest party in the ECR group. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 13, 2014 11:17:47 GMT
2009 Results, Slovakia. Slovakia lost a seat to 13 and remains on 13 this year. | SMER (Direction - Social Democracy) | 32.0% | +15.1% | 5 seats | +2 | PES | | SDKU-DS (Democratic and Christian Union) | 17.0% | -0.1% | 2 seats | -1 | EPP | | SMK (Party of Hungarian Coalition) | 11.3% | -1.9% | 2 seats | nc | EPP | | KDH (Christian Democratic Movement) | 10.9% | -5.3% | 2 seats | -1 | EPP | | LS-HZDS (People's Party - Movement for a Democratic Slovakia) | 9.0% | -8.1% | 1 seats | -2 | ALDE | | SNS (National Party) | 5.6% | +3.5% | 1 seat | +1 | EFD | | SaS (Freedom and Solidarity) | 4.7% | +4.7% | 0 seats | nc | ALDE |
SMER and KDH look like keeping their 5 and 2 seats respectively with a further 8 parties competing for the remaining 6 seats, of which the safest looks like being the ECR linked OLaNO (ordinary people and independant personalities), followed by SDKU. Possible other newcomers include SaS and the EPP aligned Most-Hid (a breakawy from SMK. 2014 Results: | SMER | 24.9% | -7.9% | 4 seats | -1 | S&D | | KDH | 13.2% | +2.3% | 2 seats | nc | EPP | | SDKU-DS | 7.8% | -9.2% | 2 seats | nc | EPP | | OLaNO | 7.5% | +7.5% | 1 seat | +1 | ECR~ | | Nova | 6.8% | +4.7% | 1 seat | +1 | ECR | | SaS | 6.7% | +2.0% | 1 seat | +1 | ALDE | | SMK-MKP | 6.5% | -4.8% | 1 seat | -1 | EPP | | Most-Hid | 5.8% | +5.8% | 1 seat | +1 | EPP | | TIP | 3.7% | +3.7% | 0 seats | nc | | | SNS | 3.6% | -1.9% | 0 seats | -1 | EFD |
~ Membership agreed post-election So Smer did a little worse than expected and SDKU just held on to their 2nd seat. Also worth noting here - turnout 13.0% - the lowest in the whole EU. |
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