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Post by Devonian on Feb 16, 2014 14:51:10 GMT
European Elections for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary
Its occurred to me that rather than starting 27 separate threads for each of the countries in the Union (most of which would end up being rather short) which would rather clutter up the message board it would be a good idea to group some of the smaller countries together by region.
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Post by Devonian on Feb 16, 2014 17:19:48 GMT
Opinion polls for the European election in Poland Homo Homini 26/01 Pis 30% PO 26% SLD 20% PSL 8% Europa+ 6% PR 5% KNP 3% SP 2% ewybory.eu/sondaz-homo-homini-do-parlamentu-europejskiego-26-01-2014/PiS is the right wing Law and Justice Party and is the main opposition in Poland. It is in the Conservative Party's group in the European Parliament PO is the center right Civic Platform Party and leads the coalition government in Poland. It is part of the European People's Party SLD is the center left Democratic Left Alliance and is part of the Socialist group PSL is the Polish People's Party and is a centrist party in coalition with the PO in government. It is part of the European People's Party Europa+ is a coalition of smaller left wing parties formed to contest this election PR is Poland Together and is a center right party formed last year. It gained MEPs defecting from other parties and is in the Conservative Party's group in the European Parliament KNP is Congress of the New Right and is a libertarian party formed in 2011 SP is United Poland and is a right wing breakaway from the Law and Justice Party. It sits in the UKIP group in the European Parliament |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 18, 2014 23:03:57 GMT
2009 result for Poland | PO | 44.4% | +20.3% | 25 seats | +10 | EPP | | PiS | 27.4% | +14.7% | 15 seats | +8 | ECR | | SLD - UP | 12.3% | +3% | 7 seats | +2 | PES | | PSL | 7.0% | +0.7% | 3 seats | -1 | EPP |
The big losers were SRP (Self-Defence of the Republic of Poland) who lost all 6 seats falling 9.3% to just 1.5%. The League of Polish Families had won 10 seats in 2004 but dissolved in 2007. Poland gained an extra seat in 2011, which I think went to PiS, who seem to have had a few problems since - 4 of their MEPS going Poland Together (PRJG) and 4 to United Poland (SP) and a further two going independant (I think, not totally sure on all those but the figures add up that way). However, this doesn't seemed to have hurt their vote share judging by those polling figures. PO look like their in for some serious losses though. |
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Post by Devonian on Feb 21, 2014 7:40:10 GMT
Opinion Poll in the Czech Republic. This is a poll for a national election but shows the state of the parties Factum 07/02/14 Social Democrats 20.9% ANO 2011 18.5% Communists 17.8% TOP 09 11% Dawn 7.6% ODS 6.7% KDU - CSL 5.4% www.factum.cz/547_podpora-koalicnich-stran-je-stabilni |
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Post by Devonian on Feb 21, 2014 13:23:24 GMT
Slovakia. Another national opinion poll, this time for Slovakia Poll by Polis Jan 24 - 2 Feb Smer 42% Christian Democratic Movement (KDH) 10.1% Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OĽaNO) 8.8% Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKÚ) 7.3% Most-Híd 6.6% Party of Hungarian Community (SMK) 6.0%
Freedom and Solidarity (SaS) 4.2%
Slovak National Party (SNS) 3.8%
NOVA 3.7%
spectator.sme.sk/articles/view/52875/2/poll_shows_smer_at_42_percent.html
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Post by Devonian on Feb 21, 2014 13:32:17 GMT
Hungary. There are national elections in Hungary on April 6 so the European elections won't be getting any attention there until after that This is a recent poll for those Parliamentary Elections Poll by Ipsos 13 February Fidesz 51% Unity 33% Jobbik 13% LMP 2% (Unity is a coaltion of left wing parties, the largest of which is the MSZP) www.ipsos.hu/site/fidesz-vezet-s-ellenz-ki-es-lyek/ |
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Post by erlend on Feb 23, 2014 20:39:21 GMT
51% for very ex liberals Fidesz and 13 for fascists!
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Feb 26, 2014 18:30:14 GMT
I'm in Budapest until Sunday.
Poster count is about:
55% Fidesz (all concentrating on their local candidates)
40% Unity (mainly concentrating on Attila Mesterhazy, although the office next to my hotel looks like their local campaign HQ, and the local candidate is pushed heavily on their windows)
5% Jobbik (I've only seen some in Buda, all pushing their local candidate- she looks far to young to be a 1958 veteran!)
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 4, 2014 15:26:58 GMT
2009 Results Czech Republic (reduced to 22 seats from 24 in 2004): A 5% threshold applied | ODS (Civil Democratic Party) | 31.5% | +1.4% | 9 seats | nc | ECR | | CSSD (Social Democrats) | 22.4% | +13.6% | 7 seats | +5 | PES | | KSCM (Communists) | 14.2% | -6.1% | 4 Seats | -2 | EUL-NGL | | KDU-CSL (Christian Democrats) | 7.6% | -1.9% | 2 seats | nc | EPP | | Sovereignty | 4.6% | +4.6 | 0 | 0 | none | | SNK European Democrats* | 1.7% | -9.4% | 0 | -3 | |
*There were a further 4 parties ahead of them, but included here to show sharp decline. The other two seats had previously been held by NEZDEM (independant democrats). The Czechs lose a further seat this year. The polls indicate that ODS are in for a real hammering and may only retain 1 seat out of 9. ANO 2011 who are currently unaffiliated are running CSSD very close and could actually top the poll. CSSD could lose a couple of seats. The Communists are about level, whilst the Christian Democrats could lose 1 out of 2, but EPP will be boosted by TOP 09 who could pick up several. Finally Dawn should get 1 as well (also unaffiliated at the moment) |
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Tony Otim
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Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 4, 2014 16:04:29 GMT
Hungary 2009: Again, reduced from 24 seats to 22 and will lose a further one this year: | Fidesz | 56.4% | +9.0% | 14 seats | +2 | EPP | | MSZP (Socialist) | 17.4% | -16.9% | 4 seats | -5 | PES | | Jobbik | 14.8% | +14.8% | 3 seats | +3 | none | | MDF (Democratic Forum) | 5.3% | nc | 1 seat | nc | ECR | | LMP (Politics can be Different - Liberal Greens) | 2.6% | +2.6% | 0 | nc | | | SZDSZ (Alliance of Free Democrats) | 2.2% | -5.5% | 0 | -2 | ALDE |
Since then both MDF and SZDSZ have ceased to be. New to the scene are the Democratic Coalition (DK), Together 2014 and Hungarian Liberals who are joining with MSZP for the national elections under the banner Unity for the national elections (although I think will stand separately for Europe. The Hungarian Liberals are unlikely to feature, but DK (PES) and Egyutt 2014 (ALDE) could both win a seat or 2 at the expense of Fidesz with the Socialists and Jobbik staying around current levels according to the latest polls. |
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Post by Devonian on Mar 12, 2014 15:51:58 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 13, 2014 11:43:57 GMT
There are some quite wildly different scores for SLD from different pollsters - anywhere between 7 and 20%.
Just for information, Europa+ are also linked to the Socialist group in the parliament if they get in.
With a 5% threshold there's going to be quite a few missing out... but with PO set to lose quite a few seats and PSL borderline to get in at all, not looking good for EPP.
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Post by Devonian on Mar 13, 2014 14:35:26 GMT
There are some quite wildly different scores for SLD from different pollsters - anywhere between 7 and 20%. Just for information, Europa+ are also linked to the Socialist group in the parliament if they get in. With a 5% threshold there's going to be quite a few missing out... but with PO set to lose quite a few seats and PSL borderline to get in at all, not looking good for EPP. This prediction was made 12/03 for the elction outcome in Polands EP constituencies Pis 20 seats PO 16 SLD 8 E+ 4 PSL 3  300polityka.pl/news/2014/03/12/nowa-symulacja-wynikow-wyborow-do-pe-traca-po-i-pis-zyskuje-lewica/ |
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Post by Devonian on Apr 5, 2014 11:01:03 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Apr 8, 2014 17:40:31 GMT
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Post by iainbhx on Apr 9, 2014 7:22:07 GMT
The Czechs have the jolly old 5%-Hürde - or things would be more interesting.
ANO 2011 6 (+6), ČSSD 5 (-2), KSČM 5 (+1), TOP 09 2 (+2), ODS 1 (-8), KDU-ČSL 1 (-1), LEV 21 1 (+1)
That's quite a good result for LEV 21, who had been floundering recently after being wiped out of the national assembly. Mind you, it takes some bottle to describe yourselves as National Socialists (Národní socialisté), people might get the wrong idea (LEV 21 are emphatically not Nazis).
Now what happened to the party for the restoration of the Bohemian crown :-)
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Post by Devonian on Apr 10, 2014 17:24:40 GMT
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 17, 2014 14:21:06 GMT
2009 Results, Slovakia. Slovakia lost a seat to 13 and remains on 13 this year. | SMER (Direction - Social Democracy) | 32.0% | +15.1% | 5 seats | +2 | PES | | SDKU-DS (Democratic and Christian Union) | 17.0% | -0.1% | 2 seats | -1 | EPP | | SMK (Party of Hungarian Coalition) | 11.3% | -1.9% | 2 seats | nc | EPP | | KDH (Christian Democratic Movement) | 10.9% | -5.3% | 2 seats | -1 | EPP | | LS-HZDS (People's Party - Movement for a Democratic Slovakia) | 9.0% | -8.1% | 1 seats | -2 | ALDE | | SNS (National Party) | 5.6% | +3.5% | 1 seat | +1 | EFD | | SaS (Freedom and Solidarity) | 4.7% | +4.7% | 0 seats | nc | ALDE |
SMER and KDH look like keeping their 5 and 2 seats respectively with a further 8 parties competing for the remaining 6 seats, of which the safest looks like being the ECR linked OLaNO (ordinary people and independant personalities), followed by SDKU. Possible other newcomers include SaS and the EPP aligned Most-Hid (a breakawy from SMK. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 17, 2014 14:27:02 GMT
A quick note - the L'SNS in the polls is not to be confused with the LS-HZDS who look to be vanishing and will lose their MEP. The L'SNS is the People's Party - Our Slovakia, which used to be known by the wonderful name of Party of Friends of Wine, but is linked to the far right Slovak Brotherhood.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on May 2, 2014 14:10:54 GMT
2009 Results Lithuania. Lithuania lost a seat to 12 in 2009. They suffer a further 1 seat reduction this year. | TS-LKD (Homeland Union - Lithuania Christian Democrats | 26.9% | +11.6% | 4 seats | +2 | EPP | | LSDP (Lithuanian Social Democrats) | 18.6% | +4.2% | 3 seats | +1 | S&D | | TT (Order & Justice) | 12.2% | +5.4% | 2 seats | +1 | EFD | | DP (Labour Party) | 8.8% | -21.4% | 1 seat | -4 | ALDE | | LLRA (Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania) | 8.4% | +2.7% | 1 seat | +1 | ECR | | LRLS (Liberal Movement of the Republic of LIthuania) | 7.4% | +7.4% | 1 seat | +1 | ALDE | | LiCS (Liberal and Centre Union) | 3.5% | -7.7% | 0 seats | -2 | ALDE |
The other seat was lost by VNDS (Peasants Popular Union) who dropped to just 1.8%. A pretty disastrous election for the Labour party. This year the Social Democrats look like they'll be comfortably top and pick up a couple of seats, TT will gain votes but maybe no extra seats. TS-LKD could see their representation and vote halved. The Labour Party and LRLS will hold on and the Poles will miss out. |
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