Local Council By-elections During 2014

[middleenglander]

There were 9 by-elections during January 2014 with 4 (44%) changes hands, all previous held by the Conservatives. The results can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	Retention Rate
Conservative	9	5	1		4	1	20%
Labour	8	3	3	1		4	100%
Liberal Democrats	5			1		1
SNP	2
UKIP	7			1		1
Green	3
Independent *	3	1	1	1		2	100%
English Democrats	1
TUSAC	1
Total	39	9	5	4	4	9	56%

* 3 Independent candidates contested 2 seats

Conservatives lost one seat to each of Labour, Lib Dems, UKIP and an Independent

*  Trafford MB, Broadheath - Labour gain from Conservatives following death of previous councillor
    Conservative seat each year from 2004 to 2011 with Labour gaining a seat in 2012, although previously won a ward of same name in 2002
    Swing Labour to Conservative of 1¾% since 2012 but Conservative to Labour 3¼% since 2011 and 8¼% since 2010

*  Lichfield DC, Chadsmead - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservatives following disqualification for non-attendance of previous councillor
    1 Conservative & 1 Labour elected in 2003, 1 Conservative & 1 Lib Dem elected in 2007, 2 Conservatives elected in 2011
     - former Councillor had served since at least 2003 whilst successful candidate had previously been elected for one term in 2007
     Swing Conservative to Lib Dem of 13½% (top candidate) / 16% (average) since 2011 and 7% / 8% since 2007

*  St Edmunsbury DC, Haverhill East - UKIP gain from Conservative following death of previous councillor
    3 Labour seats narrowly in 2003, 3 Conservative in 2007 and 2011 with late councillor polling well ahead of colleagues who narrowly held their seats over Labour
    UKIP contesting ward for first time poll 54% share, a 30% majority over Labour and 38% over Conservatives; winning candidate won County Division in May 2013

*  Tonbridge & Malling DC, Borough Green & Long Mill - Independent gain from Conservative following resignation of previous councillor
    3 Conservative seats in 2003, 2007 and 2011 although two Independents polled 34% and 29% in 2011 compared to lowest Conservative 47%
    Independent who polled 29% in 2011 gets 39% share in by-election to win with swing from Conservative of 14% / 17% since 2011

There were 3 further by-elections in England (the other 2 were in Scotland).  
*  Conservatives held Southend UA, West Leigh somewhat narrowly with a swing to the Lib Dems of around 7% since the last 3 annual elections
*  Labour held Salford MB, Swinton South with a 2.4% swing to Conservatives since 2012, 1.6% since 2011 but 6.1% to Labour since 2010
*  Labour held Amber Valley BC, Heanor East with a 1.3% swing to Conservatives since 2012 but 9.2% to Labour since 2010. 

[middleenglander]

There were 9 by-elections during February with 4 seats (44%) changing hands although this number includes an Independent gaining a seat from No Description along with an Independent losing a seat to No Description.  The results can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	9	4	3	1	1	4	75%
Labour	6	3	2		1	2	67%
Lib Dems	6			1		1
UKIP	4
Plaid Cymru	2
Green	2
Independent *	2	1		1	1	1	0%
No Description	2	1		1	1	1	0%
English Democrat	1
National Front	1
TUSAC	2
Total	37	9	5	4	4	9	56%

* 2 Independent candidates contested 1 seat

The Conservatives gained one seat from Labour but lost one to the Lib Dems

* Birmingham, Kingstanding - Conservative gain from Labour following resignation of Labour councillor elected in 2012
   Labour had held this ward for many years although the Conservative came within 2.2% in 2008 and swings were on low side in recent years
   New councillor had fought ward in last 4 elections gaining swings of between 3% (since 2008) and 7% (since 2012)

* Charnwood, Birstall Wanlip - Conservative lost to Lib Dem following the death of councillor first elected in 2007 who polled well ahead of his running mate in 2011
   Split representation in both 2003 and 2007 - 1 Conservative and 1 Lib Dem - with Conservatives taking both seats in 2011
   New councillor had failed in 2013 to retain the wider County seat gained by Conservatives.  Swing Conservative to Lib Dem  ~14% since 2011 and ~3% since 2007  

An Independent gained Conwy, Bewts yn Rhos from No Description in a 4 cornered contest following the resignation of the Councillor
No Description gained Richmondshire, Reeth & Arkengarthdale from an Independent in a straight fight with a Conservative following the death of the Councillor

There were 4 further by-elections in England during February and another in Wales:
* Conservatives held two seats in Tendring, Peter Bruff and St Johns, the former on a swing ~2½% to Labour since 2011 whilst the latter on a similar swing from Labour
* Conservatives held West Lindsey, Scotter with a 31% majority in a straight fight with Lib Dems having lost the other seat to No Description in December 2013
* Labour retained Sheffield, Arbourthorne with a 34% majority although on a 6.7% swing to UKIP since 2012
* Labour also retained Cardiff, Canton with a 8% majority but on a ~10% swing to Plaid Cymru since 2012

[Pete Whitehead]

Feb 28, 2014 0:49:32 GMT middleenglander said:

* Charnwood, Birstall Wanlip - Conservative lost to Lib Dem following the death of councillor first elected in 2007 who polled well ahead of his running mate in 2011
   Split representation in both 2003 and 2007 - 1 Conservative and 1 Lib Dem - with Conservatives taking both seats in 2011
   New councillor had been County Council for the area before losing in 2013.  Swing Conservative to Lib Dem  ~14% since 2011 and ~3% since 2007  

He unsuccesfully defended the seat in 2013 but was not the incumbent AFAICT. A different LD candidate was elected in 2009 and I can't find any record of a subsequent by-election

[middleenglander]

There have been 18 by-elections during January and February 2014 with 8 (44%) changing hands or 6 (33%) were the Independent to No Description and vice versa to be ignored. They can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	Retention Rate
Conservative	18	9	4	1	5	5	44%
Labour	14	6	5	1	1	6	83%
Lib Dems	11			2		2
UKIP	11			1		1
SNP	2
Plaid Cymru	2
Green	5
Independent	5	2	1	2	1	3	50%
No Description	2	1		1	1	1	0%
English Democrats	2
National Front	1
TUSAC	3
Total	76	18	10	8	8	18	56%

* 5 Independent Candidates contested 3 seats

Conservatives gained a seat in Birmingham from Labour
- whilst losing two the Lib Dems in Charnwood and Lichfield, one in Trafford to Labour, one in St Edmundsbury to UKIP and one in Tonbridge & Malling to Independent

An Independent gained a seat from No Description in Conwy but lost another to No Description in Richmondshire

[middleenglander]

There were 25 by-elections during March with 6 (24%) changing hands.
This assumes no change in Fylde, St John's where the former Councillor had been elected as Ratepayers' Association in 2007, as Independent sponsored by Ratepayers' Association in 2011 whilst the new Councillor won as Ratepayers' Association.

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	Retention Rate
Conservative	25	11	8	2	3	10	73%
Labour	23	8	7	1	1	8	88%
Lib Dem	18	2	1	2	1	3	50%
UKIP	20
SNP	1	1	1			1	100%
Green	9
Independent *	7	1	1			1	100%
Resident Groups	3	2	1	1	1	2	50%
OMRLP	1
Elvis	1
Total	108	25	19	6	6	25	76%

* 7 candidates contesting 5 seats

Conservatives gained 1 seat from both Labour and Staffordshire Independent Group whilst losing 2 seats to the Lib Dems and 1 to Ashford Independents
- Labour gained 1 seat from Liberal Democrats 

*  Bury MB, Ramsbottom - Conservative gain from Labour following resignation of previous councillor elected by lot in 2011
    Conservative seat each year from 2004 to 2010 with Labour winning in 2011 and 2012
    Swing Labour to Conservative 12% since 2012, 6% since 2011 and 1% since 2010

*  Staffordshire Moorlands DC, Cellarhead - Conservative gain from Staffordshire Independent Group following death of previous councillor
    Two seat ward where the Conservative won both in 2007 and  topped the poll in 2011 with the late councillor winning the second
    Labour was runner-up, not having contested the seat in 2011, whilst there was 1% swing Conservative to Labour since 2007

*   Ashford BC, Wye - Ashford Independent gain seat from Conservative following resignation of previous councillor
     Single member ward won by Conservatives in 2003 and 2011 but by an Ashford Independent in 2007
     Swing 9% Conservative to Ashford Independent since 2011 but almost 12% to Conservatives since 2007

*   Canterbury BC, Barham Downs - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative following death of former councillor
     Single member ward won by Liberal Democrats in 2003 and 2007 but Conservative in 2011 with a 2% majority
     Swing 4% Conservative to Lib Dem since 2011 but 8% to Conservatives since 2007 and 17% since 2003

*   Shropshire UA, Ludlow North - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative following resignation of previous councillor
     Conservatives had won the seat with a majority over Liberal Democrat of 12% in 2009 and 7% in 2013
     Swing Conservative to Lib Dem 11% since 2013 and 13% since 2007,
     - possibly exacerbated by known Conservative standing as an Independent polling 17%

*   Gedling BC, Gedling - Labour gained from Liberal Democrat following resignation of previous councillor
     Three member seat where the Liberal Democrats won all in 2003 and 2007 but split ward in 2011 with 2 Labour and 1 Liberal Democrat
     Very small swing from Liberal Democrat to Labour since 2011 but 16% since 2007 

[middleenglander]

There have been 43 by-elections during January to March 2014 with 14 (33%) changing hands or 12 (28%) were the Independent to No Description and vice versa to be ignored. They can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	Retention Rate
Conservative	43	20	12	3	8	15	60%
Labour	37	14	12	2	2	14	86%
Liberal Democrats	29	2	1	4	1	5	50%
UKIP	31			1		1
SNP	3	1	1			1	100%
Plaid Cymru	2
Green	14
Resident Groups	3	2	1	1	1	2	50%
Independents *	12	3	2	2	1	4	67%
No Description	2	1		1	1	1	0%
English Democrats	2
National Front	1
TUSAC	3
Elvis	1
OMRLP	1
Total	184	43	29	14	14	43	67%

* 12 Independent Candidates contested 8 seats

Conservatives contested all 43 by-elections, Labour 86%, Liberal Democrats 67% whereas UKIP contested 72% and Greens 33%

Conservatives gained Birmingham: Kingstanding and Bury: Ramsbottom both from Labour
- along with Staffordshire Moorlands: Cellarhead from Staffordshire Independent Group 
- but lost Canterbury: Barham Downs, Charnwood: Birstall Wanlip, Lichfield: Chadsmead and Shropshire: Ludlow North all to Liberal Democrats
- together with Trafford: Broadheath to Labour and St Edmundsbury: Haverhill East to UKIP,
- also Ashford; Wye to Ashford Independents and Tonbridge & Malling: Brough Green & Long Mill to an Independent

Labour also gained Gedling: Gedling from Liberal Democrats

An Independent gained a seat from No Description in Conwy: Bewts yn Rhos
- but lost another to No Description in Richmondshire: Reeth & Arkengarthdale

[middleenglander]

There were 11 by-elections in April and the first two weeks of May 2 (18%) with changing hands. The results can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	10	6	5	1	1	6	83%
Labour	9	3	3			3	100%
Lib Dems	5			1		1
UKIP	8
Plaid Cymru	1
SNP	1
Green	1
Independent	5	2	1		1	1	50%
Lincs Independent	1
Christian	1
No Description	1
Total	43	11	9	2	2	11	82%

The Conservatives gained one seat from an Independent whilst losing one to a Liberal Democrat.

* North Kesteven DC, Osbournby - Conservative gain from Independent following death of previous Councillor
   Independent won very comfortably in 2011 and narrowly in 2007 although narrowly beaten by Conservative in 2003
   Conservative majority of 7% over Lincolnshire Independent with both Labour and Lib Dems polling just 7½% between them

* East Cambridgeshire DC, Sutton - Liberal Democrats gain from Conservative following resignation of previous councillor
   Two member ward returning 2 Conservatives in 2011 and 2007 but 1 Conservative and 1 Lib Dem in 2003 when only 1 Conservative candidate
   Second councillor resigned from Conservatives to sit as Independent following dispute about by-election candidate
   Swing Conservative to Lib Dem 20%+ since both 2011 and 2007

[middleenglander]

There have been 54 by-elections during January to May 8th 2014 with 16 (30%) changing hands or 14 (26%) were the Independent to No Description and vice versa to be ignored. They can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	Retention Rate
Conservative	53	26	17	4	9	21	65%
Labour	46	17	15	2	2	17	88%
Liberal Democrats	34	2	1	5	1	6	50%
UKIP	39			1		1
SNP	4	1	1			1	100%
Plaid Cymru	3
Green	15
Resident Groups	4	2	1	1	1	2	50%
Independents *	17	5	3	2	2	5	67%
No Description	3	1		1	1	1	0%
English Democrats	2
National Front	1
TUSAC	3
Elvis	1
Others	2
Total	227	54	38	16	16	54	70%

* 17 Independent Candidates contested 13 seats

Conservatives contested all but one of the 54 by-elections, Labour 85%, Liberal Democrats 63% whereas UKIP contested 72% and Greens 28%

Conservatives gained Birmingham: Kingstanding and Bury: Ramsbottom both from Labour
- along with Staffordshire Moorlands: Cellarhead from Staffordshire Independent Group and North Kesteven: Osbournby from an Independent
- but lost Canterbury: Barham Downs, Charnwood: Birstall Wanlip, Lichfield: Chadsmead, East Cambridgeshire: Sutton and Shropshire: Ludlow North all to Liberal Democrats
- together with Trafford: Broadheath to Labour and St Edmundsbury: Haverhill East to UKIP,
- also Ashford; Wye to Ashford Independents and Tonbridge & Malling: Brough Green & Long Mill to an Independent

Labour also gained Gedling: Gedling from Liberal Democrats

An Independent gained a seat from No Description in Conwy: Bewts yn Rhos
- but lost another to No Description in Richmondshire: Reeth & Arkengarthdale

[middleenglander]

There were 75 local council by-elections on 22nd May with 19 (25%) changing hands.  There were 35 contests for a single seat but 40 were "double" elections where the by-election was combined with the annual election. This has had two impacts on the analysis:
i. the convention used in the "double" elections was the leading candidate won the annual election whilst the runner-up won the by-election
- this can have the effect of exaggerating somewhat the number of seats changing hands
ii. it is not possible in "double" election seats to determine the number of candidates in the by-election if a party puts up only one candidate.

The results can be summarised by:

Party	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won	retention rate
Conservative	31	26	3	5	29	84%
Labour	29	23	5	6	28	79%
Liberal Democrats	6	5		1	5	83%
UKIP	1	1	5		6	100%
SNP	1			1		0%
Green	2	1	4	1	5	50%
Independent Socialist	1			1		0%
Independent	4		2	4	2	0%
Total	75	56	19	19	75	100%

Conservative gained a seat each from Labour, Lib Dem and Independent whilst losing a seat to each Labour, UKIP and Green together with 2 to Independents
* gained Southampton, Millbrook from Labour, a Labour seat in 2010 (1.8% majority), 2011 (3.6%) and 2012 (4.6%), narrowly second in "double" election
* gained Tewkesbury, Brockworth from Lib Dem on a ~19% swing since 2011
* gained Scarborough, Derwent Valley from Independent sitting as UKIP with a 42% share; Conservative topped poll in 2011 in "split" 2 member ward with 46% share
* lost Coventry, Chelysmore to Labour whilst gaining the annual seat from Labour as Conservative topped the poll; Labour won 2010, Conservative 2011 & 2012
* lost Adur Mash Barn to UKIP in "double" election where UKIP gained the annual seat from a Liberal Democrat, UKIP polled 24% in 2012 rising to 45% in 2014
* lost Babergh, South Cosford to first recent time Green by 16 votes (1.7%); Lib Dem single member ward in 2003 and 2007 but no by-election candidate
* lost Bradford, Craven to Independent in "double" election where Conservative topped poll; Conservative in 2011 but former Conservative as Independent in 2012
* lost Scottish Borders, Hawick & Denholm to Independent; Conservative 1st Preference share in 2014 21.6% compared to 14.0% in 2012 and 26.0% in 2007

Labour gained 1 seat each from Conservative, SNP, Green, Independent Socialist and Independent whilst losing a seat to Conservative, 3 to UKIP and 2 to Green
* gained Coventry, Chelysmore from Conservative - see above
* gained Argyll & Bute, Oban South & the Isles from SNP sitting as Independent;  SNP led on 1st Preference votes, winner was an Independent in 2012 polling 7.6% 
* gained Watford, Callowland from Green in "double" election on a 18% swing since 2012 and 6% since 2010
* gained Preston, Town Centre from Independent Socialist in a "double" election with 2 Labour and 1 Conservative candidates
* gained Southend, Westborough from Independent in "double" election where Labour gained the annual election seat from Lib Dem and now hold all 3 seats
* lost Southampton, Millbrook to Conservatives - see above
* lost Basildon, Lee Chapel North to UKIP along with the annual seat on a swing of ~18% since 2012
* lost Basingstoke & Deane, Brighton Hill South to UKIP whilst gaining the annual seat from Lib Dems in 2 member ward; UKIP doubled share since 2012
* lost Harlow, Mark Hall to UKIP along with the annual seat who had not contested the seat before
* lost Lancaster, Scotforth to Green on a swing of around 5% since 2011
* lost Lancaster, University to Green on a swing of around 16% since 2011
 
Other seats to change hands were:
* Green gained Stroud, Central from Independent who won single member seat in 2011, previously held by Conservative in 2003 & 2007 when Green was runner-up
* UKIP gained Maidstone, Harrietsham & Lenham from Independent at first attempt in "double" election where Independent gained annual seat from Conservative

[middleenglander]

It had been my intention to run this thread through to the end of 2014. However, I now think it better to start a new thread from the beginning of June through to the General Election, presumably 7th May 2015. When the "six month" rule comes into force at the beginning of November there could be a reduction in the number of by-elections as around 43% of all seats are up for election next year compared to less than 21% this year.