Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2014 16:26:13 GMT
To me the key finding of the poll is that 34% of people who voted Tory in 2010 are going to vote for someone else come 2015. Everything else is minutiae really. There is an honest acceptance early on in the report that Europe is simply not an issue in many parts of the country and that cost of living is uppermost in many peoples minds. I like the detailed layout of the data tables which makes for easy comparison with the Yougov daily tracker. Why aren't we pollling in the mid 20s then? It is a good question on all the breakdowns it is noticeable Labour hold large leads in all but the over 65 category. For example Labour leads in Public and private workers and amongst all categories apart from over 65. Now we see the issue the Tories have, they retain a lot of support in the over 65 bracket but they are not simply appealing to the younger brackets who will become the next over 65's. Now some say ahas you get older you get more right wing but the current over 65's are the true Thatcher children who got the most from her sell off's. Once these start to die off, what is left for them ? The only reason the Tories are not in the mid 25's to high 20's is this one demographic and even there UKIP are rating higher. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2014 16:48:45 GMT
Why aren't we pollling in the mid 20s then? It is a good question on all the breakdowns it is noticeable Labour hold large leads in all but the over 65 category. For example Labour leads in Public and private workers and amongst all categories apart from over 65. Now we see the issue the Tories have, they retain a lot of support in the over 65 bracket but they are not simply appealing to the younger brackets who will become the next over 65's. Now some say ahas you get older you get more right wing but the current over 65's are the true Thatcher children who got the most from her sell off's. Once these start to die off, what is left for them ? The only reason the Tories are not in the mid 25's to high 20's is this one demographic and even there UKIP are rating higher. The conservative party has always done best with the 65+ voters. A mixture of people realizing how inanely ridiculous socialism is as they experience it and the tories working hard to protect the interests of the 65+ voters. Granted we are probably a bit weaker with middle aged voters than we should be - this is probably because they have not seen a left-wing government yet - only Thatcher, Major, the Blairities then the current coalition. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 5, 2014 17:00:10 GMT
Don't over-read poll internals.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 5, 2014 17:01:24 GMT
Most old people vote as they always did. Its just that Labour voters are statistically likely to die at an earlier age.
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Post by thirdchill on Jan 5, 2014 17:49:14 GMT
To me the key finding of the poll is that 34% of people who voted Tory in 2010 are going to vote for someone else come 2015. Everything else is minutiae really. There is an honest acceptance early on in the report that Europe is simply not an issue in many parts of the country and that cost of living is uppermost in many peoples minds. I like the detailed layout of the data tables which makes for easy comparison with the Yougov daily tracker. Why aren't we pollling in the mid 20s then? This from UKpollingreport should answer your question. "I should make a comment about some of the media reporting of the finding that the Conservatives have lost 37% of their voters since the last election. This is accurate, but far less exciting than it sounds. A lot of it is just down to people saying don’t know, it happens in all polls, other bits are just the natural churn you get in all directions between parties. To put it in context, Labour have lost 22% of their vote since the last election, which would make a nice headline of “Labour lost one in five of their voters!” if one wanted to spin a poll badly for Labour. The more salient facts are that the Tories have gone from 37% at the last election to 30% in this poll, Labour have gone from 30% to 39%. The underlying churn and back and forth between parties is good for understanding what has driven this but is bad for creating non-misleading headlines! There is churn in all elections, even a party on a roll will lose some of its previous supporters, the key is gaining more than you lose." Because 'Don't knows' are not included in polling percentages, the drop by a third in people saying they support the party does not mean the polls drop by a third. The example about labour makes this more clearly. A drop by 22% and yet they have risen in the opinion polls. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 5, 2014 17:52:16 GMT
There's also the issue that - and I know this may seem amazing but it's very true - a lot of people forget how they last voted.
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tim13
Non-Aligned
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Post by tim13 on Jan 5, 2014 18:03:56 GMT
Erlend - Compared to the old BBC, it seems very compliant with neo-liberalism, as now preached by most of the mainstream print media. The full conversion of the BBC to that stance in the last 20 or so years has immensely strengthened neoliberalism's hold on the population's attitudes, IMO. The capture of the Lib Dem leadership by neoliberalism has only followed nuLabour down that particular road.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2014 18:05:34 GMT
At its lowest point in 2008, labour must have been at something like 40% of their 2005 voters.
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myth11
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too busy at work!
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Post by myth11 on Jan 5, 2014 18:36:19 GMT
bad numbers on my part error removed
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baloo
Conservative
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Post by baloo on Jan 5, 2014 18:54:20 GMT
No they aren't as important or powerful as they once were (one of the reasons why Tory hopes for a repeat of 1992 are likely misplaced) But they still have influence - undoubtedly part of the "public perception" of Miliband cited above is media-led. (and "media" doesn't just mean the papers, of course - the BBC in particular has toed the pro-coalition line very obediently since 2010, with only a few exceptions) The public perception of Milliband is Milliband led. The idea that the BBC is pro coalition is plainly laughable and I don't se you bleating about the pro Labour bias at the Mirror, Guardian and the "Independent". |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2014 18:57:37 GMT
No they aren't as important or powerful as they once were (one of the reasons why Tory hopes for a repeat of 1992 are likely misplaced) But they still have influence - undoubtedly part of the "public perception" of Miliband cited above is media-led. (and "media" doesn't just mean the papers, of course - the BBC in particular has toed the pro-coalition line very obediently since 2010, with only a few exceptions) The public perception of Milliband is Milliband led. The idea that the BBC is pro coalition is plainly laughable and I don't se you bleating about the pro Labour bias at the Mirror, Guardian and the "Independent". I do rather disagree on this. The public perception of Miliband is pretty awful. About the least negative word on those silly face things that was in large font was "Wallace". His ratings are demonstrably poor. Ultimately, if you are on the right, you should defend the right of media such as those papers (ignoring the name of the independant) to be biased. |
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baloo
Conservative
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Post by baloo on Jan 5, 2014 19:05:02 GMT
The public perception of Milliband is Milliband led. The idea that the BBC is pro coalition is plainly laughable and I don't se you bleating about the pro Labour bias at the Mirror, Guardian and the "Independent". I do rather disagree on this. The public perception of Miliband is pretty awful. About the least negative word on those silly face things that was in large font was "Wallace". His ratings are demonstrably poor. Ultimately, if you are on the right, you should defend the right of media such as those papers (ignoring the name of the independant) to be biased. Firstly I don't let my opinions be influenced by a desire to maintain a particular position on an imaginary spectrum. My position on the said spectrum is determined by my opinions. Secondly I didn't say that the media shouldn't be allowed to be biased. The claim was made that the only reason we do so well in the polls is because the media persuade people to support us, I merely pointed out that there is a vigorous pro Labour media too. Thirdly it is silly that people say that Ed Milliband is like Wallace. It's also silly that they say that Dvid Cameron is arrogant etc, he's actually quite a nice bloke. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 5, 2014 19:06:52 GMT
At least acknowledge that you're a hack, hack. I do...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2014 19:11:53 GMT
And yet on all the key issues he has led on
Murdoch, Cost of living, Energy companies etc the public in all the polls have backed the position. You know what it could be strange but maybe the next election is decided by policies and not personalities ?
I would rather like that ...
A key stat in this poll is that more people believe they will be better off under Labour than the Tories but the Tories are better for the Economy as an whole.
People vote selfishly.
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Post by timokane on Jan 5, 2014 19:18:25 GMT
To me the key finding of the poll is that 34% of people who voted Tory in 2010 are going to vote for someone else come 2015. Everything else is minutiae really. There is an honest acceptance early on in the report that Europe is simply not an issue in many parts of the country and that cost of living is uppermost in many peoples minds. I like the detailed layout of the data tables which makes for easy comparison with the Yougov daily tracker. Why aren't we pollling in the mid 20s then? Direct quote from the report preamble More than a third (37 per cent) of those who voted Conservative in 2010 say they would not do so again in an election tomorrow. About one third of these Defectors say they do not know how they would vote, or would not vote at all. For most of them, the biggest uniting factor is that they give only low to middling scores to David Cameron. Most of those who give him higher ratings do not think the Tories stand for fairness. this part of the polling is restricted to the intentions of identified Tory voters from 2010 so will not show up in the national statistics. To give Ashcroft his due, he is trying to drag the Tories out of the comfort zone nonsense of private polls in Tory marginals showing they are doing ok. Cameron first has to reverse this defection rate before he can even think about building the six percent lead he needs to win outright and it just ain't happening. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2014 19:18:30 GMT
A key stat in this poll is that more people believe they will be better off under Labour than the Tories but the Tories are better for the Economy as an whole. People vote selfishly.
Which is why the result of the GE is a long way from being decided as yet, & is likely to be very close .....
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Post by lbarnes on Jan 5, 2014 19:24:33 GMT
Most old people vote as they always did. Its just that Labour voters are statistically likely to die at an earlier age. That's correct, Conservative voters live longer. I'm not suggesting that's cause and effect. |
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baloo
Conservative
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Post by baloo on Jan 5, 2014 19:31:23 GMT
At least acknowledge that you're a hack, hack. I do... I fear that I must decline your kind invitation, I merely disagreed with the idea that there is a great media conspiracy against the Labour Party. Rather than hack I prefer the word rational. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,044
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 5, 2014 23:59:52 GMT
Hacks generally do, hack.
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 6, 2014 1:06:11 GMT
The conservative party has always done best with the 65+ voters. A mixture of people realizing how inanely ridiculous socialism is as they experience it and the tories working hard to protect the interests of the 65+ voters. Granted we are probably a bit weaker with middle aged voters than we should be - this is probably because they have not seen a left-wing government yet - only Thatcher, Major, the Blairities then the current coalition. Joe: that is partially because so many working class Labour voters simply never made it to the post-65 age at all - this is still apparent in terms of the gap between richest and poorest and life expectancy. So it wasn't so much about people switching their votes but that older voters who lived loinger were more likely to be Conservative Changing demographics might see this alter. |
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