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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 10:44:14 GMT
A note on the Ashcroft poll - 1000 respondents originally, but only about 480 included in the final published VI result. That is a notably low figure (even MORI, with its "100% certain to vote" filter, usually has a few more than that) And in the Labour favouring groups of 18-24 only 30 respondents yet over 120 for the over 65s Pay for your poll get the result you want I guess. Off to ask some Turkeys their opinions on Thanks giving. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 13, 2014 11:14:05 GMT
BTW since these Ashcroft surveys are now going to be a regular event, shouldn't they have their own thread  (and what polling company does them, BTW?) |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 13, 2014 12:00:54 GMT
A note on the Ashcroft poll - 1000 respondents originally, but only about 480 included in the final published VI result. That is a notably low figure (even MORI, with its "100% certain to vote" filter, usually has a few more than that) And in the Labour favouring groups of 18-24 only 30 respondents yet over 120 for the over 65s To be fair, that's not an entirely unreasonable proportion. The over 65s outnumber 18-24 year olds by somewhere in the region of 2:1 and are probably about twice as likely to vote. |
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 12:52:59 GMT
And in the Labour favouring groups of 18-24 only 30 respondents yet over 120 for the over 65s Pay for your poll get the result you want I guess.Off to ask some Turkeys their opinions on Thanks giving. You are joking? My information is that Ashcroft hates Cameron. Which is not the same thing as either liking Miliband or disliking the Tories. |
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 14:41:33 GMT
A note on the Ashcroft poll - 1000 respondents originally, but only about 480 included in the final published VI result. That is a notably low figure (even MORI, with its "100% certain to vote" filter, usually has a few more than that) And in the Labour favouring groups of 18-24 only 30 respondents yet over 120 for the over 65s Pay for your poll get the result you want I guess. Off to ask some Turkeys their opinions on Thanks giving. Nonsense on two fronts. 1) Ashcroft publishes lots of polls where we do pretty damm badly. His integrity should be trusted. 2) How many over 65s vote compared to 18-24s. Check that before you criticize those numbers! |
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 16:03:31 GMT
What I am more interested in, is that if we get these figures replicated in a GE when will the FPTP Luddites finally admit their beloved system is totally bust and flawed.
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 16:28:54 GMT
They won't. If this result is accurate, the dinosaurs who killed real reform for a generation or more will blame anything but the voting system. And they will win.
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 16:38:54 GMT
They won't. If this result is accurate, the dinosaurs who killed real reform for a generation or more will blame anything but the voting system. And they will win. Killed real reform??? Who did that? |
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 16:50:14 GMT
They won't. If this result is accurate, the dinosaurs who killed real reform for a generation or more will blame anything but the voting system. And they will win. Killed real reform??? Who did that? I was no fan of AV but it was a stepping stone to real reform. If you helped kill off AV, you've set the constitution in concrete for a tidy while.... |
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 16:58:03 GMT
They won't. If this result is accurate, the dinosaurs who killed real reform for a generation or more will blame anything but the voting system. And they will win. Killed real reform??? Who did that? Describing the electorate as dinosaurs is not going to get many votes. |
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 17:11:31 GMT
Killed real reform??? Who did that? I was no fan of AV but it was a stepping stone to real reform. If you helped kill off AV, you've set the constitution in concrete for a tidy while.... Have to disagree there dok. AV can produce even more disproportionate results than FPTP. It was the public who were asked if they wanted AV, and they said very clearly "No thank you very much." FWIW, I would sooner have proportional representation than AV any day. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 13, 2014 21:39:17 GMT
No. Putting in place a written constitution would be the way of setting the constitution in concrete.
The voting system isn't a particularly big issue in the constitution. The big issue is the distribution of powers and relationship of the institutions of the state. It's important that the electoral system be capable of modification to cope with changing circumstances. (I remind you I voted Yes, because I support AV, and not because I supported some other system which might have been proposed at some point after)
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 13, 2014 21:50:05 GMT
No. Putting in place a written constitution would be the way of setting the constitution in concrete. The voting system isn't a particularly big issue in the constitution. The big issue is the distribution of powers and relationship of the institutions of the state. It's important that the electoral system be capable of modification to cope with changing circumstances. (I remind you I voted Yes, because I support AV, and not because I supported some other system which might have been proposed at some point after) Indeed, it was only in 1948 that we finally got universal over-21 sufferage, and only in 1968 that it became universal adult (over 18) sufferage. Before 1948 only ratepayers had the local vote, and certain university graduates had two parliamentary votes. |
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 21:51:26 GMT
BTW since these Ashcroft surveys are now going to be a regular event, shouldn't they have their own thread (and what polling company does them, BTW?)I don't know for sure but I have a feeling that it is YouGov. There are some friendships that I am aware of which make me think that. It's a phone poll though - have YG ever done those? |
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 13, 2014 21:55:00 GMT
rereading this thread I thught this comment was interesting Liverpool probably felt that way about Palace last week |
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Post by manchesterman on May 13, 2014 22:37:15 GMT
I agree with Joe here that there will be some movement back to the governing party(ies) between now and 2015. I also agree with the Bishop that this will be of smaller magnitude than it used to be for the reasons so given.
My opinion FWIW is that the 2 "big" parties will be very close and may even tie on % points (around 35-36% each), the LibDems will recover from currently poll ratings but not back up to 2010 levels (maybe 15%?), UKIP will get about 7-8% and the others whatever remains..
I put my stats in the projection doodah on the electoralcalculus website and got a result in seats of something like Lab295, Con 290, LD 40. This would of course make Clegg the Kingmaker again!
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Post by manchesterman on May 13, 2014 22:39:52 GMT
rereading this thread I thught this comment was interesting Liverpool probably felt that way about Palace last week LOL |
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2014 13:41:35 GMT
No. Putting in place a written constitution would be the way of setting the constitution in concrete. The voting system isn't a particularly big issue in the constitution. The big issue is the distribution of powers and relationship of the institutions of the state. It's important that the electoral system be capable of modification to cope with changing circumstances. (I remind you I voted Yes, because I support AV, and not because I supported some other system which might have been proposed at some point after) Indeed, it was only in 1948 that we finally got universal over-21 sufferage, and only in 1968 that it became universal adult (over 18) sufferage. Before 1948 only ratepayers had the local vote, and certain university graduates had two parliamentary votes. Do we really believe that voters actually care ? I do ask because do we need a vote to decide the way we are voting ? If the party or parties in power decide to change the system then dont they have the mandate if it is in their manifesto ? I do think in 2015 you will get the situation where UKIP get more votes than the LD's but get no MP's like at the time of the sDP and alliance it will make a mockery of the system especially as this time no chance the Tories or Labour will get over 40% to justify some kind of legitimacy. |
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2014 14:01:33 GMT
Indeed, it was only in 1948 that we finally got universal over-21 sufferage, and only in 1968 that it became universal adult (over 18) sufferage. Before 1948 only ratepayers had the local vote, and certain university graduates had two parliamentary votes. Do we really believe that voters actually care ? I do ask because do we need a vote to decide the way we are voting ? If the party or parties in power decide to change the system then dont they have the mandate if it is in their manifesto ?
I do think in 2015 you will get the situation where UKIP get more votes than the LD's but get no MP's like at the time of the sDP and alliance it will make a mockery of the system especially as this time no chance the Tories or Labour will get over 40% to justify some kind of legitimacy. Thats pretty damm unlikely IMHO. |
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Post by Deleted on May 14, 2014 15:03:46 GMT
Do we really believe that voters actually care ? I do ask because do we need a vote to decide the way we are voting ? If the party or parties in power decide to change the system then dont they have the mandate if it is in their manifesto ?
I do think in 2015 you will get the situation where UKIP get more votes than the LD's but get no MP's like at the time of the sDP and alliance it will make a mockery of the system especially as this time no chance the Tories or Labour will get over 40% to justify some kind of legitimacy. Thats pretty damm unlikely IMHO. It depends, I think in 2015 UKIP unless they blow up (and that is something we can not rule out) will get 12-15%, would the LD's ? |
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