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Post by timokane on Jan 31, 2014 7:17:26 GMT
Attachment DeletedPaddy Power don't think the Tories will have a poll lead this side of the general election.
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Post by timokane on Jan 31, 2014 7:25:52 GMT
Mea culpa. They haven't quoted for Q1 in 2015 so my last post is not strictly true.but the fact they are offering 11/2 after the conference season would seem to suggest they don't think it will happen as a result of any bounce created by a good Tory conference.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 31, 2014 11:06:47 GMT
View AttachmentPaddy Power don't think the Tories will have a poll lead this side of the general election. That just refers to YouGov - and they had a poll (ie, just one) showing the Tories level with Labour last year. |
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2014 14:13:16 GMT
apparently today is the answer in a new set of polls from Ashcroft - weekly telephone polls
C 34 L 32
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Post by carlton43 on May 12, 2014 14:37:11 GMT
This is a surprise to me. I need to see a few more of these over a couple of weeks before conceding that i was in error in January.
A reasonably good budget, some encouraging economic figures and fewer outright attacks by Cameron on his own troops seem to have led to this? Just imagine where the Conservatives would be without Cameron and his modernist policies plus a more overt euroscepticism? Wow!
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2014 15:26:48 GMT
Noise. Labour still infront by about 3 to 3.5 points.
I am pretty confident that we will win the most votes and labour will win the most seats.
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2014 16:11:20 GMT
apparently today is the answer in a new set of polls from Ashcroft - weekly telephone polls C 34 L 32 A nice surprise from a Conservative point of view. I would expect we will have something of a setback in the opinion polls in the aftermath of 22nd May - it is almost inevitable when the public see headlines such as "Tories come third in Euro poll" and "Labour and UKIP gain X number of councils". The question remains as to when we will consistently be ahead as an average between all pollsters, as I mentioned in my opening post on this thread. But this poll is still encouraging in the long run. |
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2014 16:13:32 GMT
I think it would be better to run this kind of poll after the European elections (and possibly the Newark by-election too), as things may be a bit clearer by then. The UKIP position will settle down by the summer. I just not sure where that position will be. Of course, it is possible for the Tories to get most votes and less seats than Labour. A dead-heat in votes could leave the Tories lagging possibly by 10-15 seats, quite a difference in a close run result.
My hunch is that the Tories will need to raise their vote share to about 37-38% to be clearly in contention of forming the next government and higher still to get to 325 seats or thereabouts. On the other hand, Labour has an even higher hurdle to clamber over to get into contention from their previous 258 seat position with 29% of the vote.
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2014 16:40:59 GMT
apparently today is the answer in a new set of polls from Ashcroft - weekly telephone polls C 34 L 32 A nice surprise from a Conservative point of view. I would expect we will have something of a setback in the opinion polls in the aftermath of 22nd May - it is almost inevitable when the public see headlines such as "Tories come third in Euro poll" and "Labour and UKIP gain X number of councils". The question remains as to when we will consistently be ahead as an average between all pollsters, as I mentioned in my opening post on this thread. But this poll is still encouraging in the long run. I would have hoped on this site we would be a bit more rational about polls, especially one which has a lot of unanswered questions about and no track record. It would be the same as me going on about a 7% lead in the last YG all froth. I think it shows that the two main parties simply can not break out of their core votes at the moment and UKIP pick up the strays and I am not convinced that they will go back to either party. What this last 4 years may have shown is the era of FPTP is slowly coming to an end. |
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Post by woollyliberal on May 12, 2014 20:20:15 GMT
Two in one day is a fascinating coincidence. There have been a couple of 1 point leads lately. We'll have to see if it becomes a trend.
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2014 20:42:24 GMT
The lead is decreasing. It's no more than 3 now.
We are getting there, but let's not get in front of ourselves, we aren't in front.
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on May 12, 2014 21:13:28 GMT
The worry for Labour after their trio of duff polls today ought to be that it follows a higher than usual public presence for Milliband.
If people are genuinely put off Labour when watching him, then they are stuffed in a General Election...
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 12, 2014 23:25:21 GMT
I would have hoped on this site we would be a bit more rational about polls, especially one which has a lot of unanswered questions about and no track record. It would be the same as me going on about a 7% lead in the last YG all froth. I think it shows that the two main parties simply can not break out of their core votes at the moment and UKIP pick up the strays and I am not convinced that they will go back to either party. What this last 4 years may have shown is the era of FPTP is slowly coming to an end. So what do yopu make of the latest ICM for the Grauniad, Ian? Con 33 Lab 31 U 15 LD 13 That ICM has shown some of the lowest leads for Labour, that it's one poll from one pollster and that your analysis of polls owes less to statistics than your frantic desire to see Labour beaten? I wouldn't like to put words in Ian's mouth, but those all seem like fruitful avenues of response. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 13, 2014 0:12:04 GMT
I would suggest a count of comments upon tonight's polls by party affiliations versus total counts on the polling sub-forum. It might produce surprising results, were one lobotomised.
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 8:28:53 GMT
I would suggest a count of comments upon tonight's polls by party affiliations versus total counts on the polling sub-forum. It might produce surprising results, were one lobotomised. Two more polls on top of the two showing us a lead both give a 1 point lead (Yougov and Populus). Thats four polls showing a dead heat - exciting stuff for us, of course we are posting more about it! |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 13, 2014 8:35:22 GMT
Amusingly, I can fairly reliably tell whether the YouGov daily poll has seen an increase or a reduction in the Labour lead, based upon whether the last poster is shaded in red or grey.
(admittedly that's been less reliable in the last few months)
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Post by Deleted on May 13, 2014 9:05:26 GMT
So what do yopu make of the latest ICM for the Grauniad, Ian? Con 33 Lab 31 U 15 LD 13 That ICM has shown some of the lowest leads for Labour, that it's one poll from one pollster and that your analysis of polls owes less to statistics than your frantic desire to see Labour beaten? I wouldn't like to put words in Ian's mouth, but those all seem like fruitful avenues of response. What makes the ICM strange is the massive downswing in Labour votes, -6 in one month ? and ICM have done this before and reverted back. The polls are simple, tory level is stuck at the same, the only reason the lead is coming down is that Labour's ratings fell slightly since the new year and then these two now. Nothing for Tories to crow about at all because they are as far away from an overall majority as before. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 13, 2014 9:18:19 GMT
Amusingly, I can fairly reliably tell whether the YouGov daily poll has seen an increase or a reduction in the Labour lead, based upon whether the last poster is shaded in red or grey. (admittedly that's been less reliable in the last few months) Well, with the witless twat, wee Dougie Alexander, running the campaign, aided and abetted by an American who Labour have employed but who seems to have even less idea than him, I am sure that Linton is laughing his bollocks off. Dougie got battered with a blunt instrument, known as a Brillo, at the weekend and the little creep shrank in his seat the longer it went on. Its worth replaying just for the cringe factor of their pathetic class war agenda and mathematical incompetence: On Message but Running on Empty. Don't dignify him with the term Prick as he is too wan and limp : Nor Shit for that is both necessary and useful. |
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Post by carlton43 on May 13, 2014 9:24:22 GMT
On Message but Running on Empty. Don't dignify him with the term Prick as he is too wan and limp : Nor Shit for that is both necessary and useful. I didn't. Perhaps it was some kind of self-induced Freudian intervention, Carlton? Stop shooting my foxes or I won't play any more!!! |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 13, 2014 10:40:39 GMT
A note on the Ashcroft poll - 1000 respondents originally, but only about 480 included in the final published VI result.
That is a notably low figure (even MORI, with its "100% certain to vote" filter, usually has a few more than that)
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