Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 24, 2014 8:32:04 GMT
Mot bad for us in Saarfend. UKIP ramping again in some quarters.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 24, 2014 11:59:36 GMT
I think 68% is a pretty satisfying result under any circumstances, particularly as turning out voters in a safe seat in a January by-election is a thankless task. I'd also note that 2012 was, under the circumstances, a pretty good result for us and that really safe seats are unlikely to swing in the same way as marginals. Which is not to say that those crowing about it on Twitter were aware of any of that. Mot bad for us in Saarfend. UKIP ramping again in some quarters. I'd say it was a very good LD result. Mind you, the UKIP performance suggests they ought to be taking some other wards very comfortably in May. |
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Post by newsouthender on Jan 24, 2014 15:41:38 GMT
Leigh (the wider town not just the ward of that name) has a long Liberal/Lib Dem tradition going back to the seventies and before, even though it has not been that evident in West Leigh in recent years. The two wards pre boundary changes which West Leigh was made from both regularly had Lib Dem councillors at the time so it is not that surprising that some of that tradition came back in the circumstances of a by-election. It may be more difficult in May when the Lib Dems are defending five seats, including three in split wards and one where UKIP were 100 or so votes behind in 2012.
I would agree that West Leigh is not UKIPs best prospect in the town. The popular rail link into the city and great schools have made it a very desirable middle class commuter area so it doesn't really have the sort of demographic that seaside seats usually have. Another factor is that some in Leigh can be very parochial and the fact that the UKIP candidate was from the other side of the borough while the other three candidates lived in the ward will not have helped.
As for what this means for the May results in Southend who knows. The UKIP/independent pact will make things tricky for the Conservatives (and possibly Lib Dems in some places). However UKIP have stated in the local press that they are only contesting six seats which may limit their progress somewhat. Indeed some of the wards in the east of the town with what should be good UKIP demographics such as Shoebury, Southchurch & St Lukes are where the independents have already set up shop. The two things may not be unrelated!
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Post by marksenior on Jan 24, 2014 16:57:41 GMT
Leigh (the wider town not just the ward of that name) has a long Liberal/Lib Dem tradition going back to the seventies and before, even though it has not been that evident in West Leigh in recent years. The two wards pre boundary changes which West Leigh was made from both regularly had Lib Dem councillors at the time so it is not that surprising that some of that tradition came back in the circumstances of a by-election. It may be more difficult in May when the Lib Dems are defending five seats, including three in split wards and one where UKIP were 100 or so votes behind in 2012. I would agree that West Leigh is not UKIPs best prospect in the town. The popular rail link into the city and great schools have made it a very desirable middle class commuter area so it doesn't really have the sort of demographic that seaside seats usually have. Another factor is that some in Leigh can be very parochial and the fact that the UKIP candidate was from the other side of the borough while the other three candidates lived in the ward will not have helped. As for what this means for the May results in Southend who knows. The UKIP/independent pact will make things tricky for the Conservatives (and possibly Lib Dems in some places). However UKIP have stated in the local press that they are only contesting six seats which may limit their progress somewhat. Indeed some of the wards in the east of the town with what should be good UKIP demographics such as Shoebury, Southchurch & St Lukes are where the independents have already set up shop. The two things may not be unrelated! Since the last boundary changes , Leigh ward has been pretty much strongly Lib Dem and West Leigh pretty much strongly Conservative with Lib Dems a respectable but not close 2nd . The Lib Dem defence in Westborough looks very tough as the ward is normally won by Independents and/or previously Southend Alliance and the win on GE day in 2010 looks a bit of a fluke . St Laurence looks next more difficult to defend but incumbency could see the seat held . Overall the Lib Dems will be concentrating on just 6 seats , the 5 they hold with this one West Leigh |
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Post by newsouthender on Jan 24, 2014 17:53:02 GMT
Westborough is a bit of a law unto itself so a Lib Dem hold is not impossible even though the 2012 result was awful. The sitting councillor is standing again and seems quite active while one of the independents (Dr Vel) has fallen out with the others. Indeed there is a rumour that the other independent in the ward, who is the group leader, could resign in Westborough to take up the safe vacant seat in Thorpe this May. This seems pretty outlandish but time will tell. Westborough has very active but fractious residents groups but I don't have the knowledge to guess who they are supporting.
Going back in time Westborough was a longstanding Lib Dem/Labour marginal with high profile liberals like Mary Lubel representing the ward for many years. Of course this was the time when Southend West was a national Liberal/Alliance target so things have moved on a bit.
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