By-elections 2010, 2011, 2012 & 2013 updated for 2014

[middleenglander]

There were 337 seats contested in local council by-elections during 2013, including 1 where the candidate was returned unopposed. A total of 97 seats changed hands or 29% of the number contested.

The table below analyses these numbers in more detail. It also includes a comparison with not only 2012 but also 2011, when the main District Councils on a 4 year cycle held their elections, as well as 2010 when the General Election was held in May. All figures exclude deferred and delayed elections, including Exeter and Norwich in 2010.

	2013	2013	2012	2012	2011	2011	2010	2010
	Number	Changed	Number	Changed	Number	Changed	Number	Changed
England only:
- January to April	47	28%	48	40%	22	32%	41	44%
- 1st week of May, single contests	114	25%	23	13%	23	17%	38	26%
- 1st week of May, multi contests			29	17%	25	36%	45	22%
- Other May to August	56	43%	53	13%	30	37%	48	38%
- September & October	53	23%	30	37%	36	17%	58	22%
- PCC election day			34	24%
- November & December	40	33%	15	33%	26	31%	31	32%
England total	310	29%	232	25%	162	28%	261	30%
Scotland	14	43%	3	100%	18	44%	4	25%
Wales	13	8%	8	63%	12	75%	16	38%
GB total	337	29%	243	27%	192	32%	281	31%

The seats changing hands averages around 30% each year, a figure consistent with earlier studies.

In addition to these by-elections, 16 vacancies had occurred subject to the "6 month" rule, a lower figure than the 35 in 2012, 64 in 2011 and 27 in 2010 reflecting in part the number of seats being contested within the 4 year electoral cycle.  An average of 5 seats per week have fallen vacant over the last four years with some 40% or so (37% in 2013) arising from the death of a councillor.   However, on the main May election day this year, only 16% of the by-election were the result of a death with several dozen councillors elected in 2011 resigning to cause a by-election on the day of the County Council elections.

[middleenglander]

Although there are two whole months to the end of the year, the number of seats contested in local council by-elections during the year is fairly clear although there may still be a few more called for the second and third weeks of December.  The total number looks as though it will be slightly down on 2010, the same period in the electoral cycle, although vacancies then may have been boosted by councillors resigning their seats on becoming MPs in the General Election.  Likewise the number of seat changing hands is likely to be close to 30%.

The nomenclature has also been altered to reflect the annual May elections this year were a couple of weeks later than normal.
All figures exclude deferred and delayed elections including Exeter and Norwich in 2010.

	2014	2014	2013	2013	2012	2012	2011	2011	2010	2010
	Number	Changed	Number	Changed	Number	Changed	Number	Changed	Number	Changed
England only:
- January to annual	46	33%	47	28%	48	40%	22	32%	41	44%
- annual , single contests	30	20%	114	25%	23	13%	23	17%	38	26%
- annual, multi contests	40	28%			29	17%	25	36%	45	22%
- other May to August	44	39%	56	43%	53	13%	30	37%	48	38%
- September & October	43	35%	53	23%	30	37%	36	17%	58	22%
- November & December	36	25%	40	33%	49	27%	26	31%	31	32%
England total	239	31%	310	29%	232	25%	162	28%	261	30%
Scotland	17	41%	14	43%	3	100%	18	44%	4	25%
Wales	15	27%	13	8%	8	63%	12	75%	16	38%
GB total	271	31%	337	29%	243	27%	192	32%	281	31%

This table will be updated as we approach the year end.

[middleenglander]

The total number of by-elections during 2014 at 271  was slightly down on 2010, the same period in the electoral cycle, although vacancies then may have been boosted by councillors resigning their seats on becoming MPs in the General Election.  The number of seat changing hands is consistently  close to 30%.

The nomenclature has also been altered to reflect the annual May elections this year were a couple of weeks later than normal.
Where "double" elections were held in May, the candidate with the higher vote was assumed to have won the annual election and the runner up the by-electiion.
All figures exclude deferred and delayed elections including Exeter and Norwich in 2010.

	2014	2014	2013	2013	2012	2012	2011	2011	2010	2010
	Number	Changed	Number	Changed	Number	Changed	Number	Changed	Number	Changed
England only:
- January to annual	46	33%	47	28%	48	40%	22	32%	41	44%
- annual , single contests	30	20%	114	25%	23	13%	23	17%	38	26%
- annual, multi contests	40	28%			29	17%	25	36%	45	22%
- other May to August	44	39%	56	43%	53	13%	30	37%	48	38%
- September & October	43	35%	53	23%	30	37%	36	17%	58	22%
- November & December	36	25%	40	33%	49	27%	26	31%	31	32%
England total	239	31%	310	29%	232	25%	162	28%	261	30%
Scotland	17	41%	14	43%	3	100%	18	44%	4	25%
Wales	15	27%	13	8%	8	63%	12	75%	16	38%
GB total	271	31%	337	29%	243	27%	192	32%	281	31%

The number of gains and losses by party during 2014 is given by:

Party	Gains   Jan - May	Losses   Jan - May	Gains   May 22nd	Losses   May 22nd	Gains   Jun - Dec	Losses   Jun - Dec	Total gains           2014	Total losses            2014	Net gains / (losses)            2014
Conservative	4	9	3	5	10	13	17	27	(10)
Labour	2	2	5	6	9	8	16	16	-
Liberal Democrats	5	1		1	9	6	14	8	6
SNP				1	3	2	3	3	-
Plaid Cymru					1		1		1
UKIP	1		5		8	4	14	4	10
Green			4	1	1	1	5	2	3
Resident Groups	1	1			3	3	4	4	-
Independents	2	2	2	4	5	11	9	17	(8)
Social Democrat						1		1	(1)
Independent Socialist				1				1	(1)
No Description	1	1					1	1	-
Total	16	16	19	19	49	49	84	84	-

The Conservative and Independents were the main net losers during 2014 although on a relatively limited scale at least as far as the Conservatives are concerned being both the largest councillor base and also in Government.  UKIP and the Liberal Democrats were the biggest gainers, particularly UKIP from May onwards.  Labour's gains were offset by the losses to give a net nil.

[Deleted]

Net gain for the Liberal Democrats would surprise a lot of people, as perhaps would no change for the SNP.

Thanks for this.

[Tony Otim]

Dec 20, 2014 11:45:24 GMT @davedare said:

Net gain for the Liberal Democrats would surprise a lot of people, as perhaps would no change for the SNP.

Thanks for this.

Net gains and losses for seats in Scotland can be misleading to some extent as to how a party is doing. A party could defend a seat where they had only 20% of the vote compared to another party with over 40% and actually achieve a swing in their favour but lose the seat. Which isn't to say that that's always been the case with the SNP this year, but still.