|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 9, 2014 23:32:11 GMT
Here is some background to the by-election in the Barrs Court ward of Oldland Parish Council in the unitary District of South Gloucestershire. .. The present by-election in Barrs Court was caused by the resignation of Mike Newton (Con). The Conservatives have held the seat "with 60% of the vote". |
|
|
|
Post by Merseymike on Jan 9, 2014 23:33:54 GMT
White-van-man territory in Haverhill. Labour will never win Suffolk West in a month of Sundays and only get this one in a good year - like many similar areas its a town which has becoime less Labour over years. The Tories need to be seriously worried, though. Not sure I totally agree; Labour won it in 2003, which would be around the height of the anti-Iraq war sentiment, and the shine had definitely worn off Blair's crown. Also, whilst I agree Labour would never take the Parliamentary seat, shouldn't this be a "good year" so comparatively close to the 2015 General? As for the Tories, I've not checked last year's Suffolk CC results, but have UKIP demonstrated any strength outside this small corner of a rather large constituency? There's little sign that Labour have recovered in some of these type of areas, and frankly we have rarely won them other than in the two landslides. This sort of ward would have loved the Iraq war! |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 9, 2014 23:36:36 GMT
White-van-man territory in Haverhill. Labour will never win Suffolk West in a month of Sundays and only get this one in a good year - like many similar areas its a town which has becoime less Labour over years. The Tories need to be seriously worried, though. Not sure I totally agree; Labour won it in 2003, which would be around the height of the anti-Iraq war sentiment, and the shine had definitely worn off Blair's crown. Also, whilst I agree Labour would never take the Parliamentary seat, shouldn't this be a "good year" so comparatively close to the 2015 General? As for the Tories, I've not checked last year's Suffolk CC results, but have UKIP demonstrated any strength outside this small corner of a rather large constituency? Yes UKIP won four CC seats within the West Suffolk seat - two in Haverhill, one in Newmarket and one in Brandon in the far North. Labour did of course come quite close to winning West Suffolk in 1997 and to do so must have won in Haverhill by a very large margin. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2014 23:38:31 GMT
Didn't Labour gain Haverhill Town Council a couple of years ago? It's too late for me to be bothered checking.
|
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Jan 9, 2014 23:41:03 GMT
Didn't Labour gain Haverhill Town Council a couple of years ago? It's too late for me to be bothered checking. Looks now like Labour 9, Conservative 5 and UKIP 2 |
|
timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
|
Post by timmullen1 on Jan 9, 2014 23:43:39 GMT
Not sure I totally agree; Labour won it in 2003, which would be around the height of the anti-Iraq war sentiment, and the shine had definitely worn off Blair's crown. Also, whilst I agree Labour would never take the Parliamentary seat, shouldn't this be a "good year" so comparatively close to the 2015 General? As for the Tories, I've not checked last year's Suffolk CC results, but have UKIP demonstrated any strength outside this small corner of a rather large constituency? There's little sign that Labour have recovered in some of these type of areas, and frankly we have rarely won them other than in the two landslides. This sort of ward would have loved the Iraq war! Sorry but I think it's got to be concerning that Labour are under-performing from where they were in 2003; whilst we are not looking at a 1997 landslide in 2015, I do think we need to be at least where we were pre-2005 in areas outside the urban heartland. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 9, 2014 23:45:05 GMT
Pat Hanlon represents the same ward on the town council in which he was just thrashed today.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 9, 2014 23:45:23 GMT
Labour did of course come quite close to winning West Suffolk in 1997 and to do so must have won in Haverhill by a very large margin. In the simultaneous Suffolk County Council election, Labour won Haverhill North with 53.6% and a lead of 22.3% over the Conservatives, and won Haverhill South with 49.1% and a lead of 23.7% over the Liberal Democrats. They were the only divisions in West Suffolk that Labour won; however they weren't the best area of St Edmundsbury for Labour; that was Northgate and St Olave's, which includes the main council estate in Bury St Edmunds. Haverhill used to have smaller wards, which clearly showed the difference between the London overspill part of the town and the earlier bit. Labour were often unopposed in the London overspill bit in the 1980s and 1990s. |
|
|
|
Post by marksenior on Jan 9, 2014 23:51:22 GMT
Salisbury City Council St Martin and Cathedral was Labour gain Lab 538 Con 462 LD 114 No Desc 81
|
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jan 10, 2014 0:02:10 GMT
Will EAL be along declaring this to be a poor result for UKIP? No, the middle of the Fens is the sort of place where UKIP ought to win and probably would if the local branch weren't nutters to a man (and not in the way that goes down well there). Haverhill, on the other hand, is much less obviously fruitful territory for UKIP. It's in the economic orbit of Cambridge and has some appeal as a place to live because of lower rental costs, there's been a small but noticeable non-white component of the town's population for decades and it's got a sizeable manufacturing presence, at least some of which is likely still unionised. All that ought to render the Labour vote more robust and the UKIP ceiling rather lower. So this is an extremely good result for UKIP. It speaks to worrying Labour weakness in southern towns too small to dominate a parliamentary seat, which we haven't fully faced up to because a) almost none of them are in constituencies we could actually win, so plenty of people haven't noticed and b) nobody with any influence is advocating for policies specifically aimed at areas like this, because none of them have Labour MPs and they aren't the sort of towns thinktankers come from. But it also speaks to particular UKIP strength in the town - particularly as they also held a previous Haverhill by-election caused by a resignation in less than propitious circumstances. West Suffolk is starting to look like a better UKIP target than the Cambridgeshire seats, which I wouldn't have said a few months ago. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Jan 10, 2014 0:04:55 GMT
Salisbury City Council St Martin and Cathedral was Labour gain Lab 538 Con 462 LD 114 No Desc 81 | Party | 2014 share | 2013 share | Difference | | Labour | 45.0% | 41.3% | +3.7% | | Conservative | 38.7% | 31.2% | +7.5% | | Lib Dem | 9.5% | 6.4% | +3.1% | | No Description | 6.8% |
| +6.8% | | UKIP |
| 15.2% | -15.2% | | Green |
| 6.0% | -6.0% | | Total votes | 1,195 | 1,680 | -485 |
Swing ~2% Labour to Conservative since May 2013 - current Town Council versus County Council in May 2013 |
|
|
|
Post by marksenior on Jan 10, 2014 0:12:08 GMT
Salisbury City Council St Martin and Cathedral was Labour gain Lab 538 Con 462 LD 114 No Desc 81 | Party | 2014 share | 2013 share | Difference | | Labour | 45.0% | 41.3% | +3.7% | | Conservative | 38.7% | 31.2% | +7.5% | | Lib Dem | 9.5% | 6.4% | +3.1% | | No Description | 6.8% |
| +6.8% | | UKIP |
| 15.2% | -15.2% | | Green |
| 6.0% | -6.0% | | Total votes | 1,195 | 1,680 | -485 |
Swing ~2% Labour to Conservative since May 2013 - current Town Council versus County Council in May 2013 Note the No Description candidate Ken Black was the Green candidate in the 2013 UA election |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 10, 2014 0:16:08 GMT
Is anyone else wondering whether Tonbridge and Malling have decided to count tomorrow morning instead?
|
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Jan 10, 2014 0:16:44 GMT
| Party | 2014 share | 2013 share | Difference | | Labour | 45.0% | 41.3% | +3.7% | | Conservative | 38.7% | 31.2% | +7.5% | | Lib Dem | 9.5% | 6.4% | +3.1% | | No Description | 6.8% |
| +6.8% | | UKIP |
| 15.2% | -15.2% | | Green |
| 6.0% | -6.0% | | Total votes | 1,195 | 1,680 | -485 |
Swing ~2% Labour to Conservative since May 2013 - current Town Council versus Unitary Authority in May 2013 Note the No Description candidate Ken Black was the Green candidate in the 2013 UA election Hypothesis from St Edmunsbury And Salisbury: UKIP affects Conservative : Labour : Lib Dem broadly in the ration 2 : 1 : 1 |
|
carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,893
Member is Online
|
Post by carlton43 on Jan 10, 2014 0:19:13 GMT
Salisbury City Council St Martin and Cathedral was Labour gain Lab 538 Con 462 LD 114 No Desc 81 | Party | 2014 share | 2013 share | Difference | | Labour | 45.0% | 41.3% | +3.7% | | Conservative | 38.7% | 31.2% | +7.5% | | Lib Dem | 9.5% | 6.4% | +3.1% | | No Description | 6.8% |
| +6.8% | | UKIP |
| 15.2% | -15.2% | | Green |
| 6.0% | -6.0% | | Total votes | 1,195 | 1,680 | -485 |
Swing ~2% Labour to Conservative since May 2013 - current Town Council versus County Council in May 2013 The absence of both UKIP and the Greens is disappointing, but does show that UKIP are far from the sole reason for the Conservatives failure to win in many urban wards in the south. Even on a crude assessment they failed to pick up more than a half of the UKIP vote this time round. It shows that even with major elections in the offing this year and next, neither Labour nor Conservatives can capitalize on gash votes going begging, except at the margins. |
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2014 0:22:55 GMT
Is anyone else wondering whether Tonbridge and Malling have decided to count tomorrow morning instead? I'm certainly coming close to deciding that I shall wait until tomorrow to get the result |
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on Jan 10, 2014 0:25:15 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by Alun J Elder-Brown on Jan 10, 2014 0:37:29 GMT
Borough Green (Tonbridge & Malling)
IND - 692
CON - 588
UKIP - 349
LAB - 84
GREEN - 68
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2014 0:40:46 GMT
Borough Green (Tonbridge & Malling) IND - 692 CON - 588 UKIP - 349 LAB - 84 GREEN - 68 Thanks! - been looking forward to that result coming in. |
|
|
|
Post by middleenglander on Jan 10, 2014 1:33:37 GMT
St Edmunsbury, Haverhill East - UKIP gain from Conservative | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | UKIP | 529 | 54.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 240 | 24.5% | -12.7% | -16.0% | +0.9% | -0.2% | | Conservative | 157 | 16.0% | -31.9% | -29.4% | -30.0% | -28.1% | | Lib Dem | 54 | 5.5% | -9.4% | -8.6% | -11.0% | -11.1% | | Green |
|
|
|
| -13.9% | -14.7% | | Total votes | 980 |
| -762 | -606 | -404 | -325 |
Swing not meaningful Tonbridge & Malling, Borough Green & Long Mill - Independent gain from Conservative | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Independent | 692 | 38.9% | +6.1% | +9.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 588 | 33.0% | -22.5% | -24.8% | -31.1% | -30.3% | | UKIP | 349 | 19.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 84 | 4.7% | -7.0% | -8.0% | -8.0% | -8.3% | | Green | 68 | 3.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dem |
|
|
|
| -23.2% | -23.7% | | Total vote | 1,781 |
| -963 | -639 | -425 | -379 |
Swing Conservative to Independent 14% / 17% since 2011 otherwise not meaningful
|
|
