UKIP Survation Polls

[Pimpernal]

As these seem to be dripping out over a period of several days, it might be useful to have discussion of them in a separate thread so as not to clog up the standard Survation thread?

[Pimpernal]

One article on the Grimsby poll and the possible Bloom effect: www.columnist.org.uk/2013/12/03/purple-peril-grimsby/

[Devonian]

The poll results released so far

South Thanet

Lab 35%
UKIP 30%
Con 28%
LibDem 5%

survation.com/2013/11/new-constituency-polling-in-south-thanet/

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/South-Thanet-Tables.pdf

Great Grimsby

Lab 40%
UKIP 22%
Con 20%
LibDem 13%

Dudley North

Lab 45%
Con 25%
UKIP 23%
LibDem 2%

survation.com/2013/12/new-constituency-polls-in-grimsby-dudley-north/

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Combined-Grimsby-and-Dudley-Poll-Tables.pdf

[Deleted]

and as I posted in the other thread there is no evidence that if UKIP gave way to Tory that the Tories would benefit in any way.

survation.com/2013/12/new-constituency-polls-in-grimsby-dudley-north/

70% of UKIP respondents did not vote Tory anyway in 2010.

Shows the total folly of Tories try to get UKIP voters really.

[erlend]

I suspect there is some imperfect recall here. I would expect it a bit higher. Not 70%, not even 50% but higher than the Tories got in 2010.

[Deleted]

of course but we can agree the Tory/Crosby plan of veering further right than they already are i not going to win an election based on all the figures ?

[Pimpernal]

Austin Mitchell is a bit of a hero to a lot of UKIPpers - I wonder if that's why Great Grimsby was chosen? If he were to stand down and some NuLabour type put up instead I'd expect quite a swing to UKIP?

[Deleted]

how many NuLabour types have been selected so far ?

[The Bishop]

Dec 4, 2013 8:28:24 GMT Pimpernal said:

Austin Mitchell is a bit of a hero to a lot of UKIPpers - I wonder if that's why Great Grimsby was chosen? If he were to stand down and some NuLabour type put up instead I'd expect quite a swing to UKIP?

The alternative view is that a lot of locals think he should retire, and that helps explain his nearly losing last time round.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I have to say he didn't look well when he appeared at the PSA awards ceremony the other week.

[Devonian]

Dec 4, 2013 8:28:24 GMT Pimpernal said:

I wonder if that's why Great Grimsby was chosen?

From the article on the Survation website

As can be seen from the results, in these key Conservative target seats (Dudley and Grimsby are numbers 9 and 10 respectively on the list of “most winnable” seats for the Conservatives to win at the next election)

[East Anglian Lefty]

Dec 4, 2013 11:23:44 GMT Devonian said:

Dec 4, 2013 8:28:24 GMT Pimpernal said:

I wonder if that's why Great Grimsby was chosen?

From the article on the Survation website

As can be seen from the results, in these key Conservative target seats (Dudley and Grimsby are numbers 9 and 10 respectively on the list of “most winnable” seats for the Conservatives to win at the next election)

These are the second and third polls to be released, after South Thanet, which obviously isn't a Conservative target given that they won it.

It looks like the polling is in areas where UKIP are considered to have potential, presumably because of local election results. It's just that most areas where they have such potential are potentially marginal, because their path to victory depends upon coming up through the middle.

[marksenior]

The Dudley North figures are rather worse for the Conservatives than they show as the sample was pro Conservative with Conservatives ahead of Labour in 2010 votes . The samples undersampled the Lib Dems 2010 vote a little in Grimsby and a lot in Dudley North .

[Devonian]

This was Alan Brown's statement as shown on the Survation website as with their South Thanet results

ALAN BOWN CONSTITUENCY POLLS – STATEMENT FROM ALAN BOWN

This September, Lord Ashcroft published the latest in his extensive collection of opinion polls in marginal constituencies across the UK. These interesting polls have been interpreted by many as showing that a vote for UKIP was not only a wasted vote, but also a counterproductive one as it could put Miliband into No.10, supposedly against the wishes of most UKIP voters. This has since become the standard media narrative where UKIP is discussed and a regular Conservative Party attack line.

I did not share this view and was sure that UKIP's increasing popularity and support meant that the picture was much more complicated. I believed that we were taking significant numbers of votes from Labour and the Liberal Democrats as well as the Tories. I also believed that UKIP's popularity and recent phenomenal growth meant that in our strongest areas our support was likely to be significantly higher than Ashcroft’s figure of 10 - 14% nationally would suggest. In addition I felt that the fact that UKIP has generally in the past not been prompted for in many opinion polls may have further underestimated our support.

In October I commissioned Survation to undertake a series of polls, mainly in marginal and frequently Labour - held constituencies, to explore this issue from more angles than previous polling has done. In particular I was interested in the relationship between UKIP and Labour and whether in some Northern areas, where the Conservative brand is badly damaged, UKIP might have actually established itself as the official opposition to Labour.

I had intended to release the results of the first group of our polls sometime before Christmas but with the news that Laura Sandys, MP for South Thanet, is to step down at the next General Election I think now is the time to announce the results of this particular poll on its own. As can be seen from the results, the effect of UKIP has dramatically reshaped the political landscape, but in ways far more complex and interesting than the simplistic narrative of UKIP “splitting the Tory vote” would suggest.

The world of four-party politics looks to be here to stay. It is my hope that through this polling, this new political landscape can now begin to be explored.

Alan Bown
26/11/2013

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/Alan-Bown-Statement.pdf

[Devonian]

New constituency poll for Alan Brown

Eastleigh - This is the first ever constituency poll that puts UKIP in first place

UKIP 32%
Conservative 28%
Lib Dem 27%
Labour 12%
Other 3%

Also polled for Eastleigh Borough Council

Lib Dem 39%
UKIP 27%
Conservative 23%
Labour 9%
Other 2%

survation.com/still-a-3-way-marginal-new-polling-in-eastleigh-constituency-survation-for-alan-bown/

survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/Eastleigh-Constituency-Poll-Alan-Bown-MOS-April-20th.pdf

[marksenior]

The Borough Council poll has not polled the Chandlers Ford and Hiltingbury wards which are not part of the parliamentary constituency but has polled 4 Lib Dem wards where there are no elections this year .
Interestingly before weighting the 3 main parties were tied on 90 voters each in the constituency poll .

[Devonian]

Alan Brown has commissioned some new Survation constituency polls


Boston & Skegness - 5th-9th September – sample size 595

Conservative: 26% (-23)
Labour: 21% (nc)
UKIP: 46% (+36)
Liberal Democrat: 2% (-13)
Other Parties: 6% (nc)


North Thanet - 25th-26th September – sample size 571

Conservative: 33% (-19)
Labour: 24% (+2)
UKIP: 32% (+25)
Liberal Democrat: 6% (-13)
Other Parties: 5% (+5)


Rotherham – 23rd-25th September – sample size 550

Conservative: 6% (-11)
Labour: 48% (+4)
UKIP: 37% (+31)
Liberal Democrat: 4% (-12)
Other Parties: 6% (-11)

survation.com/new-constituency-polling-for-alan-bown/

[neilm]

Labour up in Rotherham, eh?

[finsobruce]

Sept 28, 2014 2:11:41 GMT neilm said:

Labour up in Rotherham, eh?

Not entirely inexplicable. All the non labour/anti Labour voters getting behind UKIP in Rotherham as they are making the charge, and the Labour/left vote staying where it is and then attracting a few more voters whose bottom line would be to stop Tories/UKIP. The other two polls show a similar thing with Labour not advancing, but not declining either . That's not to say that previously Labour voters aren't switching to UKIP. If Labour aren't increasing their vote in seats like Thanet and Rochester when they are say, six points up on 2010 in national polls this must be a factor. But they aren't going over (it would appear) in anything like the numbers of ex Tories and ex Lib Dems etc. "Discuss".