By-elections - 21st November 2013

[middleenglander]

Herefordshire, Pontrilas - It's Our County gain from Conservative

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2011	since 2007	since 2003
It's Our County	429	46.7%	+25.4%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent	261	28.4%	-4.2%	-4.8%	-25.8%
Conservative	229	24.9%	-21.2%	-13.1%	-20.9%
Green				-16.7%
Lib Dem				-12.1%
Total votes	919		-661	-422	-750

Swing Conservative to Its Our County 23% since 2011

Kirklees, Golcar - Lib Dem gain from Labour

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010	since 2008
Lib Dem	1,591	47.6%	+11.2%	+17.9%	+11.0%	+14.0%
Labour	901	27.0%	-12.8%	-6.6%	+2.6%	+6.8%
UKIP	450	13.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green	210	6.3%	-5.0%	-1.0%	+1.9%	-2.4%
Conservative	189	5.7%	-6.9%	-10.6%	-16.5%	-12.4%
Independent				-6.5%	-3.3%
BNP				-5.5%	-9.1%	-19.4%
TUSAC				-1.1%
Total votes	3,341		-1,010	-1,927	-5,306	-1,527

Swing Labour to Lib Dem 12% since both 2012 and 2011, ~4% since both 2010 and 2008

Rugby, Hillmorton - Conservative hold

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012 "top"	since 2012 "average"	since 2011 *	since 2010 *	since 2008 *
Conservative	400	33.0%	-11.9%	-12.9%	-14.0%	-17.2%	-8.5%
Labour	339	28.0%	-1.8%	-1.8%	-2.7%	+3.7%	+2.4%
UKIP	231	19.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dem	221	18.2%	-0.4%	+1.4%	+1.7%	-7.3%	-9.2%
Green	21	1.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
TUSAC			-6.6%	-7.5%	-5.9%
Independent							-5.4%
Total votes	1,212		-579	-367	-788	-1,807	-758

* boundary change in 2012, although total electorate fell from 4,246 in 2011 to 4,165 in 2012

Swing Conservative to Labour ~5½% since 2012, 2011 and 2008 , but ~10% since 2010 and 

Scarborough, Eastfield - Labour gain from Lib Dem whose candidate withdrew after nominations closed

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2010 B	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Labour	310	48.8%	+19.8%	+18.2%	+21.9%	+29.0%	+27.1%
UKIP	175	27.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Garada	97	15.3%	+3.9%	+3.1%	-3.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	32	5.0%	-4.7%%	-5.2%	-11.9%	-8.6%	-9.2%
Green	11	1.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-0.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Maxwell	10	1.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dem			-49.9%	-46.9%	-30.8%	-66.6%	-64.1%
BNP					-4.6%
Total votes	635		-303	-204	+44	-523	-385

Swing not meaningful

South Cambridgeshire, Comberton -  Conservative gain from Lib Dem

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2011	since 2007	since 2003
Conservative	378	63.4%	+25.9%	+19.2%	+33.6%
Lib Dem	96	16.1%	-36.6%	-32.1%	-44.0%
Labour	74	12.4%	+2.6%	+4.8%	from nowhere
UKIP	48	8.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green					-10.1%
Total votes	596		-463	-312	-115

Swing Lib Dem to Conservative 31% since 2011 and 25% since 2007

[marksenior]

Shepshed TC West ward Lab gain from Con Lab 314 Con 254 LD 174
North Mymms PC Brookmans Park Con hold Con 420 LD 48 Lab 27
Maldon TC West Local Resident gain from Con Local Res 238 Ind 143
Colwyn Bay TC Rhiw Con hold Con 177 Ind 147

[gwynthegriff]

So do we have any explanations for those seemingly remarkable and very different Lib Dem performances in Kirklees and Cambridgeshire?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The successful candidate in Kirklees was the incumbent councillor who had been defeated in 2012 but had stayed around and active in local campaigning. She had been a prominent councillor and had she been re-elected in 2012 would have been Mayor of Kirklees. (Her husband and daughter are also councillors.) In Comberton the resigning Liberal Democrat had 14 years' incumbency.

Access to campaigning resources must also be considered. Getting a large number of people out to campaign in a village like Comberton is more difficult than getting them to an urban, edge of town ward like Golcar.

[marksenior]

Rogerstone Comm Council West ward Lab gain from Con - Lab 293 Con 171 Plaid 37

[East Anglian Lefty]

Nov 23, 2013 17:43:47 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Access to campaigning resources must also be considered. Getting a large number of people out to campaign in a village like Comberton is more difficult than getting them to an urban, edge of town ward like Golcar.

I'm not sure that's really true. Comberton is only a couple of miles from Cambridge and there's an hourly bus, so it's hardly inaccessible. What's more, it's a small enough ward that you don't need many campaigners to saturate it. I suspect it has much more to do with candidate selection and with many potential helpers assuming the seat was already lost and not being interested in helping out.

[Merseymike]

Nov 23, 2013 17:43:47 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

The successful candidate in Kirklees was the incumbent councillor who had been defeated in 2012 but had stayed around and active in local campaigning. She had been a prominent councillor and had she been re-elected in 2012 would have been Mayor of Kirklees. (Her husband and daughter are also councillors.) In Comberton the resigning Liberal Democrat had 14 years' incumbency.

Access to campaigning resources must also be considered. Getting a large number of people out to campaign in a village like Comberton is more difficult than getting them to an urban, edge of town ward like Golcar.

Also, the Labour councillor in Kirklees had resigned after barely 18 months in position. He did have reasonable cause to step down and many in his position wouldn't. but surely he must have known that extensive regular travel and being a local councillor are difficult to combine. I think many voters may have filed this one under 'enforced unnecessary by-election'

[andrewteale]

UKIP annoy with dodgy leaflet in Horwich.

www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/10820855.UKIP_leaflet_sparks_row_ahead_of_Horwich_by_election/

The Lib Dem candidate in the Brazley by-election, Doug Bagnall, used to run a one-man party called the You Party.

[carlton43]

Nov 27, 2013 10:04:44 GMT andrewteale said:

UKIP annoy with dodgy leaflet in Horwich.

www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/10820855.UKIP_leaflet_sparks_row_ahead_of_Horwich_by_election/

The Lib Dem candidate in the Brazley by-election, Doug Bagnall, used to run a one-man party called the You Party.

Ho! Ho! Ho! After a lifetime of reading similar and far worse Liberal leaflets, what a lot of huff puff and outright hypocrisy.

[AdminSTB]

Nov 27, 2013 10:04:44 GMT andrewteale said:

UKIP annoy with dodgy leaflet in Horwich.

www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/10820855.UKIP_leaflet_sparks_row_ahead_of_Horwich_by_election/

He should have used a bar chart.

[Deleted]

The previous Labour councillor in Golcar (Paul Salveson) is well known in railway circles. And highly regarded.

[Merseymike]

Nov 28, 2013 0:21:22 GMT cogload said:

The previous Labour councillor in Golcar (Paul Salveson) is well known in railway circles. And highly regarded.

Absolutely. And it was those related commitments which led him to resign his seat.