Comres Brighton Council Poll

[Devonian]

Comres have done a poll for the 2015 Council Elections

If local elections were held tomorrow who would you vote for?

Conservative 29%(-4)
Green 21% (-12)
Labour 38% (+6)
Lib Dem 6% (+1)
UKIP 9% (+9)

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-sussex-24596817

www.comres.co.uk/polls/BBC_South_East_Brighton_&_Hove_Council_Poll_October_2013.pdf

The results include a breakdown by ward. They also include a breakdown by Westminster constituency but they are just about the council elections so although the results show Labour 'winning' the Brighton Pavillion seat in the council elections that does not take into account Caroline Lucas' personal vote.

[Deleted]

Oct 21, 2013 14:41:03 GMT @trident said:

I don't think the results of this poll are much of a surprise.

I can't remember the last time that there was a poll specifically for a local election in one authority, indeed this may be the first such poll ever done.

It's certainly interesting, someone on twitter estimated it would give Lab 28, Con 16, Grn 9, LD 1 - the best labour result in 10+ years and a majority of 1

[The Bishop]

Where would the LibDem come from?

(did they even fight every seat last time - if not, the "increase" in this poll could be a tad misleading)

[kevinlarkin]

The Lib Dems contested 45 out of 54 seats in 2011 (Green, Lab and Con all had full slates). They had no candidates in Moulescoomb & Bevenden, and incomplete slates in a few other wards. They came closest to holding a seat in Brunswick & Adelaide.

The 2011 percentages used in the comparison appear to be based on total vote, probably misleading in an authority with a mix of two and three member wards. Rallings and Thrasher using 'top vote' have Con 28.3 Lab 30.9 LD 6.0 Green 31.0.

[neilm]

I wondered if the Greens were going to screw themselves in Brighton. It appears they have.

[mrhell]

Interesting looking at the detail.

Council approval rating 18-24 year olds (54/41), 25-34 (50/47), 35-44 (47/51), 45-54 (41/55), 55-64 (32/66), 65+ (30/67).

Council approval rating AB (46/52), C1 (47/49), C2 (34/62), DE (41/56).

Where council struggling
General running of the council (38/53)
Planning and housing (26/52)
Transport (33/66)

[neilm]

'General running of the council' is a good catch all isn't it! Mental arithmetic suggests thats about the average of the second column in the age ranges bit.

[Sibboleth]

Why is everyone so credulous regarding poll internals?