Prediction competition for October 2013

[Philip Davies]

Oct 9, 2013 22:41:35 GMT Philip Davies said:

BARNSLEY - Royston

Mark BAKER (British National Party) 3
Paul BUCKLEY (Conservative Party Candidate) 6
James JOHNSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 23
Caroline MAKINSON (Labour Party Candidate) 65
Justin SAXTON (English Democrats - "Putting England First!") 3


GLASGOW - Govan

Moira CRAWFORD (Scottish Green Party) 3
John FLANAGAN (No Bedroom Tax - No Welfare Cuts) 11
Ewan HOYLE (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1.5
John KANE (Scottish Labour Party) 41
Janice MACKAY (UKIP) 5
Richard SULLIVAN (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 3
Helen WALKER (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 31
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Charles BAILLIE (Britannica)
Ryan BOYLE (Communist Party of Britain)
John CORMACK (Scottish Christian Party "Proclaiming Christ's Lordship")
Joyce DRUMMOND (Solidarity)
George LAIRD (Independent)
Thomas RANNACHAN (Independent)
James TROLLAND (Scottish Democratic Alliance)
All of the above 4.5 between them


MANCHESTER - Ancoats and Clayton

Pete BIRKINSHAW (Green Party) 8
Gareth BLACK (British National Party) 2
John BRIDGES (Liberal Democrat) 4
Loz KAYE (Pirate Party UK) 3
Donna LUDFORD (Labour Party Candidate) 63
Nicholas SAVAGE (Conservative and Unionist Party) 5
Adrienne SHAW (UK Independence Party) 15


NORTH YORKSHIRE - South Selby

Colin HEATH (UKIP) 20
Mike JORDAN (Conservative Party Candidate) 33
David MCSHERRY (Independent) 12
Rod PRICE (Labour Party Candidate) 35


SALFORD - Weaste and Seedley

Stephen HESLING (The Labour Party Candidate) 53
Adam KENNAUGH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 14
Andrew OLSEN (Green Party) 4.5
Kay POLLITT (British National Party) 4
Terry SIMMONS (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1.5
Matt SIMPSON (Independent) 3
Glyn WRIGHT (UK Independence Party) 20


SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE - Brewood and Coven

Moira ALDEN-COURT (Independent) 16
Lorna JONES (The Labour Party Candidate) 25
Christopher LENTON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 20
Wendy SUTTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 39


SCOTTISH BORDERS - Tweeddale West

Keith COCKBURN (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 20
David COX (Independent) 5
Mars GOODMAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 7
Morag KERR (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 20
Veronica MCTERNAN (Scottish Labour Party Candidate) 10
Nancy NORMAN (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 29
David PYE (The Borders Party) 9


WEST LANCASHIRE - Parbold

Clare GILLARD (The Labour Party Candidate) 31
Damon NOONE (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 18
David WHITTINGTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 51

[middleenglander]

And then there were eight, with Dibs failing to make an appearance.
greatkingrat gets 1 additional point for adding to 99% in South Staffordshire whilst Pete Whitehead gets 100 additional faults for forgetting there is a contest in West Lancashire.
Mark Senior is not faulted but the UKIP candidate in Glasgow is predicted to get 0.0%.

A large degree of unanimity over the winners / leaders on first preference.

100% Labour in Barnsley, Glasgow, Manchester and Salford
100% Conservative in South Staffordshire and West Lancashire (apart from Pete)
100% Lib Dem in Scottish Borders
6 Conservative holds in North Yorshire with Andrew Teale and PhilDav plumping for a Labour gain.

[Pete Whitehead]

Fuck sake. Didn't forget there was a byelection in West Lancashire but clearly forgot to check I'd copied the prediction from spreadsheet to email.

[Robert Waller]

That's rotten luck, Pete.
Do we have andrew teale's predictions?

[Philip Davies]

I know the feeling.

[Pete Whitehead]

Never mind. When it comes to doing the dorm guide thing I think 'Situation rules' apply

[andrewteale]

Oct 9, 2013 23:25:16 GMT andrewteale said:

ANCOATS AND CLAYTON: Lab 65 UKIP 15 Grn 8 BNP 3 C 3 LD 3 Pirate 3
WEASTE AND SEEDLEY: Lab 45 UKIP 25 C 16 Grn 4 Ind 4 BNP 3 TUSC 3
PARBOLD: C 48 UKIP 27 Lab 25
ROYSTON: Lab 57 UKIP 27 BNP 7 C 6 EDP 3
SOUTH SELBY: Lab 36 C 34 Ind 15 UKIP 15
BREWOOD AND COVEN: C 45 Lab 20 UKIP 20 Ind 15
GOVAN first preferences: Lab 34 SNP 31 NoBedTex 19 C 4 Grn 3 LD 2 UKIP 2 All others 5
TWEEDDALE WEST first preferences: LD 34 SNP 22 C 19 Lab 10 Borders 8 Ind 4 UKIP 3

[marksenior]

Oct 10, 2013 18:39:08 GMT middleenglander said:

Mark Senior is not faulted but the UKIP candidate in Glasgow is predicted to get 0.0%.

I don't think I will be far wrong with that LOL

[Philip Davies]

Oct 10, 2013 21:02:39 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Never mind. When it comes to doing the dorm guide thing I think 'Situation rules' apply

LOL I remember him trying to declare himself the "People's Champion". Strangely he seems to do better at real elections in Crawley!

[Pete Whitehead]

fwiw I think I would have had about 20-25 faults in West Lancashire had I managed to actually post my prediction. The prediction doesn't appear on my spreadsheet which is why it was never copied over, but I do remember making a prediction so I must somehow have overtyped it with the next prediction. My figures were something like Con 50.? Lab 29.? UKIP 19.?

[Tony Otim]

I make it that at the moment Phil leads me by just 0.1 faults with hempie a further 10 back.

[linders]

Pleased to have outperformed the expectations of most forum users in Weaste & Seedley once again

[Pete Whitehead]

Yes well done Iain. You almost got as many votes as a fringe party

[middleenglander]

Barnsley, Royston
tonyotim 4.8 faults, PhilDav 5.1, hempie 9.1, Pete Whitehead 10.1, Mark Senior 12.6, Robert Waller 14.6, greatkingrat 14.8, Andrew Teale 20.8

Glasgow, Govan
PhilDav 11.5 faults, Pete Whitehead 13.8, Mark Senior 19.2, greatkingrat 19.5, hempie 20.3, tonyotim 20.9, Andrew Teale 23.2, Robert Waller 27.5

Manchester, Ancoats & Clayton
tonyotim 9.9 faults, greatkingrat 12.6, Pete Whitehead 14.0, hempie 14.6, Mark Senior 16.0, Andrew Teale 18.0, PhilDav 20.6, Robert Waller 28.0

North Yorkshire, Selby South
greatkingrat 2.0 faults, Mark Senior 4.4, Robert Waller 9.6, Pete Whitehead 11.4, hempie 14.4, tonyotim 15.6, PhilDav 9.1+10, Andrew Teale 11.2+10

Salford, Weaste & Seedley
PhilDav 10.8 faults, Robert Waller 15.2, Pete Whitehead 16.8, tonyotim 17.6, Andrew Teale 21.0, greatkingrat 22.8, hempie & Mark Senior 26.8

Scottish Borders
Pete Whitehead 36.3+10, tonyotim 41.5+10, greatkingrat & Robert Waller 42.1+10, hempie, Mark Senior & PhilDav 45.3+10, Andrew Teale 48.1+10

South Staffordshire, Brewood & Coven
hempie 12.6 faults, Mark Senior 14.2, Pete Whitehead 15.0, PhilDav 16.2, tonyotim 19.0, Andrew Teale 22.6, Robert Waller 24.2, greatkingrat 25.6+1

West Lancashire, Parbold
tonyotim 12.4 faults, hempie 12.5, PhilDav & Mark Senior 20.5, greatkingrat 26.5, Robert Waller 28.5, Andrew Teale 35.6, Pete Whitehead 100

and for the week:
tonyotim 151.8 faults, PhilDav 159.1, hempie 165.6, Mark Senior 168.8, greatkingrat 176.9, Robert Waller 199.6, Andrew Teale 220.5, Pete Whitehead 227.5

If Pete Whitehead had posted as indicated for West Lancashire, his faults would have been some 75 lower and he may have been the week's leader.

For the month to date:

285.1 tonyotim
289.4 PhilDav
291.2 hempie
308.4 Mark Senior

323.9 greatkingrat
361.0 Robert Waller
375.2 Pete Whitehead
399.7 Andrew Teale

Objections please by noon on Sunday

There are 6 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday

[Robert Waller]

CARLISLE - Dalston (Conservative resigned)

Ruth ALCROFT (The Labour Party Candidate) 20
Robert DICKINSON (UK Independence Party) 12
Michael GEE (Liberal Democrat) 27
Michael RANDALL (The Conservative Party Candidate) 39
James TUCKER (The Green Party) 2

CHICHESTER - Westbourne (Conservative resigned)

Alicia DENNY (UK Independence Party) 34
Mark DUNN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 43
Andrew EMERSON (Patria) 1
Thomas FRENCH (Green Party) 4
Philip MACDOUGALL (Liberal Democrat) 18

LUTON - Barnfield (Liberal Democrat resigned)

Simon HALL (Green Party) 3
Clive MEAD (Liberal Democrats) 36
Geoff SIMONS (Conservative and Unionist Party) 22
Francis STEER (Labour Party Candidate) 39

NEATH AND PORT TALBOT - Sandsfield East (Labour died)

Mike DAVIES (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 53
Barry KIRK (Port Talbot Residents Association) 30
Richard MINSHULL (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 5
Keith SUTER (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 5
Daniel THOMAS (Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales) 7

SOUTH LAKELAND - Levens (Liberal Democrat resigned)

Annie RAWLINSON (Liberal Democrats) 60
Brian RENDELL (The Conservative Party Candidate) 40

THURROCK - Stifford Clays (Labour died)

Clive BROAD (UKIP Local Residents) 34
Kevin MULROUE (Liberal Democrat) 2
Danny NICKLEN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 16
Susan SHINNICK (Labour Party Candidate) 48

[greatkingrat]

CARLISLE - Con 34, LD 33, Lab 16, UKIP 14, Grn 3
CHICHESTER - Con 42, LD 28, UKIP 26, Grn 3, Patria 1
LUTON - LD 39, Lab 33, Con 24, Grn 4
NEATH - Lab 53, PTRA 22, PC 13, Con 7, UKIP 5
SOUTH LAKELAND - LD 57, Con 43
THURROCK - Lab 40, UKIP 33, Con 24, LD 3

[hempie]

Carlisle, Dalston: LD 35, Con 26, Lab 20, UKIP 15, Green 4
Chichester, Westbourne: Con 43, LD 34, UKIP 18, Green 4, Patria 1
Luton, Barnfield: Lab 36, LD 34,Con 25, Green 5
Neath & Port Talbot, Sandsfield East: Lab 49, PTRA 35, PC 8, Con 5, UKIP 3
South Lakeland: LD 60.5, Con 39.5
Thurrock, Stifford Clays:Lab 42, UKIP 30, Con 23, LD 5

[marksenior]

Carlisle Con 35 LD 27 Lab 21 UKIP 14 Green 3
Chichester Con 39 UKIP 31 LD 24 Green 5 Patria 1
Luton LD 38 Lab 35 Con 22 Green 5
Neath Lab 46 PTRA 35 Plaid 12 UKIP 4 Con 3
S Lakeland LD 56 Con 44
Thurrock Lab 46 UKIP 29 Con 22 LD 3

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 16, 2013 20:24:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Luton UA - Barnfield

LD   39.7%
Con 28.3%
Lab 27.3%
Grn  4.7%


Thurrock UA - Stifford Clays

Lab   38.7%
UKIP 35.3%
Con  22.5%
LD     3.5%


Carlisle BC - Dalston

Con  35.1%
LD    34.3%
Lab   13.8%
UKIP 12.4%
Grn    4.4%


Chichester DC - Westbourne

Con  40.3%
UKIP 31.7%
LD    20.8%
Grn    6.1%
Pat    1.1%


South Lakeland DC - Levens

LD   60.3%
Con 39.7%


Neath & Port Talbot CC - Sandfields East

Lab    42.3%
PTRA 36.5%
UKIP  10.5%
PC       6.8%
Con     3.9%

[Tony Otim]

Oct 15, 2013 11:00:15 GMT Tony Otim said:

Carlisle:
Con 39.2
Lab 22.1
LD 19.8
UKIP 15.5
Grn 3.4

Chichester:
Con 39.9
UKIP 35.1
LD 19.6
Grn 4.3
Patria 1.1

Luton:
Lab 37.4
LD 33.6
Con 24.1
Grn 4.9

Neath Port Talbot:
Lab 42.2
PTRA 20.4
PC 15.4
UKIP 14.1
Con 7.9

South Lakeland:
LD 54.2
Con 45.8

Thurrock
Lab 39.8
UKIP 33.1
Con 22.6
LD 4.5