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Post by middleenglander on Sept 28, 2013 17:46:49 GMT
It looks like 29 by-elections during the month:
* 4 on 3rd October
* 8 on 10th October
* 6 on 17th October
* 10 on 24th October
* 1 on 31st October
9 of the contests are in District Councils where the last main election was in 2011
- although one late Councillor had been elected in a May 2013 by-election and there was also a by-election in another of the wards
4 are in District Councils where the last main elections were in 2012
5 are in Metropolitan Borough where the last main elections were in 2012
- although there was a June 2013 by-election in one seat
3 are in County Councils where the councillors were only elected in May this year
2 are in Unitary Authorities where the last elections were in 2011
4 are in Scottish Councils last elected in 2012
2 are in Welsh Councils again elected in 2012
Conservatives are defending 11 seats, 5 following the death of the previous councillor and 6 after resignation
Labour are defending 10 seats, 4 following a death and 6 a resignation
Lib Dems are defending 5 seats, 1 death and 4 resignations
SNP are defending 2 seats both following the death of the previous councillor whilst
Independents are defending 1 seat after their councillor resigned
With nominations published for the 29 seats:
Conservatives are contesting all 29, Labour 27, UKIP 25, Lib Dems 21, Greens 12 and Independents have 11 candidates contesting 9 seats
SNP have 4 candidates, BNP have 3 and Plaid Cymru 2 whilst there is a string of other parties giving 149 candidates
Borders, Britannica, Brit Democrats, Christian (2 varieties), Communist, Community Action, Democratic Alliance, English Democrats, No Bedroom Tax, Patria, Pirate, Port Talbot Residents, Solidarity, TUSAC
There are 14 candidates in Glasgow on 10th October which is too many in my opinion for the prediction competition. Can I suggest we have Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green, No Bedroom Tax (candidate stood as an Independent in 2012 polling 644 votes) with all the other 7 accumulated so there are effectively 8 candidates.
Predictions on the thread by 9.00 am on day of election.
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Post by Robert Waller on Sept 29, 2013 20:19:07 GMT
AYLESBURY VALE - Oakfield (Liberal Democrat died)
Phil GOMM (UK Independence Party) 25%
Allison HARRISON (Liberal Democrats) 28
Patrick MARTIN (Independent) 9
Roy MCNICKLE (The Labour Party Candidate) 16
Edward SIMS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 22
EAST LINDSEY - Chapel St Leonards (Independent resigned)
Fiona BROWN (Labour Party Candidate) 10
Giles CRUST (UK Independence Party) 30
Richard ENDERBY (Independent) 9
Kevin SHARPE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 18
Mel TURTON-LEIVERS (Independent) 33
ST EDMUNDSBURY - Abbeygate (Conservative died)
Quentin CORNISH (The Labour Party Candidate) 12
Mark EREIRA-GUYER (The Green Party) 37
Chris LALE (Liberal Democrats) 8
Joanna RAYNER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 31
Clive REASON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 12
TAUNTON DEANE - Taunton Halcon (Liberal Democrat resigned)
Dorothy BAKER (United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)) 29
Anna LYNCH (The Labour Party Candidate) 13
Marcus PALMER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 14
Federica SMITH (Liberal Democrat) 44
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dibs
Non-Aligned
Posts: 63
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Post by dibs on Oct 1, 2013 22:04:52 GMT
AYLESBURY VALE - Oakfield
LIB DEM 25 CON 22 UKIP 20 LAB 18 MARTIN 15
EAST LINDSEY - Chapel St Leonards
TURTON-LEIVERS 30 UKIP 25 CON 20 LAB 15 ENDERBY 5
ST EDMUNDSBURY - Abbeygate
CON 33 GREEN 30 LAB 18 UKIP 14 LIB DEM 5
TAUNTON DEANE - Taunton Halcon
LIB DEM 40 UKIP 30 CON 15 LAB 15
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Post by greatkingrat on Oct 3, 2013 0:17:12 GMT
AYLESBURY - LD 29, Con 23, Lab 20, UKIP 16, Ind 12
EAST LINDSEY - Enderby 24, Turton 23, Con 22, UKIP 18, Lab 13
ST EDMUNDSBURY - Grn 34, Con 32, UKIP 15, Lab 11, LD 8
TAUNTON DEANE - LD 45, UKIP 25, Con 16, Lab 14
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Post by hempie on Oct 3, 2013 7:13:58 GMT
Aylesbury Vale, Oakfield: LD 30, Con 27, UKIP 20, Lab 13, Ind 10
East Lindsey, Chapel St Leonard's: Turton-Leivers 27, Con 25, UKIP 20, Enderby 17, Lab 11
St Edmundsbury, Abbeygate: Green 35, Con 34, Lab 13, UKIP 10, LD 8 (this is a heart ruling over head prediction!)
Taunton Deane, Taunton Halcon: LD 38, UKIP 27, Con 18, Lab 17
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Post by marksenior on Oct 3, 2013 7:25:06 GMT
Aylesbury LD 27 UKIP 22 CON 18 LAB 17 IND 16
East Lindsey IND T-L 36 UKIP 22 CON 19 IND E 12 LAB 11
ST EDMUNDSBURY CON 30 GREEN 26 UKIP 17 LD 14 LAB 13
TAUNTON LD 41 UKIP 26 CON 19 LAB 14
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 3, 2013 7:59:19 GMT
An intriguing set of contests to start the month. Aylesbury Vale: UKIP 29.2 LD 24.6 Con 20.8 Lab 15.2 Ind 10.2 East Lindsey: Ind E 28.8 UKIP 25.3 Con 24.2 Lab 18.3 INd T-L 3.4 St Edmundsbury: Con 30.5 Grn 30.1 UKIP 16.8 Lab 12.2 LD 10.4 (This is a tactical prediction - every time I back the Greens we lose  ) Taunton: LD 42.1 UKIP 24.3 Con 17.9 Lab 15.7 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 3, 2013 8:52:32 GMT
Aylesbury Vale DC - Oakfield UKIP 33.7% LD 24.3% Con 21.4% Lab 16.8% Ind 3.8% East Lindsey DC - Chapel St Leonards Ind T-L 30.1% UKIP 25.2% Con 22.1% Lab 17.2% Ind E 5.4% St Edmundsbury BC - Abbeygate Con 36.1% Grn 24.2% UKIP 16.3% Lab 12.1% LD 11.2% Taunton Deane BC - Taunton Halcon LD 41.1% UKIP 25.7% Lab 17.1% Con 16.1% |
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 3, 2013 9:51:51 GMT
AYLESBURY VALE - Oakfield Phil GOMM (UK Independence Party) 22 Allison HARRISON (Liberal Democrats) 30 Patrick MARTIN (Independent) 10 Roy MCNICKLE (The Labour Party Candidate) 15 Edward SIMS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 23 EAST LINDSEY - Chapel St Leonards Fiona BROWN (Labour Party Candidate) 15 Giles CRUST (UK Independence Party) 14 Richard ENDERBY (Independent) 15 Kevin SHARPE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 25 Mel TURTON-LEIVERS (Independent) 31 ST EDMUNDSBURY - Abbeygate Quentin CORNISH (The Labour Party Candidate) 10 Mark EREIRA-GUYER (The Green Party) 36 Chris LALE (Liberal Democrats) 8 Joanna RAYNER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 33 Clive REASON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 13 TAUNTON DEANE - Taunton Halcon Dorothy BAKER (United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)) 22 Anna LYNCH (The Labour Party Candidate) 15 Marcus PALMER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 21 Federica SMITH (Liberal Democrat) 42 |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 3, 2013 9:59:40 GMT
Hmmm... I will either do very well or spectacularly badly in relation to field in East Lindsey.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 3, 2013 21:23:10 GMT
Just 9 entries this week with nothing from Arthur Figgis, Catholic Left and Just Looking.
Andrew Teale:
Aylesbury Vale: UKIP 24, LD 22, Con 21, Lab 17, Ind 16
East Lindsey: Ind T-L 26, Con 25, Ind E 24, UKIP 15, Lab 10
St Edmunsbury: Green 42, Con 37, Lab 12, LD 9 - nothing for UKIP
Taunton Deane: LD 42, UKIP 30, Lab 18, Con 10
Dibs gets 5 additional points for adding to 95% in East Lindsey and Pete Whitehead 0.1 additional faults for adding to 99.9 in St Edmunsbury
Aylesbury Vale; 6 Lib Dem holds, Andrew Teale, Pete Whitehead & tonyotim a UKIP gain
East Lindsey: 7 Ind T-L wins, greatkingrat & tonyotim Ind E wins
St Edmunsbury: 5 Green gains from Conservastive, Dibs, Mark Senior, Pete Whitehead & tonyotim a Conservative hold
Taunton Deane: 100% Lib Dem hold
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 3, 2013 22:33:18 GMT
Aylesbury Vale, Oakfield
PhilDav & Robert Waller 21.5 faults, hempie 25.5, Mark Senior 27.3, tonyotim 20.4+10, Dibs & greatkingrat 35.3, Andrew Teale 33.3+10, Pete Whitehead 33.6+10
East Lindsey, Chapel St Leonards
greatkingrat 45.0+10, hempie 47.2+10, tonyotim 54.3+10, PhilDav 55.2+10, Andrew Teale 57.0+10, Mark Senior 57.2+10, Pete Whitehead 58.0+10, Dibs 58.2+5+10, Robert Waller 65.2+10
St Edmundsbury, Abbeygate
Pete Whitehead 21.1+0.1, tonyotim 24.6, Dibs 29.4, Mark Senior 29.8, hempie 21.6+10, PhilDav 23.4+10, greatkingrat 25.4+10, Robert Waller 27.4+10, Andrew Teale 33.6+10
Taunton Deane, Halcon
PhilDav 10.3 faults, hempie 11.3, tonyotim 14.1, Pete Whitehead 14.9, Mark Senior 15.3, Dibs & greatkingrat 21.3, Andrew Teale 25.3, Robert Waller 27.3
and for the first week of October:
125.6 hempie
130.3 PhilDav
133.4 tonyotim
139.6 Mark Senior
147.0 greatkingrat
147.7 Pete Whitehead
159.1 Dibs
161.3 Robert Waller
179.2 Andrew Teale
Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday.
There are 8 contests next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.
As there are 14 candidates in Glasgow, predictions are required for Con, Lab, LD, SNP, UKIP, Green, No Bedroom Tax with the remaining seven candidates consolidated in "Others".
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 4, 2013 19:00:43 GMT
I hadn't realised this was up to date. I look out for new posts and ME gets round this by editing an existing one. Not a fantastic weak for any of us really, but congratulations to Hempie who had the best of it
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 5, 2013 10:47:01 GMT
Yes, congratulations to Hempie.
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 9, 2013 21:47:17 GMT
BARNSLEY - Royston (Labour resigned)
Mark BAKER (British National Party) 4%
Paul BUCKLEY (Conservative Party Candidate) 4
James JOHNSON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 28
Caroline MAKINSON (Labour Party Candidate) 62
Justin SAXTON (English Democrats - "Putting England First!") 2
GLASGOW - Govan (SNP died)
Moira CRAWFORD (Scottish Green Party) 3
John FLANAGAN (No Bedroom Tax - No Welfare Cuts) 20
Ewan HOYLE (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 1
John KANE (Scottish Labour Party) 33
Janice MACKAY (UKIP) 3
Richard SULLIVAN (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 2
Helen WALKER (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 32
Others 6
MANCHESTER - Ancoats and Clayton (Labour resigned)
Pete BIRKINSHAW (Green Party) 8
Gareth BLACK (British National Party) 3
John BRIDGES (Liberal Democrat) 5
Loz KAYE (Pirate Party UK) 2
Donna LUDFORD (Labour Party Candidate) 60
Nicholas SAVAGE (Conservative and Unionist Party) 4
Adrienne SHAW (UK Independence Party) 18
NORTH YORKSHIRE - South Selby (Conservative died)
Colin HEATH (UKIP) 19
Mike JORDAN (Conservative Party Candidate) 33
David MCSHERRY (Independent) 16
Rod PRICE (Labour Party Candidate) 32
SALFORD - Weaste and Seedley (Labour resigned)
Stephen HESLING (The Labour Party Candidate) 51
Adam KENNAUGH (The Conservative Party Candidate) 14
Andrew OLSEN (Green Party) 4.5
Kay POLLITT (British National Party) 4
Terry SIMMONS (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 1.7
Matt SIMPSON (Independent) 2.8
Glyn WRIGHT (UK Independence Party) 22
SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE - Brewood and Coven (Conservative resigned)
Moira ALDEN-COURT (Independent) 20
Lorna JONES (The Labour Party Candidate) 20
Christopher LENTON (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 20
Wendy SUTTON (The Conservative Party Candidate) 40
SCOTTISH BORDERS - Tweeddale West (Conservative resigned)
Keith COCKBURN (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 22
David COX (Independent) 8
Mars GOODMAN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 4
Morag KERR (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 20
Veronica MCTERNAN (Scottish Labour Party Candidate) 8
Nancy NORMAN (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 30
David PYE (The Borders Party) 8
WEST LANCASHIRE - Parbold (Conservative died)
Clare GILLARD (The Labour Party Candidate) 27
Damon NOONE (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 23
David WHITTINGTON (The Conservative Party 50
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Post by greatkingrat on Oct 9, 2013 22:41:42 GMT
BARNSLEY - Lab 60, UKIP 26, Con 6, BNP 5, ED 3
GLASGOW - Lab 37, SNP 35, NBT 10, Grn 5, UKIP 4, Con 2.5, LD 1.5, Others 5
MANCHESTER - Lab 68, UKIP 12, Grn 8, Con 5, LD 3, BNP 2, PP 2
NORTH YORKSHIRE - Con 36, Lab 33, UKIP 18, Ind 13
SALFORD - Lab 46, UKIP 25, Con 15, Grn 5, BNP 4, Ind 3, TUSC 2
SOUTH STAFFORDSHIRE - Con 42, UKIP 27, Lab 18, Ind 12
SCOTTISH BORDERS - LD 32, Con 23, SNP 21, Lab 9, BP 7, UKIP 4, Ind 4
WEST LANCASHIRE - Con 51, Lab 28, UKIP 21
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Post by hempie on Oct 10, 2013 7:03:56 GMT
Barnsley, Royston: Lab 66, UKIP 20, Con 6, BNP 5, ED 3
Glasgow, Govan: Lab 36, SNP 30, NBT 9, Green 6, UKIP 6, Con 5, LD 4, Others 4
Manchester, Ancoats & Clayton: Lab 65, UKIP 10, Green 7.5, Con 6.5, LD 5, BNP 3, PP 3
North Yorkshire, South Selby: Con 41, Lab 36, UKIP 13, Ind 10
Salford, Weaste & Seedley: Lab 47, UKIP 27, Con 10, BNP 5, Ind 5, Green 4, TUSC 2
South Staffordshire, Brewood & Coven: Con 43, Lab 27, UKIP 18, Ind 12
Scottish Borders, Tweeddale West: LD 25, SNP 21, Con 20,Lab 12.5, BP 11.5, UKIP 5, Ind 5
West Lancashire, Parbold: Con 53, Lab 35, UKIP 12
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Post by marksenior on Oct 10, 2013 7:39:13 GMT
Barnsley Lab 62 UKIP 25 Con 5 BNP 5 Eng Dem 3
Glasgow Lab 37 SNP 34 NBT 12 Green 5 Con 4 LD 2 Others 6
Manchester Lab 66 UKIP 14 Green 6 LD 5 Con 4 BNP 3 PP 2
N Yorks Con 38 Lab 34 UKIP 17 Ind 11
Salford Lab 44 UKIP 26 Con 13 Green 5 Ind 5 BNP 4 TUSC 3
S Staffs Con 40 Lab 25 UKIP 20 Ind 15
Scot Borders LD 25 Con 20 SNP 20 Lab 13 Borders 9 Ind 7 UKIP 6
West Lancs Con 51 Lab 31 UKIP 18
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 10, 2013 8:06:04 GMT
Barnsley MB - Royston Lab 66.8% UKIP 19.1% Con 5.5% BNP 5.4% ED 3.2% Manchester MB - Ancoats & Clayton Lab 65.5% UKIP 10.4% Grn 7.6% Con 6.2% LD 4.5% BNP 3.1% P 2.7% Salford MB - Weaste & Seedley Lab 50.4% UKIP 22.4% Con 13.3% Grn 4.4% BNP 3.7% Ind 3.3% TUSC 2.5% North Yorkshire CC - South Selby Con 36.1% Lab 35.2% Ind 15.9% UKIP 12.8% South Staffordshire DC- Brewood & Coven Con 39.4% Lab 25.2% UKIP 21.8% Ind 13.6% Glasgow - Govan Lab 39.9% SNP 35.4% Bed tax 7.6% Con 4.1% Grn 3.4% UKIP 2.2% LD 2.1% Oth 5.3% Scottish Borders - Tweedale West LD 28.3% Con 24.8% SNP 19.6% Lab 8.7% BP 8.1% UKIP 5.3% Ind 5.2% |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 10, 2013 8:23:26 GMT
Barnsley Lab 66.6 UKIP 24.1 Con 4.3 ED 2.8 BNP 2.2 Glasgow Lab 34.5 SNP 33.1 NBT 12.1 Con 3.3 Grn 2.8 UKIP 2.1 LD 1.5 Oth 10.6 (FWIW - Labour to win on transfers. The best of the others will probably beat LD and UKIP). Manchester Lab 70.0 UKIP 8.8 Grn 6.9 Con 6.3 LD 4.0 PP 2.2 BNP 1.8 N.Yorks Con 36.7 Lab 36.5 Ind 16.7 UKIP 10.1 Salford Lab 46.8 UKIP 21.9 Con 16.1 Grn 5.1 BNP 4.0 Ind 3.9 TUSC 2.2 S. Staffs Con 42.1 UKIP 22.1 Lab 21.8 Ind 14.0 Scottish BOrders LD 30.2 Con 22.5 SNP 20.2 Lab 9.9 BP 7.8 Ind 5.2 UKIP 4.2 (FWIW LDs to hold on, SNP might overtake the Conservatives, but won't catch them). W.Lancs Con 49.2 Lab 35.4 UKIP 15.4 |
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