tim13
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Post by tim13 on Oct 4, 2013 7:40:52 GMT
Yes, I think you're right Pete - our result the other week in Exmouth Town Council by, along with others, including last night Taunton, show that. Results like May's however, when it is all-up elections
are much more problematic for Lib Dems, where personal contact cannot be managed on as wide a basis.
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tim13
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Post by tim13 on Oct 4, 2013 7:42:39 GMT
Thought UKIP did not have a good night last night. Did you feel that was a Conference "downward bounce"?
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2013 7:56:32 GMT
UKIP came second in 3 of the 4 contests last night. If people are saying that represents a bad night for them, then it really is, paradoxically, a sign of their success. The Aylersbury result is disappointing for them, but is still a very decent vote share.
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tim13
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Post by tim13 on Oct 4, 2013 8:05:29 GMT
Yes, of course it is a sign of their success. I thought their result at St Edmundsbury was very poor, and their performance at Chapel St Leonards was awful
against Labour, in an area they have been winning - perhaps just another sign they are falling apart in Lincolnshire? I also think their result in Taunton
was as bad as their result in Aylesbury - bearing in mind the earlier by election there they should have been looking at being a lot closer to the Lib Dems.
In fact I think Aylesbury was their joint best result last night.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 4, 2013 8:32:58 GMT
There are specific problems in Lincolnshire but I don't get the impression generally that UKIP has performed more poorly since the conference, for example we had another very good result in Kent last week. The result in Bury was no worse than I would have expected actually
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2013 8:47:28 GMT
The Lincolnshire result needs to be placed in the context that this ward is in one of the few divisions where they didn't stand in May, which means that there's probably not much an active presence in the area. There's also a long standing indy tradition which would also attract the protest vote and the UKIP candidate increased the vote share he got as an independant in May. I wouldn't describe that as awful.
The fact that the Greens are strong in that St Edmundsbury ward suggests that the demographics are maybe not UKIP's best, but Pete probably has more knowledge there than me.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2013 8:50:21 GMT
In fact I'd suggest East Lindsey was a good result for Labour and an attrocious one for the Conservatives, with UKIP and the 2 indies splitting the none of the above vote three ways to let Labour in.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2013 9:30:04 GMT
I certainly wouldn't describe UKIP's results this week as "awful", though I did think they had a real chance of winning in Aylesbury.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2013 10:04:35 GMT
eneral Election @ukelections2015
LASTNIGHTS SHARE OF THE VOTE
CON 21.6% (-9.3%)
UKIP 20.7% (+11.3%)
LD 19.7% (-0.1%)
LAB 19.1% (+6.9%)
IND 12.8% (-7.3%)
GREEN 6.1% (-1.4%)
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tim13
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Post by tim13 on Oct 4, 2013 10:11:09 GMT
What are you comparing results with Ian?
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Post by nigelashton on Oct 4, 2013 10:20:59 GMT
eneral Election @ukelections2015 LASTNIGHTS SHARE OF THE VOTE CON 21.6% (-9.3%) UKIP 20.7% (+11.3%) LD 19.7% (-0.1%) LAB 19.1% (+6.9%) It's a four-horse race  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 4, 2013 10:22:31 GMT
that was a tweet I picked up on that a couple of labour people and UKIP tweeted ....
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Post by erlend on Oct 4, 2013 11:12:57 GMT
I don't think I will use lat night alone as a GE predictor. God knows what FPTP would make of it.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 4, 2013 11:14:51 GMT
Aylesbury Vale, Oakfield - Lib Dem hold | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Lib Dem | 406 | 34.8% | +7.4% | +7.1% | -7.9% | -7.1% | | UKIP | 325 | 27.8% | +16.0% | +16.6% | +19.5% | +19.3% | | Conservative | 173 | 14.8% | -10.0% | -11.0% | -13.7% | -14.0% | | Labour | 145 | 12.4% | -7.0% | -5.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | 118 | 10.1% | -5.5% | -7.4% | -10.4% | -10.8% | | Total votes | 1,167 |
| -568 | -257 | -300 | -275 |
Swing Lib Dem to UKIP ~4½% since 2011 accompanied by Conservative to Lib Dem ~9% East Lindsey, Chapel St Leonards - Labour gain from Independent | Party | 2013 votes | 2013 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Labour | 382 | 33.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP | 228 | 20.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent E | 206 | 18.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent T-L | 175 | 15.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 149 | 13.1% | -18.9% | -20.5% | -15.7% | -16.2% | | Independents |
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| -51.1% | -47.7% | -39.6% | -44.2% | | English Democrats |
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| -17.0% | -18.7% |
| | | East Lindsey Ind |
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| -31.6% | -26.5% | | Total votes | 1,140 |
| -428 | -284 | -573 | -427 |
Swing not meaningful
St Edmunsbury, Abbeygate - Conservative hold | Party | 2013 B2 votes | 2013 B2 share | since 2013 B1 | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 359 | 42.8% | -1.7% | -6.2% | -3.0% | +1.7% | +5.5% | | Green | 236 | 28.1% | -3.4% | +6.3% | +4.7% | +12.6% | +11.6% | | UKIP | 85 | 10.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Lib Dem | 83 | 9.9% | -1.9% | -5.5% | -6.7% | -7.5% | -8.6% | | Labour | 76 | 9.1% | -3.1% | -4.6% | -5.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent |
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| -26.0% | -27.7% | | Total votes | 839 |
| -425 | -1,215 | -1,072 | -1,156 | -1,038 |
Swing Green to Conservative 0.9% since May 2013 by-election but some 4% / 6% Conservative to Green since 2011 Tauton Deane, Halcon - Lib Dem hold | Party | 2013 B2 votes | 2013 B2 share | since 2013 B1 | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Lib Dem | 282 | 36.9% | -2.3% | -6.8% | -2.7% | -23.6% | -22.2% | | UKIP | 172 | 22.5% | -2.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Conservative | 165 | 22.1% | +6.2% | -8.3% | -10.4% | -6.4% | -6.8% | | Labour | 146 | 19.1% | +5.5% | -7.3% | -9.2% | +7.5% | +6.6% | | Green |
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| -6.7% |
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| | Total votes | 765 |
| -403 | -824 | -717 | -565 | -470 |
Swing negligible between Lib Dem and UKIP since May by-election but Conservative & Labour share up, Lib Dem & UKIP down
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2013 11:21:05 GMT
That's an odd looking "95 vote margin". You do wonder why people tweet stuff before even checking the basic facts  Moving elsewhere, I note the two Indies in Lincs outpolled Labour by a single vote |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 4, 2013 11:24:13 GMT
Moving elsewhere, I note the two Indies in Lincs outpolled Labour by a single vote Other way round - or my maths is faulty... |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2013 11:50:52 GMT
You are quite right, of course |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 4, 2013 11:51:11 GMT
Your maths isn't faulty. I fear The Bishop was posting stuff before checking the basic facts |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 4, 2013 11:58:50 GMT
Touche. At least I was correct about the one vote margin, though!
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Clarko
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Post by Clarko on Oct 4, 2013 12:07:18 GMT
I don't think I will use lat night alone as a GE predictor. God knows what FPTP would make of it. Whacked it through Electoral Calculus: Con: 249 Lab: 254 LD: 100 UKIP: 12 SNP/Plaid: 11 Others (incl NI parties): 24 :S |
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