Norwegian Parliamentary Election 2013

[Andrew_S]

Total: 1,595,139

Socialist Left: 63,318 = 3.97%

[Sibboleth]

There's disproportionately more of Oslo to come in. That ought to be good for them as it was their strongest county last time round.

[Andrew_S]

I get it (I think): they're actually on 3.9% at the moment but they're being forecast to end up on 4.0%.

[Sibboleth]

Though losses seem to be worse in the city than in the rest of the country: that's not so good for them.

[erlend]

A 634233 30,7 55
SV 83835 4,1 7
RØDT 22406 1,1 0
SP 121844 5,9 10
KRF 116729 5,7 10
V 106241 5,1 9
H 550850 26,7 48
FRP 333464 16,1 29
MDG 58168 2,8 1

SV back over 4%

Over 80% of votes counted. Oslo appears to be in the same order or maybe a little higher now. It really depends where in Oslo is counted whether that will help or hinder the SV,

[Andrew_S]

What's Oslo like (in political terms) in comparison to the country as a whole?

[Sibboleth]

Slightly to the right, but only slightly. H and SV are traditionally stronger there than average, Labour usually about the same as nationally.

[Sibboleth]

Oslo is very tight between the two big parties: currently 30.4% Ap, 29.9% H (with 73% counted) earlier in the evening H were slight in front. The Conservatives are comfortably ahead in Bergen and Stavanger, while Labour is comfortably ahead in Trondheim.

[erlend]

Among the results I am noticing is the Red Green weakness in the far north. 49.5% in Finmark and 46.9 in Troms (to the Centre Right's 49.9) is not good. For the record I am adding Red's vote to the government parties.

[erlend]

Drawing matters to a close we are basically clearwith the overall results. A good chunk of what is left is in Oslo. You can spot the missing precincts here valg.nrk.no/valg2013/valgresultat/fylker/oslo

The current figures are
A 816561 30,8 55
SV 107894 4,1 7
RØDT 28313 1,1 0
SP 148315 5,6 10
KRF 149695 5,6 10
V 137886 5,2 9
H 713622 26,9 48
FRP 432599 16,3 29
MDG 73574 2,8 1

which can't really change by more than a seat or so I think. Where some of the top up seats come from may vary I suspect but I haven't really touched on that here. Or a party will gain a County seat and lose a top up seat making no odds really.

If you wish to see where the top ups occur here tells you www.valgresultat.no/bs7.html the U means top up, the up arrow indicates a county seat in reach and the triangle implies a county seat at risk.

Erlend

[Andrew_S]

Thanks Erlend.

The percentage share for the winning coalition has increased slightly from 53.8% earlier on to 54.0% now.

[Sibboleth]

[andrea]

99.9% counted

Labour 30.8% (-4.5)
Conservative 26.9 (+9.7)
Progress 16.3 (-6.7)
Christian Democrats 5.6 (=)
Centre Party 5.4 (-0.8)
Liberal 5.3 (+1.4)
Socialist Left 4.1 (-2.1)
Green 2.8 (+2.4)

Seats
Labour 55 (-9)
Conservative 48 (+18)
Progress 29 (-12)
Christian Democrats 10 (=)
Centre 10 (-1)
Liberal 9 (+7)
Socialist Left 7 (-4)
Greens 1 (+1)

[Andrew_S]

Sept 10, 2013 10:32:21 GMT @trident said:

At least Labour have managed to top the poll, which is more than some of the pre-election polls were predicting.

It will be interesting to see how the Progress Party manage the transition to being in government - they have always been a protest party with no prospect of going into government. I imagine their support will crash, as often happens to parties in this position. Added to that they will suffer the curse of the junior coalition party that we have seen in many countries including our own.

They lost nearly a third of their support in this election so they may not go that much lower.

[Sibboleth]

Full size: uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/8_10_09_13_1_12_51.png

[Robert Waller]

Question now is which parties will go into government, if Progress is included.

[Andrew_S]

Is it possible to say which of the two more minor parties is more right-wing? I assume they would be the happiest to enter such a coalition.

[Sibboleth]

I suspect (though could be wrong) that none of the two centrist parties in the bourgeois block would be that happy about being in government without each other. Safety in numbers and all that.

[Andrew_S]

Sept 10, 2013 21:56:26 GMT Sibboleth said:

I suspect (though could be wrong) that none of the two centrist parties in the bourgeois block would be that happy about being in government without each other. Safety in numbers and all that.

I see, so now it would be a question of whether they formally enter the coalition or just guarantee confidence and supply.

[erlend]

The Liberal Leader Trine Skei Grande has actually just said she would only go in with the KrF, The article I read said that the KrF feel similarly although nobody attributed.