Post by East Anglian Lefty on Feb 17, 2013 8:32:33 GMT
There's a new poll in this morning's Aftenposten. Percentages were as follows (change from last month and 2009 results in brackets):
Høyre 35.2 (-4.9, 17.2)
Arbeiderpartiet 29.0 (+2.5, 35.4)
Fremskrittspartiet 12.5 (+1.8, 22.9)
Venstre 6.5 (+0.5, 3.9)
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.3 (+0.4, 5.5)
Sosialistisk Venstre 4.0 (+0.2, 6.2)
Senterpartiet 3.8 (+0.2, 6.2)
Miljøpartiet De grønne 1.8 (-, 0.3)
Rødt 1.3 (-0.1, 1.3)
Others 0.6 (-0.6, 1.1)
Høyre (H) is the main conservative party (the name means right). Arbeiderpartiet (Ap) are the Norwegian Labour Party. Fremskrittspartiet (Frp) are known in English as the Progress Party. They started out as an anti-tax, anti-bureaucracy party, into which they've spliced anti-immigration and anti-Islamisation agitation. Venstre (V, meaning left) are classical liberals, whose appeal is largely localised to Oslo. Kristelig folkeparti (KrF) are referred to as the Christian Democrats in English and have their base in southern Vestlandet. They're loosely aligned with the right, although they favour high spending on support to families. Sosialistisk Venstre (SV) are otherwise known as Socialist Left. They're probably best thought of as the Campaign Group (or possibly the old Tribune Group) if they were a separate party. Senterpartiet (Sp) are known in English as Centre. It's basically a party for farmers. Very much a pork barrel party. De grønne are the Greens, who have never really carved out a space of their own in Norwegian politics. Rødt (R) are the far-left, who occasionally sneak a seat in Oslo but are otherwise pretty marginalised above the local council level. Apparently most of the responses for others were for De Kristne (0.4%, presumably a more fundie-oriented Christian party) and Piratpartiet.m (0.2%).
This being Scandinavia, the Stortinget is elected by proportional representation and the default organisation is a left-wing coalition versus a right-wing coalition. Each fylke (county) is a constituency with a certain number of seats assigned to it, based upon population and area (in order to give more influence to rural fylker). I think seats within each fylke are distributed based on D'Hondt, but it may be some other system. Those are the 150 direct mandates, then there are 19 top-up mandates (one for each fylke) in order to get national proportionality. This top-up has a 4% threshhold, so Senterpartiet is in trouble right now.
The governing left-wing coalition is made up of Ap, SV and Sp. Ap is not doing well by historic metrics, but it's coalition partners are holding up much worse. I'm not entirely sure why this is. The government isn't notably unpopular and the Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg is highly thought of, although his administration may be a little tired. I know SV has had a few scandals, but people may also be tired of it trying to throw its weight around. Sp's demographic base is rural and shrinking, but I'm not sure if there are specific problems besides that.
There used to be a reluctance on the part of the right to participate in full coalitions with the Frp, but that's gone now. Venstre's voters probably aren't too keen on that, but Høyre's are mostly happy about that. The right-wing coalition would be H, Frp, V and KrF.
There's a big monthly fall in Høyre's support, but that should probably be ignored because I don't believe they were ever on 40% in the first place. They're still at historically high levels of support. I suspect that'd fall over the course of an election campaign when they can't be all things to all men as effectively, but it's nevertheless impressive. Fremskrittspartiet, on the other hand, are on course to take one hell of a beating, with much of their support abandoning the populist right for the traditional right. Some of that is probably the Breivik effect, I'd like to think that some of that is people realising that worrying about the Islamisation of Norway is moronic - Grønland, the most visibly minority-heavy bit of Oslo, is also the place to go for cheap booze - well, beer for under £4 if it's happy hour - and some of it is that their leader Siv Jensen is the Norwegian Sarah Palin. She prefers to be thought of as the Norwegian Thatcher, and the Palin comparison is more with Palin in early 2009 than with Palin today, but she doesn't come across as a heavyweight. Venstre took a shellacking last time, falling below the 4% threshhold, but they look to have recovered somewhat. KrF are more or less holding steady.
Aftenposten reckons that a result like this would give the right 102 mandates and the left 67. I'd expect the polls to narrow a bit, because Stoltenberg is a good campaigner and Erna Solberg (leader of Høyre) is not that well-tested, but it'd take a big turn-around for the left to stay in power. Mind you, if it stays like it is now, I could see Høyre trying to shut Frp out of the coalition, or Frp trying to get Venstre or KrF excluded.
There's been a redistribution since the last election, with Oslo gaining two seats, and Akershus (Oslo suburbs), Rogaland (Stavanger, Haugesund and points in between) and Hordaland (Bergen and hinterland) each gaining one seat. Hedmark (eastern interior), Sogn og Fjordane (fjordland north of Bergen), Nord-Trøndelag (northern and western sides of the Trondheimsfjord, not including Trondheim itself), Nordland (northern Norway, extending as far as the Lofoten Islands) and Troms (further north, including Tromsø) each lose a seat. I'm not entirely sure what the partisan impacts are, but the areas gaining seats already have a fair few whilst the areas losing them were already fairly small. So small parties are likely to be squeezed out in the shrinking fylker, whilst Rødt might find it slightly easier to get a seat in Oslo.
Høyre 35.2 (-4.9, 17.2)
Arbeiderpartiet 29.0 (+2.5, 35.4)
Fremskrittspartiet 12.5 (+1.8, 22.9)
Venstre 6.5 (+0.5, 3.9)
Kristelig Folkeparti 5.3 (+0.4, 5.5)
Sosialistisk Venstre 4.0 (+0.2, 6.2)
Senterpartiet 3.8 (+0.2, 6.2)
Miljøpartiet De grønne 1.8 (-, 0.3)
Rødt 1.3 (-0.1, 1.3)
Others 0.6 (-0.6, 1.1)
Høyre (H) is the main conservative party (the name means right). Arbeiderpartiet (Ap) are the Norwegian Labour Party. Fremskrittspartiet (Frp) are known in English as the Progress Party. They started out as an anti-tax, anti-bureaucracy party, into which they've spliced anti-immigration and anti-Islamisation agitation. Venstre (V, meaning left) are classical liberals, whose appeal is largely localised to Oslo. Kristelig folkeparti (KrF) are referred to as the Christian Democrats in English and have their base in southern Vestlandet. They're loosely aligned with the right, although they favour high spending on support to families. Sosialistisk Venstre (SV) are otherwise known as Socialist Left. They're probably best thought of as the Campaign Group (or possibly the old Tribune Group) if they were a separate party. Senterpartiet (Sp) are known in English as Centre. It's basically a party for farmers. Very much a pork barrel party. De grønne are the Greens, who have never really carved out a space of their own in Norwegian politics. Rødt (R) are the far-left, who occasionally sneak a seat in Oslo but are otherwise pretty marginalised above the local council level. Apparently most of the responses for others were for De Kristne (0.4%, presumably a more fundie-oriented Christian party) and Piratpartiet.m (0.2%).
This being Scandinavia, the Stortinget is elected by proportional representation and the default organisation is a left-wing coalition versus a right-wing coalition. Each fylke (county) is a constituency with a certain number of seats assigned to it, based upon population and area (in order to give more influence to rural fylker). I think seats within each fylke are distributed based on D'Hondt, but it may be some other system. Those are the 150 direct mandates, then there are 19 top-up mandates (one for each fylke) in order to get national proportionality. This top-up has a 4% threshhold, so Senterpartiet is in trouble right now.
The governing left-wing coalition is made up of Ap, SV and Sp. Ap is not doing well by historic metrics, but it's coalition partners are holding up much worse. I'm not entirely sure why this is. The government isn't notably unpopular and the Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg is highly thought of, although his administration may be a little tired. I know SV has had a few scandals, but people may also be tired of it trying to throw its weight around. Sp's demographic base is rural and shrinking, but I'm not sure if there are specific problems besides that.
There used to be a reluctance on the part of the right to participate in full coalitions with the Frp, but that's gone now. Venstre's voters probably aren't too keen on that, but Høyre's are mostly happy about that. The right-wing coalition would be H, Frp, V and KrF.
There's a big monthly fall in Høyre's support, but that should probably be ignored because I don't believe they were ever on 40% in the first place. They're still at historically high levels of support. I suspect that'd fall over the course of an election campaign when they can't be all things to all men as effectively, but it's nevertheless impressive. Fremskrittspartiet, on the other hand, are on course to take one hell of a beating, with much of their support abandoning the populist right for the traditional right. Some of that is probably the Breivik effect, I'd like to think that some of that is people realising that worrying about the Islamisation of Norway is moronic - Grønland, the most visibly minority-heavy bit of Oslo, is also the place to go for cheap booze - well, beer for under £4 if it's happy hour - and some of it is that their leader Siv Jensen is the Norwegian Sarah Palin. She prefers to be thought of as the Norwegian Thatcher, and the Palin comparison is more with Palin in early 2009 than with Palin today, but she doesn't come across as a heavyweight. Venstre took a shellacking last time, falling below the 4% threshhold, but they look to have recovered somewhat. KrF are more or less holding steady.
Aftenposten reckons that a result like this would give the right 102 mandates and the left 67. I'd expect the polls to narrow a bit, because Stoltenberg is a good campaigner and Erna Solberg (leader of Høyre) is not that well-tested, but it'd take a big turn-around for the left to stay in power. Mind you, if it stays like it is now, I could see Høyre trying to shut Frp out of the coalition, or Frp trying to get Venstre or KrF excluded.
There's been a redistribution since the last election, with Oslo gaining two seats, and Akershus (Oslo suburbs), Rogaland (Stavanger, Haugesund and points in between) and Hordaland (Bergen and hinterland) each gaining one seat. Hedmark (eastern interior), Sogn og Fjordane (fjordland north of Bergen), Nord-Trøndelag (northern and western sides of the Trondheimsfjord, not including Trondheim itself), Nordland (northern Norway, extending as far as the Lofoten Islands) and Troms (further north, including Tromsø) each lose a seat. I'm not entirely sure what the partisan impacts are, but the areas gaining seats already have a fair few whilst the areas losing them were already fairly small. So small parties are likely to be squeezed out in the shrinking fylker, whilst Rødt might find it slightly easier to get a seat in Oslo.
) -- if largely on the grounds that the Greens looked to be little more than a microparty.
after it... 
