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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 30, 2012 20:53:02 GMT
NORTH NORFOLK - Waterside (Liberal Democrat resigned)
2011 - Con 773/553, LD 752, UKIP 318, Lab 311/220
2007 - LD 861/679, Con 601/458, Lab 149
2003 - LD 781/563, Ind 545, Con 459/369
Denise BURKE (The Labour Party Candidate)
Anne FILGATE (Green Party)
Jeff PARKES (UK Independence Party)
Jean PARTRIDGE (Independent)
Paul RICE (Conservative Party Candidate)
Paul WILLIAMS (Liberal Democrat)
Don't know why the Lib Dems only stood one candidate here in 2011?
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Post by Callum on Apr 20, 2012 9:52:56 GMT
Lib Dems only stood one candidate in May 2011 because of a problem with the nomination paper.
There are a few interesting points with this By-Election. The Lib Dem candidate who resigned's wife is standing, but as an independent (having been a Lib Dem herself elsewhere). The Lib Dem candidate is a second choice. The Liberal, before the close of nomination put out a leaflet profiling another candidate. The conservative candidate is the county councillor for the area, who was elected as a Lib Dem, and last year defected to the conservative party. Over the course of the campaign the COnservatives have threatened the Lib Dems with legal action over alleged inaccuracies on one of the leaflets of their candidate, Paul Williams. All candidates have been putting out a leaflet, and Labour have been present across the ward every day since the vacancy was announced, so shouldn't be discounted despite needing a significant swing.
Hope this is helpful information!
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 20, 2012 10:45:24 GMT
I believe this ward will become part of Great Yarmouth according to the BCE's plans. That's not certain to happen - I know Labour wanted to head into Broadland instead, following the TTWA borders - but it makes sense for Labour to make a good effort anyway.
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Post by Callum on Apr 20, 2012 10:59:47 GMT
Yes, this would become part of the GY constituency, though there has been a lot of backlash, as most who live here want to stay in North Norfolk.
It is North Norfolk Labour party who have been doing the work though here, trying to get here first District Councillor. It's a big ask. I can foresee this being a close contest though.
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Post by kvasir on Apr 20, 2012 11:33:52 GMT
Am I correct in thinking Labour last held a seat here in 1999?
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Post by Callum on Apr 20, 2012 11:38:07 GMT
Before the boundary changed in 2003 this was 2 wards. Labour held both from 1995 - 99 and one from 99-03. Since then the vote has gone to the Lib Dems, but it is starting to come back. Labour increased its vote a lot last year, without this being a target seat. Now it is having a lot of attention, so, who knows what may happen.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,925
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 20, 2012 11:52:04 GMT
Callum, why not join us? We're a friendly bunch here, you know  |
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Post by kvasir on Apr 20, 2012 11:52:49 GMT
Before the boundary changed in 2003 this was 2 wards. Labour held both from 1995 - 99 and one from 99-03. Since then the vote has gone to the Lib Dems, but it is starting to come back. Labour increased its vote a lot last year, without this being a target seat. Now it is having a lot of attention, so, who knows what may happen. Interesting. It's always good to hear of Labour pushing back in areas ceded to the Liberal Democrats. Still Labour actually winning would be a result and a half. |
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Post by callum on Apr 20, 2012 12:01:46 GMT
Thank you, and I have now registered. Labour increased its vote by about 17% in North Norfolk last may. It would need about a further 17% to win this seat. But Labour are working very hard now in North Norfolk, I anticipate a resurgence here in the next few years.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2012 12:07:15 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 20, 2012 12:22:08 GMT
I don't think I've ever seen so many windmills on a ward map before !
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Post by kvasir on Apr 20, 2012 12:23:59 GMT
I don't think I've ever seen so many windmills on a ward map before ! We are in Norfolk... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2012 12:44:03 GMT
this looks such an interesting one, all decent votes for the main parties, a nice indy to spice it up and everyone looking to nick votes of each other.
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Post by callum on Apr 20, 2012 12:46:04 GMT
Wind pump, not wind mill to be precise.
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Post by marksenior on Apr 20, 2012 12:56:43 GMT
Thank you, and I have now registered. Labour increased its vote by about 17% in North Norfolk last may. It would need about a further 17% to win this seat. But Labour are working very hard now in North Norfolk, I anticipate a resurgence here in the next few years. Sorry but this is just false nonsense . The Labour vote increased in North Norfolk from 3.8% to 17.5% helped by contesting every seat in 2011 compared to just 10 in 2007 . Conservatives did not contest 8 seats and the LD's did not contest 2 seats . In none of the 10 seats that Labour contested in 2007 did their vote increase by 17% , the best result was in Suffield Park which saw an increase from 6.9% to 23% followed by Waxham which in the absence of a LD candidate saw an increase from 17 to 32% . Indeed in 2 of the 10 seats contested in 2007 , the Labour vote actually fell in 2011 - Priory and Roughton . In this ward Waterside the Labour vote increased from 10.1% in 2007 to 14.4% and they still finished below UKIP . There is zero chance that however much effort Labour put into this byelection that they will come anywhere close to the Conservatives or LibDems |
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Post by callum on Apr 20, 2012 13:05:29 GMT
Whilst you may be correct with your figures, This will be closer than you think. The Lib Dem who resigned, his wife is running as an independent, so will likely split the Liberal vote. The conservative candidate was a Lib Dem who defected, so there is not a lot of love for him either. You are correct that Labours chances are not great. But Lid Dem complacency here could be their downfall. We shall see.
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Post by marksenior on Apr 20, 2012 13:14:22 GMT
Whilst you may be correct with your figures, This will be closer than you think. The Lib Dem who resigned, his wife is running as an independent, so will likely split the Liberal vote. The conservative candidate was a Lib Dem who defected, so there is not a lot of love for him either. You are correct that Labours chances are not great. But Lid Dem complacency here could be their downfall. We shall see. Of course , I am correct with my figures , Neither myself or I am sure the local LD's are complacent or even confident of winning . It will be a possible 3 way fight with Conservatives favourite if the Independent polls well but Labour will not even come close . |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 24, 2012 10:27:58 GMT
B efore the boundary changed in 2003 this was 2 wards. Labour held both from 1995 - 99 and one from 99-03. Since then the vote has gone to the Lib Dems, but it is starting to come back. Labour increased its vote a lot last year, without this being a target seat. Now it is having a lot of attention, so, who knows what may happen. Which 2 wards covered the area? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Apr 24, 2012 11:12:29 GMT
Whilst you may be correct with your figures, This will be closer than you think. The Lib Dem who resigned, his wife is running as an independent, so will likely split the Liberal vote. The conservative candidate was a Lib Dem who defected, so there is not a lot of love for him either. You are correct that Labours chances are not great. But Lid Dem complacency here could be their downfall. We shall see. Welcome to the blog and what a rapid slapdown you got from Mark, so you have been duly iniated. Guesswork not allowed, even if it is educated. I think you have a point about Labour but we will see have correct after Thursday. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 24, 2012 11:13:26 GMT
Is the Labour candidate well known in the area at all?
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