Bradford West PRIZE Prediction Competition

[AdminSTB]

I think he'll save his deposit, probably by a decent margin, but he won't win. All this hype supposedly stems from one big bet on GG though, and it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't put it on himself...

If he does take a big chunk of the vote (and I'd say 15% or so is the maximum upper limit), it's going to be to the detriment of Labour and open up the possibility of a Tory gain.

[The Bishop]

A Tory win is judged by Betfair to be even less likely than Galloway doing so, for whatever that is worth.......

[Andrew_S]

Lab 46.5%
Con 24.8%
Respect 15.4%
UKIP 5.2%
LD 4.9%
Green 2.1%
Nat Dem 0.6%
Loony 0.5%

[greatkingrat]

Lab 47, Con 27, Resp 11, LD 6, UKIP 4, Grn 3, DN 1, Loony 1

[kevinlarkin]

Lab 55
Con 24
Respect 8
LD 6
UKIP 3
Green 2
Dem Nat 1.5
OMRLP 0.5

[Deleted]

Lab 42.4
Resp 21.7
Con 20.2
LD 5.5
UKIP 3.5
Green 3
Dem Nat 2
OMRLP 1.7

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Mar 28, 2012 19:48:14 GMT Robert Waller said:

Richard Heller is cricket-mad and has run his own team since 1974.
(He was also assistant to Denis Healey, and a journalist for the Mail on Sunday among other papers, as well as running a Harry Bear candidature in the Henley byelection)

A few years ago he left a completed shooting script for a film in the members' room of the London Library, with a covering note saying he had written it and thought it would make a great movie but didn't have any contacts in the film industry, so could some library member who did please pass it on?

Don't know if anything ever came of this unorthodox move.

[AdminSTB]

Mar 28, 2012 17:01:13 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Mar 28, 2012 16:50:32 GMT AdminSTB said:

I'm going to have to rule out your entry on the position that it is definitely impossible for any one candidate to win more than 100% of the vote.

Fair enough. In that case, can I make the following prediction?

RESPECT: 99.99%

Going by Twitter rumours, I think you have the closest RESPECT prediction.

[Deleted]

pity the poor people of Bradford west who will have to put up with the fool for three years until he is found out to be the fraud he is.

clearly the labour organisation there was shocking in one of the few areas to have increased labour vote in 2010, the local CLP needs an hard look at itself. got no real resonance to the national picture of course but some will pretend it has.

[Deleted]

50% turnover

[Pete Whitehead]

Whoever put 'a very large sum of money' on Galloway when he was 33/1 will be sm iling tonight. Must admit I was tempted to bet a small amount evben at 6/1 but I'd rather have lost the £5 than see that **** back in Parliament

[AdminSTB]

I had £5 on him at 20/1. That's a few takeaways paid for at least.

And I'll score these up and determine the winner after work.

[Pete Whitehead]

nice one. Will get a few fewer pasties than previously though

[Robert Waller]

I think everybody should get a copy of Richard Heller's bear book.

It'll break a calculator adding up all these faults.

[AdminSTB]

	Basic Faults	Wrong Winner	Wrong 2nd	Wrong 3rd	Total Faults
Doktorb	68.4	10	10		88.4
Kristofer Keane	75	10	10	10	105
Andyajs	81.8	10	10	10	111.8
Pimpernal	82.8	10	10	10	112.8
Ianrobo	83.8	10	10	10	113.8
Petewhitehead	87.6	10	10	10	117.6
Greatkingrat	89.8	10	10	10	119.8
Fraser	90.4	10	10	10	120.4
Kevinlarkin	96.4	10	10	10	126.4
Bill Lomax	97.8	10	10	10	127.8
Fiona Bloor	99	10	10	10	129
Robertwaller	99.4	10	10	10	129.4
Thetop	99.4	10	10	10	129.4
Tonyotim	102.2	10	10	10	132.2

Congratulations to prizewinners Doktorb and Tonyotim.

[Pete Whitehead]

Well done doktorb - the only one to get less than 100 faults, which would be the maximum under normal preditction comp rules (in other words the rest of us would all have done better if we hadn't submitted a prediction

[Pimpernal]

Mar 28, 2012 16:48:12 GMT @fionabloor said:

Mar 28, 2012 16:39:05 GMT Pimpernal said:

ooohhh - I do look forward to my bear book...

Lab 45
respect 16
UKIP 15
Tory 14
LD 5
Dem Nat 3
Loony 2

Yes, well, on those numbers, it's a distinct possibility!

well yah boo sucks to you anyway

[Deleted]

Mar 30, 2012 20:47:17 GMT Pimpernal said:

Mar 28, 2012 16:48:12 GMT @fionabloor said:

Yes, well, on those numbers, it's a distinct possibility!

well yah boo sucks to you anyway

Yes well, I am totally chastened and have eaten my considerable dollop of humble crumble.
Well done on getting fourth place.