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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 28, 2012 14:50:01 GMT
Predict the % vote share for each party in tomorrow's Bradford West by-election.
Faults will be scored by the difference between your prediction and final result. Either post your prediction in this thread or send it to me by private message. All entries must be received by 9am Thursday morning, late entries won't be accepted. Only entries from registered forum members will be accepted. In addition to the prediction competition's usual ten fault penalty for wrong winner, there will be an additional ten fault penalty for wrong second-place and wrong third-place predictions. The entry that scores the least faults will win:  The entry that scores the most faults will win:  Best of luck to everyone! |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2012 16:34:01 GMT
OK, here goes:
Labour 61, Con 17, Respect 7, UKIP 5, LDem 4, Green 3, Dem Nat 2, Loony 1.
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873 
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 28, 2012 16:39:05 GMT
ooohhh - I do look forward to my bear book...
Lab 45
respect 16
UKIP 15
Tory 14
LD 5
Dem Nat 3
Loony 2
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 28, 2012 16:40:18 GMT
I'm not sure it's entirely advisable to make the booby prize so much better than first prize.
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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 28, 2012 16:44:23 GMT
I'm not sure it's entirely advisable to make the booby prize so much better than first prize. I could always reverse the two.  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2012 16:48:12 GMT
ooohhh - I do look forward to my bear book... Lab 45 respect 16 UKIP 15 Tory 14 LD 5 Dem Nat 3 Loony 2 Yes, well, on those numbers, it's a distinct possibility! |
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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 28, 2012 16:50:32 GMT
Labour 8 million %, Conservative 9 million % LD 10 million %, Respect 11million % UKIP 12 million % Dem nat 13 million % Loony 20 million%, allowing for wrong inner points, and not adding up to 100% that makes the book mine unless someone makes a silly prediction. I'm going to have to rule out your entry on the position that it is definitely impossible for any one candidate to win more than 100% of the vote.  |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Mar 28, 2012 16:57:25 GMT
I'd guess at something like: Lab 54.3 Con 24.6 LD 6.8 Respect 4.8 UKIP 4.5 Green 2.7 Dem Nat 1.6 OMRLP 0.7 In numerical terms, I'd guess a majority of around 8000. (copied from the other thread) |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Mar 28, 2012 17:01:13 GMT
I'm going to have to rule out your entry on the position that it is definitely impossible for any one candidate to win more than 100% of the vote. Fair enough. In that case, can I make the following prediction? Labour: 99.99% Conservative: 99.99% RESPECT: 99.99% Lib Dems: 99.99% Green: 99.99% UKIP: 99.99% Dem Nat: 99.99% Loony: 99.99% |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 28, 2012 17:01:35 GMT
Lab 53.3%
Con 21.5%
Resp 12.1%
LD 5.2%
UKIP 3.9%
Grn 1.8%
DN 1.7%
OMRLP 0.5%
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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 28, 2012 17:13:50 GMT
I'm going to have to rule out your entry on the position that it is definitely impossible for any one candidate to win more than 100% of the vote. Fair enough. In that case, can I make the following prediction? Labour: 99.99% Conservative: 99.99% RESPECT: 99.99% Lib Dems: 99.99% Green: 99.99% UKIP: 99.99% Dem Nat: 99.99% Loony: 99.99% Yes, but it does mean in any future contests I'll have the consolation prize for second place instead of last.  |
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 28, 2012 17:21:47 GMT
I'm going to have to rule out your entry on the position that it is definitely impossible for any one candidate to win more than 100% of the vote. Fair enough. In that case, can I make the following prediction? Labour: 99.99% Conservative: 99.99% RESPECT: 99.99% Lib Dems: 99.99% Green: 99.99% UKIP: 99.99% Dem Nat: 99.99% Loony: 99.99% on the possibilty precedent I'd suggest that it is equally impossible for a combo of all the candidates to get significantly above 100%... |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2012 17:33:02 GMT
If I may make a proper prediction (though accuracy not guaranteed):
Labour 48
Conservative 25
LDem 8
Respect 7
UKIP 5
Green 4
Loony 2
Dem Nat 1
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Pimpernal
Forum Regular
A left-wing agenda within a right-wing framework...
Posts: 2,873
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Post by Pimpernal on Mar 28, 2012 17:43:04 GMT
I would like to point out that mine is a proper prediction and you will all eat humble crumble on friday... hopefully...  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2012 17:43:08 GMT
]Lab 48.5%
Con 20 %
Resp 14%
LD 8%
UKIP 5%
Grn 2.1%
DN 2%
OMRLP 0.4%
I think this respect stuff could have an effect but Labour win
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 28, 2012 18:13:16 GMT
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Post by AdminSTB on Mar 28, 2012 18:17:06 GMT
It's a cute and fun book, although the focus on cricket seems totally bizarre from a Scottish perspective.  |
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Post by Robert Waller on Mar 28, 2012 19:48:14 GMT
Richard Heller is cricket-mad and has run his own team since 1974. (He was also assistant to Denis Healey, and a journalist for the Mail on Sunday among other papers, as well as running a Harry Bear candidature in the Henley byelection) And yes, the Miliband in these averages for that team was .... ... David! londonerratics.com/averages.html |
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
Posts: 945
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Post by thetop on Mar 28, 2012 19:52:50 GMT
Lab 60%
Con 20%
Res 7%
Lib 7%
UKIP 3%
Grn 2%
Nat .5%
MRLP .5%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Mar 28, 2012 20:17:17 GMT
so none of us believe the respect hype then ?
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