maxque
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Post by maxque on Dec 12, 2013 5:26:39 GMT
Not surprising. They must rush to pass all laws than CVP opposes and than all 3 government parties with, before another 30 years strecht of CVP in office (they were in power from 1945 to 1974 (29 years) and from 1979 to 2013 (34 years)).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 13, 2018 1:03:00 GMT
Will be this SunDay.
The latest poll (from June) put CVP at 39% - enough with nationalist ADR (8%) to end the present coalition. (CVP&ADR was ruled out totally by CVP, of course...)
Media in Germany&Austria reported 2 issues during the campaigns (both related with immigration):
- traffic
- language: Letzebürgerisch - which has since 1945 nothing to do with German, of course (only ignorants classifying it a MoselFranconian dialect...) - isn't learnt&spoken&understood by many immigrants and gets more and more replaced by French (as the nationalists claim)
Nearly all parties (especially PM Bettel's liberal DP) had to deal in the campaigns with the latter theme, but a surge for ADR isn't impossible.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 14, 2018 16:40:00 GMT
2/3 partly, 1/3 totally counted, the StatisticalOffice are projecting as final OutCome:
28.71 CSV (so losses instead of gains!)
17.25 DP (second; but the coalition lost perhaps its majority)
15.27 GREENS (ahead of Labour?!)
15.02 LSAP (from 2nd to 4th place?)
09.45 ADR
07.61 Pirates (strong improvement)
05.05 LEFT
01.23 KPL (yes, they are still alive!)
00.22 Democrats
00.19 Conservatives (ADR-splinter)
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Oct 14, 2018 18:07:05 GMT
Bettel bring in the Greens for a majority? No obvious Coalition otherwise...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 14, 2018 19:24:52 GMT
Bettel bring in the Greens for a majority? No obvious Coalition otherwise... Yes, that's not unlikely. Presently (89% done) CSV has 21 seats and could form a coalition with DP (12) or the GREENS (10). The latter is - according to an OpinionPoll published at de.wikipedia, i think - liked by many. (I guess, that CSV are led by some kind of weird left exCatholic ruling out ADR totally and dreaming of the GREENS as bride.) |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 14, 2018 21:38:48 GMT
Final result:
28.31% = 21 CSV
16.91% = 12 DP
17.60% = 10 LSAP
15.12% = 09 GREENS
08.28% = 04 ADR
06.45% = 02 PIRATES
05.48% = 02 LEFT
The 3 governing parties lost only 1 seat and gained %.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Oct 14, 2018 21:51:57 GMT
Wow - leaves them with a majority of 1! Squeaky bum!
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 14, 2018 22:07:42 GMT
Wow - leaves them with a majority of 1! Squeaky bum! 2. 31-29 |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2018 2:54:43 GMT
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 15, 2018 10:50:18 GMT
A particular sort of social democracy, yes. It is going to have to re-emerge in most of the continent in a new form, almost certainly one that more emphasises class again.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 15, 2018 10:57:13 GMT
A particular sort of social democracy, yes. It is going to have to re-emerge in most of the continent in a new form, almost certainly one that more emphasises class again. Yeah but the working classes are increasingly voting for the right. Whether it be the FN’s new incarnation, the AFD, Lega, FPÖ and so on. So why would Socialists emphasise class when the new dividing line is seemingly cultural? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 15, 2018 11:06:01 GMT
A particular sort of social democracy, yes. It is going to have to re-emerge in most of the continent in a new form, almost certainly one that more emphasises class again. Yeah but the working classes are increasingly voting for the right To the extent that is the case (and it is often exaggerated) a significant reason is that the "third way" form of social democracy - with its emphasis on stuff like identity politics and "political correctness" - has alienated them. Meanwhile these parties offer little material incentive for their support. There is also the question of what is actually "working class" these days, but lets not get into that right now  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2018 11:39:40 GMT
Wow - leaves them with a majority of 1! Squeaky bum! Which I understand is quite considerably better than pre-election predictions. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Oct 15, 2018 12:31:44 GMT
Yeah but the working classes are increasingly voting for the right To the extent that is the case (and it is often exaggerated) a significant reason is that the "third way" form of social democracy - with its emphasis on stuff like identity politics and "political correctness" - has alienated them. Meanwhile these parties offer little material incentive for their support.There is also the question of what is actually "working class" these days, but lets not get into that right now I absolutely agree with that. I think it’s a key point. |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 15, 2018 13:38:01 GMT
To the extent that is the case (and it is often exaggerated) a significant reason is that the "third way" form of social democracy - with its emphasis on stuff like identity politics and "political correctness" - has alienated them. Meanwhile these parties offer little material incentive for their support.There is also the question of what is actually "working class" these days, but lets not get into that right now I absolutely agree with that. I think it’s a key point. Though class based politics is identity politics writ large. I know the point that is trying to be made but the two dominant parties in a essentially polarised political environment have always played identity politics to a greater sense or less, the difference at the moment is that that course of action is eating itself (which in our interconnected world was always likely to happen). |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 15, 2018 14:35:01 GMT
Bettel bring in the Greens for a majority? No obvious Coalition otherwise... Yes, that's not unlikely. Presently (89% done) CSV has 21 seats and could form a coalition with DP (12) or the GREENS (10). The latter is - according to an OpinionPoll published at de.wikipedia, i think - liked by many. (I guess, that CSV are led by some kind of weird left exCatholic ruling out ADR totally and dreaming of the GREENS as bride.) As a Catholic, I find this a bizarre conclusion. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2018 16:05:21 GMT
Yes, that's not unlikely. Presently (89% done) CSV has 21 seats and could form a coalition with DP (12) or the GREENS (10). The latter is - according to an OpinionPoll published at de.wikipedia, i think - liked by many. (I guess, that CSV are led by some kind of weird left exCatholic ruling out ADR totally and dreaming of the GREENS as bride.) As a Catholic, I find this a bizarre conclusion. Why? CSV had a strong tradition of "Christian" socialism and the CSV-leader had ruled out a coalition with ADR before the election, so the GREENS are probably sexy for him/her, what is very usual on the continent. A proponent of CSV's rightliberal BigBusiness-wing or a nonChristian CSV-conservative would prefer DP or ADR. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2018 16:11:28 GMT
A particular sort of social democracy, yes. It is going to have to re-emerge in most of the continent in a new form, almost certainly one that more emphasises class again. Summa summarum the left hasn't been decreasing electorally. But the SDs (will) have lost their lead within the left camp with the rise of GREENS and (hard) LEFTies. In future their base will be non-nationalistic/religious/racistic immigrants and (mostly female) private/public bureaucrats. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 15, 2018 16:18:19 GMT
As a Catholic, I find this a bizarre conclusion. Why? CSV had a strong tradition of "Christian" socialism and the CSV-leader had ruled out a coalition with ADR before the election, so the GREENS are probably sexy for him/her, what is very usual on the continent. A proponent of CSV's rightliberal BigBusiness-wing or a nonChristian CSV-conservative would prefer DP or ADR. Why would the big business wing ally with a party which endorsed degrowth (the ADR)? Greens were prefered to DP because of their strenght. They were sure the have less seats than DP, so CSV would have more power (and ministers) in a CSV-Green coalition (than a CSV-DP one. |
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 15, 2018 16:47:34 GMT
Why? CSV had a strong tradition of "Christian" socialism and the CSV-leader had ruled out a coalition with ADR before the election, so the GREENS are probably sexy for him/her, what is very usual on the continent. A proponent of CSV's rightliberal BigBusiness-wing or a nonChristian CSV-conservative would prefer DP or ADR. Why would the big business wing ally with a party which endorsed degrowth (the ADR)? Greens were prefered to DP because of their strenght. They were sure the have less seats than DP, so CSV would have more power (and ministers) in a CSV-Green coalition (than a CSV-DP one. I wrote "BigBusiness ... or ... conservative ... prefer DP or ADR": So BigBusiness preferring DP, conservatives ADR. Perhaps the smallness of the GREENS was a factor for CSV - i don't know; but DP would have been an easier partner, cheaper concerning policies because of the small differences. Usually the GREENS are loved as CoalitionPartners by left exChristians or others, who desperately try to be accepted by the bourgeois society as being incredibly "modern" and "progressive". Believe me, I have experience with that (my region - SalzburgLand - is ruled by ÖVP&GREENS&NEOS). |
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