piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 909
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Post by piperdave on Jul 5, 2013 19:36:15 GMT
I was doing quite well with a series of Scotland proposals on a c.71,000 electorate, until I came to the last constituency which was Argyll, Bute and Pollok.
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Post by afleitch on Jul 5, 2013 20:58:28 GMT
It would be interesting Pete if you added Martin Baxter's calculations for ward data in 2010 to the app. While they have flaws as all hypotheticals do it would allow you to see partisan effects.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,517
Member is Online
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Post by Khunanup on Jul 5, 2013 22:29:06 GMT
Yes. I have now submitted the data request data.gov.uk/data-requests/electorate-statistics-at-ward-levelI have a few ideas for the next release of Plan Builder. Comments and suggestions welcome. - User defined number of constituencies and allowed variance
- Create a custom region by adding/removing LAs, e.g add N Lincs and NE Lincs to East Midlands
I've just realised that with these facilities everyone else will be doing there own lander parliaments and I'll lose my USP Never Pete! I am awaiting the post 2013 updates though...
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 6, 2013 10:47:02 GMT
Indeed. I reminded myself of that when I posted that. Another five English regions to do ...
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2014 17:40:45 GMT
With a UK electorate of 46,353,900 and 650 seats, the quota would be 71,314. 5% either side of that is 67,748 to 74,880. In 2012 there were 204 seats above 74,880 and 189 seats below 67,748 giving a total of 393 seats. As we enter December 2014, what's the current stats of this kind plstathnx? (Or, asked otherwise, how do I find them?)
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2014 17:41:40 GMT
Maybe I've just answered my own question.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 29, 2014 18:02:17 GMT
I'd be interested to know the latest figures, although it's bloody difficult sometimes to find the right page on the ONS website.
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Post by kevinlarkin on Nov 29, 2014 18:19:04 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 29, 2014 18:27:47 GMT
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,620
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Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 29, 2014 22:18:56 GMT
With a UK electorate of 46,353,900 and 650 seats, the quota would be 71,314. 5% either side of that is 67,748 to 74,880. In 2012 there were 204 seats above 74,880 and 189 seats below 67,748 giving a total of 393 seats. As we enter December 2014, what's the current stats of this kind plstathnx? (Or, asked otherwise, how do I find them?) Ironically, when the 2010 boundaries were implemented in 2004 using the 2000 electorate, only about 40 or so seats were outside 10%. The only significant flaw in the current Parliamentary review process is the age of the data that participants are forced to use. Local reviews use the electorate forecast for the first few years or so after they will first be used (eg Sheffield 2013/14 review for 2016 elections is using 2020 forecast).
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piperdave
SNP
Dalkeith; Midlothian/North & Musselburgh
Posts: 909
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Post by piperdave on Nov 30, 2014 15:15:31 GMT
Thanks for flagging that doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️. An interesting set of exchanges there, and disappointing that an MP doesn't know how many MLAs are elected per constituency. Maybe that's the election geek in me expecting too much, but I suspect they might fail a citizenship test! As J.G.Harston noted above, I was surprised that the committee didn't ask about what alternative methods for boundary reviews are already undertaken by the local boundary commissions, most of which have a shared secretariat with the parliamentary commissions. The Scottish local commission also has to consider the likely electorate at the mid-point of the period in which the new boundaries are in force. A review that they undertook in 2010 identified very few areas where there were major imbalances so it worked very well at the first time of asking. Hopefully councils and the commission can do an even better job of forecasting this time around. As Tony Bellringer was saying, a review in England was taking up to 6 years under the old rules and was incredibly tight to do in two and a half under the zombie review rules. Instead of a move to mid-cycle forecasting, you could also allow a final stage where the constituencies are then compared against the most recent registration stats and then consider whether any alterations should be made to minimise that before finalising the review. That would at least give greater parity closer to the first election when the boundaries are used. For those who listened to the evidence session but haven't read the Smith Commission report yet, the Scottish Parliament will have power over its own electoral system, subject to a 'super-majority' of two-thirds of the Parliament agreeing to any changes. The Parliamentary Boundary Commission will report to the Scottish Parliament for issues to do with its boundaries, but remains reporting to Westminster for those boundaries. From what I can read into the text, it will remain a UK Government body. The report also recommended the Scottish Parliament be able to extend the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds if it chooses. I think this means it is likely that the legislation will allow Holyrood to vary the lower age of the franchise for Scottish local and Scottish Parliament elections to a lower limit of 16 but probably not be able to touch anything to do with any other aspect of the local government franchise. It won't have any ability to vary the 'parliamentary' franchise for UK and European elections.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 3, 2015 11:36:20 GMT
Using www.ons.gov.uk/ons/publications/re-reference-tables.html?edition=tcm%3A77-335135 with a 12.5% variance from quota (ranging from 63,363 to 81,466) 1. Morecambe and Lunesdale 2. Lancaster and Wyre 3. Fleetwood 4. Blackpool 5. South Fylde 6. Preston North and Poulton 7. Ribble Valley 8. Preston 9. South Ribble 10. Chorley 11. West Lancashire 12. Burnley 13. Pendle 14. Hyndburn 15. Blackburn 16. Rossendale and Darwen
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 22, 2016 11:21:01 GMT
Will you update your site with new numbers if/when they become available? Yes. I have now submitted the data request data.gov.uk/data-requests/electorate-statistics-at-ward-levelI have a few ideas for the next release of Plan Builder. Comments and suggestions welcome. - User defined number of constituencies and allowed variance
- Import/Export direct to file
- Create a custom region by adding/removing LAs, e.g add N Lincs and NE Lincs to East Midlands
- Split wards by i) civil parish / community ii) drawing a line
- Constituency labels
- Some kind of screenshot / save as image
- Demographic data
- Notional results (maybe)
- Generate a 4/5 colour map
Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase, Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase do this, Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase kevinlarkin
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Post by robert1 on Aug 22, 2016 12:32:39 GMT
It might also be worth noting, for all contributors, that the English Boundary Commission has made clear that it will be starting afresh, and not using the aborted review as the basis for its work, when the initial proposals are published next month. (My precis of their phraseology)
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Post by AustralianSwingVoter on Aug 24, 2016 0:36:17 GMT
Yes. I have now submitted the data request data.gov.uk/data-requests/electorate-statistics-at-ward-levelI have a few ideas for the next release of Plan Builder. Comments and suggestions welcome. - User defined number of constituencies and allowed variance
- Import/Export direct to file
- Create a custom region by adding/removing LAs, e.g add N Lincs and NE Lincs to East Midlands
- Split wards by i) civil parish / community ii) drawing a line
- Constituency labels
- Some kind of screenshot / save as image
- Demographic data
- Notional results (maybe)
- Generate a 4/5 colour map
Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase, Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase do this, Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaase kevinlarkin You could put these features into Deluxe Boundary Assistant because I personally would pay any (reasonable) price for these features
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,759
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 25, 2016 15:38:09 GMT
Dates for publications of initial recommendations: Northern Ireland September 6th England and Wales September 13th No date set for Scotland yet
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Post by greatkingrat on Aug 25, 2016 20:43:37 GMT
Don't know why they have to synchronise dates with each other. Would be better to stagger them.
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Post by minionofmidas on Aug 26, 2016 16:46:45 GMT
Dates for publications of initial recommendations: Northern Ireland September 6th England and Wales September 13th No date set for Scotland yet Cool, I stop by here out of pure boredom and immediately see this. Visit already worth the while!
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,759
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Aug 29, 2016 16:12:31 GMT
Dates for publications of initial recommendations: Northern Ireland September 6th England and Wales September 13th No date set for Scotland yet Cool, I stop by here out of pure boredom and immediately see this. Visit already worth the while! Scotland tweeted today that they expect to publish their report in October (probably due to being so late with their data dump). Also has anyone noticed that these boundary reviews have been ignored by the media until today (when a Conservative peer "exclusively reported" the obvious, that most seats under quota are Labour seats).
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,380
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Post by Crimson King on Aug 29, 2016 16:49:56 GMT
Rubbish article that I saw (I'm sure the underlying research was much better) Implying that all the Conservative seats would be unchanged because they were up to quota and lots of Labour seats would 'dissapear'
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