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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2014 6:34:06 GMT
Croydon ………… 243,641 ………… 6.91 ………… 7
7 instead of 6! That would be interesting. The big ward sizes would make it awkward. The ward sizes are certainly tricky to work with. I've done my best to get 7 (I will leave the names to you John )
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 19, 2014 10:10:07 GMT
Coventry Coventry Stoke - Dave Nellist has a reasonable chance of taking second place (after Labour). He might have been able to win it back in 2001. Coventry Earlsdon - definitely Tory in a good year for them, possibly competitive even in a bad one. Coventry South - fairly well balanced between Labour and Tory. Coventry North-West- the Tories might be competitive in a good year. Coventry North-East (may be able to drop the East from the name) and Coventry Eastern are solid Labour.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 19, 2014 10:42:20 GMT
7 instead of 6! That would be interesting. The big ward sizes would make it awkward. The ward sizes are certainly tricky to work with. I've done my best to get 7 (I will leave the names to you John ) It would make more sense to put West Thornton in the Thornton Heath seat, Waddon in the West Croydon (or Croydon Central) seat, Addiscombe with Woodside and Ashburton, Shirley with Addington and Selsdon with South Croydon
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Post by psephos on Jan 19, 2014 15:50:25 GMT
When I saw Hammersmith and Fulham could fit into three seats, I had to give it a go. I have no idea on names (Hammersmith North, Hammersmith Central, Chelsea and Fulham?) Barons COurt of course. Where does "Chelsea and Fulham" come into it?
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Post by mattb on Jan 19, 2014 16:08:17 GMT
Then Psephos pointed out that if the seat distribution were recalculated Hertfordshire would qualify for 23 seats which would mean a quota of 35,301. All of numbers 12 to 22 are close to that quota so I've left them alone while the oversized seats are in St Albans, Watford and Hemel Hempstead. I decided to split St Albans into two seats, both including some hinterland and with knock on changes as follows: 9. St Albans West 31,798 - This takes the western half of the St Albans seat from above and adds the St Stephen and Park Street wards formerly in Bushey & Radlett. These help make this ever so slightly the better seat for the Tories but Labour would still have won in 1997 and 2001. It would vote pretty much in line with the current St Albans constituency overall 10. St Albans East 35,492 - The Eastern half of St Albans city plus London Colney from Elstree, Colney Heath from Hatfield and Marshalswick North from Harpenden. Slightly stronger for the LDs and this would have been close in 2010 ( a majority of about 600, ironically thanks to the inclusion of London Colney which is the most downmarket part of the seat) On these boundaries the 2010 result would be 22 Conervative 1 LD (but possibly 23 Conservatives) What happens if you divide St Albans North & South instead of East & West? (swap London Colney & Cunningham for St Peters & Batchwood)
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 19, 2014 16:40:25 GMT
Solihull
I've done two versions of this authority because the ward sizes are all wrong to create either four constituencies or five constituencies without ward-splitting or cross-boundary constituencies, and as the quota is 4.56 it's not far off being halfway between the two sizes . With both version you get a disparity of about 10,000 electors between the biggest and smallest seats in this area (which, at this size of seat, is a very significant disparity). Five seatsFour seats
As for the individual constituencies Chelmsley Wood & Castle Bromwich would have been historically Labour, but given that the Greens have got over 50% in two of the four wards at the last two local elections, it would probably be our best chance at a seat in the West Midlands. Ward-splitting for five constituencies would require losing some of this to Meriden Gap. Meriden Gap on either boundary would be solidly Conservative. Ward-splitting for four constituencies would require losing some of this to Chelmsley Wood & Castle Bromwich and adding parts from Solihull. Solihull either way, this is better for the Lib Dems right now than the current Solihull constituency. The five-constituency version is the best for them. Ward-splitting on either model would mean this constituency lost parts. Shirley would be Conservative in either set of constituencies. Whilst the Lib Dems, the Greens, and Labour have managed to win council seats here in the past, the area is predominantly, and by default, Conservative. Dorridge & South Solihull is basically the left-over bits in the five-seat version, and would be a Conservative seat.
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Post by psephos on Jan 19, 2014 16:43:43 GMT
This may not meet with approval: 1 City of London & Westminster South 36268 2 Paddington North & North Kensington 37115 3 Kensington 33272 4 Chelsea 36630 5 Paddington South & Hyde Park 36798 6 St Marylebone & Oxford Street 37405
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Post by psephos on Jan 19, 2014 16:57:01 GMT
1 Islington North 33213 2 Islington East 35564 3 Islington South West 34329 4 Islington South East & Finsbury 33284 5 Shoreditch 34732 6 Stoke Newington 36266 7 Hackney North 36800 8 Hackney Central 40760 Doing inner London is very mcuh like the abandoned ILEA single-member plan.
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Post by psephos on Jan 19, 2014 17:11:26 GMT
Lewisham West 38770 Catford 36910 Lewisham South 28326 Lewisham East 29016 Deptford 38846 Poplar South 40730 Bethnal Green 41533 Stepney 37185 Bow & Bromley 35052
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 19, 2014 17:58:27 GMT
EAL said he'd done Warwickshire, but since he hasn't posted it, here's my version. The biggest problem is working out which bits of Nuneaton & Rugby to cut out into neighbouring seats, and if I was doing it for real, I'd be doing a lot more thinking about that than I actually did. On the individual constituencies (based on very little thought and analysis): North Warwickshire 35,171 (brown bit at the top) at the moment it's probably a Labour seat, but it could go either way. Atherstone & Nuneaton North 33,890 (blue bit at the top) is more Labour than North Warwickshire, containing mostly (but not entirely) Labour bits of both North Warwickshire and Nuneaton. Nuneaton 33,732 (green bit at the top) Naturally more Labour, but could turn Tory in a good year. Bedworth 36,039 (purple bit at the top) Bedworth itself is pretty solidly Labour, but the constituency also includes some Tory parts of North Warwickshire. You would expect the Labour vote to dominate, though. East Warwickshire 33,520 (tan bit on the right) is clearly a Tory area. Rugby 36,552 (blue bit on the right) I don't know Rugby very well, but this contains most of the town itself, making it more Labour than the surrounding area. Kenilworth 34,978 (bluey-green bit in the middle) is solidly Tory. Royal Leamington Spa 32,578 (purple bit in the middle) is one of the more interesting seats here. In terms of the council, the north tends to vote Lib Dem, and the south Labour (well, until 2013 - where we took one of the two southern County Council seats). In terms of Parliament, the existing Warwick & Leamington constituency is something of a marginal, and Leamington is both the larger half and the more Labour-leaning of the two towns. So it's not impossible that this could transform into be a Lib-Lab contest. Warwick 33,700 (brown bit in the middle) would be Conservative. Whilst Labour took two of the three County Council seats in Warwick proper in 2013, the addition of rural wars should ensure that the Tories retain the seat, barring a UKIP surge. West Warwickshire 32,076 (green bit on the left) is a solidly Conservative rural area. Stratford-Upon-Avon 33,448 (blue bit at the bottom) is, again, a Conservative stronghold. Southam & Shipston-on-Stour 32,238 (red bit at the bottom) is another strongly Conservative area.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 19, 2014 19:24:35 GMT
Then Psephos pointed out that if the seat distribution were recalculated Hertfordshire would qualify for 23 seats which would mean a quota of 35,301. All of numbers 12 to 22 are close to that quota so I've left them alone while the oversized seats are in St Albans, Watford and Hemel Hempstead. I decided to split St Albans into two seats, both including some hinterland and with knock on changes as follows: 9. St Albans West 31,798 - This takes the western half of the St Albans seat from above and adds the St Stephen and Park Street wards formerly in Bushey & Radlett. These help make this ever so slightly the better seat for the Tories but Labour would still have won in 1997 and 2001. It would vote pretty much in line with the current St Albans constituency overall 10. St Albans East 35,492 - The Eastern half of St Albans city plus London Colney from Elstree, Colney Heath from Hatfield and Marshalswick North from Harpenden. Slightly stronger for the LDs and this would have been close in 2010 ( a majority of about 600, ironically thanks to the inclusion of London Colney which is the most downmarket part of the seat) On these boundaries the 2010 result would be 22 Conervative 1 LD (but possibly 23 Conservatives) What happens if you divide St Albans North & South instead of East & West? (swap London Colney & Cunningham for St Peters & Batchwood) Probably St Albans North would have been LD by about 250 - basically translates a 2% Tory lead in East into a 1% LD lead while a 7% Tory lead in West becomes a 10% lead in South. So doesn't make a huge difference but probably enough to change the winner in one of the seats in 2010. I did consider this option initially, but decided that the railway line forms a pretty logical boundary on the south side. Cunningham ward doesn't link well with neighbouring Sopwell at all for this reason but it is closely tied in with neighbouring parts of Ashley and Colney Heath
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Post by Deleted on Jan 19, 2014 21:45:34 GMT
For Westminster purposes... Fife Dunfermline West & Kincardine (orange) 32,696 - safe Labour Dunfermline East (light blue) 32,828 - Labour/LibDem marginal in 2010 if the 2006 by-election had taken place here. Otherwise safe Labour. Cowdenbeath, Lochore & Lochgelly (green) 30,859 - very safe Labour (and probably Brown's seat). A local old-school far-left candidate might narrowly beat the SNP and come a very distant second. Kirkcadly West & Inverkeithing (pink) 36,148 - Labour, though this would actually be a fairly genteel seat, so the SNP might want to target it seriously. Kirkcaldy East & Methil (dark blue) 36,769 - safe Labour, SNP second. Glenrothes (yellow) 38,897 - safe Labour, SNP second (though with an awful lot of split-ticketing). St Andrews & East Neuk (turquoise) 38,404 - safe LibDem (Ming's seat), Tories a distant second in 2010. Edenside (red) 34,009 - safe LibDem, Tories a distant second in 2010, though perhaps with more SNP potential than in the previous seat.
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 18, 2014 18:10:25 GMT
One of the things I don't think we've done in this thread is the Lib Dem proposal in 2010 for 500 MPs elected under STV. Obviously how this looks depends on how many MPs you'd put per seat. I think anything under three is ridiculous, but you'd need about eight to make things really proportional. Per region, this gives us: East Mids 37 MPs (quota per MP: 90,840) Eastern 47 MPs (quota per MP: 91,079) London 57 MPs (quota per MP: 92,402) North East 22 MPs (quota per MP: 89,602) North West 57 MPs (quota per MP: 92,158) Scotland 42 MPs (quota per MP: 92,223.5) South East 69 MPs (quota per MP: 91,354) South West 44 MPs (quota per MP: 91,874) Wales 25 MPs (quota per MP: 91,264) West Mids 45 MPs (quota per MP: 91,459) Yorkshire & the Humber 42 MPs (quota per MP: 91,641) Northern Ireland 13 MPs (quota per MP: 91,587) Obviously, you mulitiply the quota per MP by the number of MPs to get the quota for each seat. I'm going to go with a 10% variance. Note: London's quota is just over 57.5, and the North East's is also just over 21.5, but in order to keep the number of seats at exactly 500, I had to round one of them down, and London had a slightly lower remainder. Northern Ireland, on the other hand, is almost exactly on quota. (it's 13.001 to 3 decimal places). If you're using boundary assistant, it treats the Isle of Wight as outside the South East. Its electorate is 110,924, which is far too small for it to stand alone in this system. Here's one possibility for Coventry and Warwickshire. Coventry and North Warwickshire is a four-seat constituency. South and East Warwickshire is an undersized 3-seat constituency, which could easily (and logically) expand into the Meriden gap to fill out the numbers (but doing so means I either have to incorporate Solihull into these two constituencies, or start working out Birmingham as well). I expect the northern seat would produce 2 Labour, 1 Tory, and 1 uncertain. The southern one would probably be 1 Tory, 1 Labour, and 1 up for grabs (possibly a Tory/Lib Dem contest)
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Post by greenchristian on Mar 18, 2014 21:36:08 GMT
Had a bit more time to play around with this. So here's Warwickshire, Coventry, Solihull, and Birmingham. Coventry and North Warwickshire is the same as before (consisting of Coventry, North Warwickshire, and Nuneaton & Bedworth councils). 4 seats (2 Lab, 1 Con, 1 ) South & East Warwickshire with Meriden consists of the rest of Warwickshire plus some of the rural wards from Solihull. 3 seats (1 Con, 1 Lab, 1 Con/LD) North Birmingham, West Birmingham, South Birmingham & Solihull are fairly arbitrary because I don't know Birmingham's geography that well. All of them are three-seat constituencies. If we want a more proportional system, then we can easily merge the two Warwickshire seats into a 7-seat constituency and the three Birmingham ones into a 9-seat one. This leaves 29 seats for the rest of the West Mids region (Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Shropshire, Staffordshire, and the Black Country).
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2014 3:00:39 GMT
Assuming that Orkney & Shetland and Na h-Eileanan an Iar continue to elect their own MPs, that would I believe actually give us 40 MPs for the rest of Scotland with a quota of 95,451. Following broadly the same methodology as greenchristian above. Edinburgh & Midlothian form a nice four seat constituency as Edinburgh is too big on its own for three. In terms of 2010, we'd probably have been looking at 2 Lab, 2 LD thanks to SNP and Green transfers, but now I suspect that 2 Lab, 1 SNP, 1 Con would be more likely. East Lothian, Borders & Galloway is absolutely hideous, but there'll inevitably be some hideous constituencies in Scotland under this system. Three members: 1 Lab, 1 Con, 1 LD. West Lothian, Falkirk & Stirling is not quite as bad as it looks when you consider that much of the Stirling Council region is sparsely populated. Three members: 2 Lab, 1 SNP. Lanarkshire, composed entirely of North Lanarkshire & South Lanarkshire. Five members: 3 Lab, 2 SNP. Glasgow North & Dunbartonshire. Includes all Glasgow wards north of the Clyde plus Southside Central, Pollokshields and Govan, and the whole of East Dunbartonshire and West Dunbartonshire. Five members: 3 Lab, 1 LD, 1 SNP in 2010, but probably not now. Glasgow South & Renfrewshire. Includes the whole of Renfrewshire, East Renfewshire and Inverclyde plus Craigton, Greater Pollok, Newlands/Auldburn, Langside and Linn from Glasgow. Four members: 3 Lab, 1 SNP/Con/LD (again, in 2010). Ayrshire & Arran. Three members: 2 Lab, 1 SNP. Fife. Three members: 2 Lab, 1 LD in 2010, though the LD seat would be more likely to go SNP today. Tayside & Ochil. Includes Carnousite and Monifieth & Sidlaw from Angus in addition to the whole of Dundee, Perth & Kinross and Clackmannanshire. Three members: 2 SNP, 1 Lab or possibly 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 Con. Aberdeenshire & Angus. The whole of Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire plus the rest of Angus. Four members: 1 SNP, 1 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Con. Highlands. The whole of the Highland Council plus Argyll & Bute and Moray. Three members: 1 LD, 1 SNP, 1 Lab. Overall, including the islands, I reckon that 2010 would have given us something like 21 Lab, 10 SNP, 9 LD, 2 Con.
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2014 5:10:48 GMT
Loving this. No laptop so can't join in, unfortunately
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Clarko
Conservative & Unionist
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Post by Clarko on Mar 21, 2014 13:51:55 GMT
This speaks to my inner geek! North West: 1 Cumbria Quota: 52962
2 Con 1 Lab 1 LD 2 Lancashire North Quota: 52210
3 Con 2 Lab 1 LD 3 Lancashire South Quota: 49720
2 Con 3 Lab 1 LD 4 Merseyside North Quota: 45519 1 Con 2 Lab 1 LD 5 Merseyside South Quota: 46133 0 Con 3 Lab 1 LD 6 Cheshire West & Wirral Quota: 52228 2 Con 3 Lab 1 LD 7 Cheshire East Quota: 51311 3 Con 1 Lab 1 LD 8 Greater Manchester North West Quota: 50846 2 Con 3 Lab 1 LD 9 Cities of Manchester & Salford Quota: 33719 1 Con 3 Lab 1 LD 10 Greater Manchester East Quota: 43230 2 Con 3 Lab 1 LD 11 Greater Manchester South Quota: 44530
2 Con 1 Lab 2 LD Con: Vote Share: 31.71% / Seats 20 (35.09%) Lab: Vote Share: 39.44% / Seats 25 (43.89%) LD: Vote Share: 21.63% / Seats 12 (21.05%)
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Mar 21, 2014 19:41:59 GMT
Ceredigion and Western Powys
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Jim
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Post by Jim on Mar 21, 2014 23:52:48 GMT
So first of all my 'realistic' interpretation of what I think would be ideal – the Lincolnshire Coast Constituency: And now for the legendary, nay armageddenous, A52 Constituency:
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mrtoad
Labour
He is a toad. Who knows what a toad thinks?
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Post by mrtoad on Mar 28, 2014 20:50:04 GMT
Hadn't stumbled on this before - but once had a conversation with someone who is senior and involved that mentioned the constituencies of 'Partick and Na h-Eileanan an Iar' and 'Dyce, Orkney and Shetland'
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