By-elections - 4th July 2013

[independentukip]

For middleenglander: The Green party contested Broadland, Aylsham in 2011. There wasn't a UKIP candidate then.

BTW, thanks very much for producing this very handy information each week.

[Deleted]

I predicted a UKIP gain in Newcastle-under-Lyme but it appears that where there is a history of UKIP success/campaigning then they do not seem to be capitalising on the recent upswing, somewhat like in Penzance in the Cornwall Unitary Elections. No surprise really.
I suspect the fact the candidate was the recently retired Labour councillor probably seemed just a bit too opportunistic for the local electorate.

[Deleted]

[middleenglander]

Jul 4, 2013 22:36:12 GMT independentukip said:

For middleenglander: The Green party contested Broadland, Aylsham in 2011. There wasn't a UKIP candidate then.

BTW, thanks very much for producing this very handy information each week.

Oops, having problems with my PC / internet today with result I am making mistakes as I am somewhat p1ssed off with it. Will have to see whether it clears overnight as has happened before.

[The Bishop]

Shouldn't we have a result from N Tyneside by now?? Pretty poor show if they have left it to the morning, tbh.

[obsie]

Jul 4, 2013 23:34:14 GMT The Bishop said:

Shouldn't we have a result from N Tyneside by now?? Pretty poor show if they have left it to the morning, tbh.

Jim Allan
‏@cllrjimallan
Wendy Lott is the new labour councillor for Riverside Ward in North Tyneside, Tory votes just evaporated, Labour grows stronger in NT

[Deleted]

good solid set of results for us, the LD's squeezing the Tories where no UKIP presence. Given the so called fuss over labour in the recent days, I wonder if that has any impact at all ?

[Pete Whitehead]

You should know that Labour councillors on Twitter can't fit the numbers into 140 characters once they've indulged in all therequisite triumphalism and hyperbole

[Pete Whitehead]

But while that has generally been the case I would point out again that they did win the county council seat covering the area in May and by my reckoning that was a notional gain. They did respectably enough in other parts of the district too almost winning Kidsgrove (though this would have been a notional hold)

[obsie]

Riverside

Lab 1067 85.6%
Con 179 14.4%

[Pete Whitehead]

So in fact the Tory vote 'evaporated' to about the same extent as Labour's did

[obsie]

Changes since 2012: Lab +1.0, Con -1.0

[middleenglander]

Broadland, Aylsham - Lib Dem gain from Conservative
- amended for Labour vote of 181 and not the 188 reported last night

Party	2013 vote	2013 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Lib Dem	688	50.2%	+16.5%	+20.1%	+4.9%	+5.0%
Conservative	501	36.6%	-1.5%	-2.4%	-8.3%	-8.7%
Labour	181	13.2%	-2.2%	-3.2%	+3.4%	+3.8%
Green			-12.7%	-14.5%
Total votes	1,370		-2,136	-1,709	-1,137	-1,009

Swing Conservative to Lib Dem 9% / 11% since 2011 and ~7% since 2007

Newcastle-under-Lyme, Silverdale & Parksite - Labour hold
- amended for Labour vote of 387 not the 386 reported last night

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2011	since 2010	since 2007	since 2006
Labour	387	54.2%	+7.8%	+17.0%	+26.1%	+12.3%
UKIP	254	35.7%	-6.8%	+7.9%	-17.9%	+3.8%
Conservatives	58	8.1%	-2.9%	-11.4%	-2.6%	-5.4%
TUSAC	14	2.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Lib Dems				-15.5%	-7.6%	-12.8%
Total votes	713		-301	-930	-289	-216

Swing UKIP to Labour 7¼% since 2011, 4½% since 2010, 22% since 2007 and 4% since 2006

North Tyneside, Riverside -

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010	since 2008
Labour	1,067	85.6%	+1.0%	+13.6%	+31.0%	+32.7%
Conservatives	179	14.4%	-1.0%	-3.5%	-5.0%	-1.9%
Lib Dems				-10.1%	-26.0%	-23.2%
Green						-7.6%
Total votes	1,246		-744	-1,220	-2,823	-1,020

Swing Conservative to Labour 1% since 2012 and ~8½% since 2011
- although not meaningful for 2010 and 2008 as Lib Dems were then second but did not contest by-election

Swansea, Llanamlet - Labour hold

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2012 "top"	since 2012 "average"	since 2008 "top"	since 2008 "average"
Labour	1,368	75.0%	+12.4%	+13.2%	+48.4%	+49.7%
Conservatives	236	12.9%	+2.8%	+2.9%	+0.6%	+1.0%
Lib Dems	113	6.2%	from nowhere	from nowhere	-3.6%	-3.9%
National Front	108	5.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent			-27.3%	-28.2%	-21.6%	-20.3%
Green					-15.1%	-16.2%
BNP					-14.6%	-15.7%
Total votes	1,825		-1,666	-1,556	-2,388	-2,089

Swing not meaningful

Vale of White Horse, Fitzharris - Lib Dem gain from Conservatives

Party	2013 votes	2013 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Lib Dems	479	50.3%	+7.6%	+8.4%	+0.1%	+0.3%
Conservatives	378	39.7%	no change	-0.5%	+5.2%	+5.2%
Labour	96	10.1%	-7.5%	-7.9%	+4.4%	+4.4%
Green					-9.7%	-9.8%
Total votes	953		-707	-672	-645	-632

Swing Conservative to Lib Dems ~4% since 2011 but ~2½% Lib Dem to Conservative since 2007

[The Bishop]

Some UKIPpers are tweeting about a big win for them at TC level - any details?

[marksenior]

There were 2 wins for UKIP in Shropshire yesterday a Town council election against an Independent and a Parish council election against Labour .

[independentukip]

www.shropshirelive.com/2013/07/05/two-by-election-wins-for-ukip-in-telford/

Two by-election wins for UKIP in Telford

UKIP Telford & Wrekin are celebrating two election results after winning both the Madeley Town Council and Stirchley & Brookside Parish Council by-elections.

Ryan Laing beat the Conservative candidate who stood as an independent, Grant Foxon, by 331 votes to 206 in Woodside. The 61.4% vote share may be the new record percentage win in a by-election for UKIP anywhere in the country.

Brookside candidate, Lynda Hogger, beat Labour borough councillor Nathan England by 442 votes to 322 gaining 57.85% of the vote.

The turnout was 12 per cent.

UKIP Telford & Wrekin now has 9 councillors representing Brookside, Dawley, Dothill, Ercall Magna, Kynnersley, Hollinswood, Shifnal and Woodside.

I've seen mention of a UKIP win on the Isle of Wight but have no further information.

[erlend]

This is how it is done

Aylsham, Broadland DC Lib Dem 688, Con 501, Lab 181 Lib Dem GAIN from Tory!

I make that 75 so room for extra parties and vote figure greater than 1000. But I do admit I have seen it done badly and wanting the details by my side too.

[gwynthegriff]

Jul 5, 2013 7:03:33 GMT @ianrobo said:

good solid set of results for us, the LD's squeezing the Tories where no UKIP presence. Given the so called fuss over labour in the recent days, I wonder if that has any impact at all ?

Not yet, not yet.

[erlend]

It's actually the type of issue which outside the local area only bothers the chatterati. That does not excuse it but it's unlikely to turn many votes.

[finsobruce]

Jul 5, 2013 7:56:53 GMT @trident said:

Jul 4, 2013 22:48:20 GMT CatholicLeft said:

I predicted a UKIP gain in Newcastle-under-Lyme but it appears that where there is a history of UKIP success/campaigning then they do not seem to be capitalising on the recent upswing, somewhat like in Penzance in the Cornwall Unitary Elections. No surprise really.
I suspect the fact the candidate was the recently retired Labour councillor probably seemed just a bit too opportunistic for the local electorate.

Maybe that is because where UKIP have had councillors, those councillors weren't very good?

I imagine that the Newcastle-under-Lyme kippers must be green with envy when they see party colleagues gaining seats up and down the country, while they're losing ground in their area.

I suppose the point is that when any party starts off gaining electoral success it is not necessarily where they are going to turn out to be strongest or able to sustain more growth in the long run . Seats are won by pioneering activists or sometimes people just get lucky and then they are overtaken by events as the party's vote becomes more widespread across the country. But nevertheless a good labour defence given the prevailing trend and the size of the majority.