Prediction Competition for June 2013

[Philip Davies]

Jun 26, 2013 23:50:51 GMT Philip Davies said:

BASILDON - Billericay East

Thomas BEANEY (National Front) 0.7
Lauren BROWN (The Labour Party Candidate) 12.7
Terry GANDY (UKIP Local Residents) 28.8
Nigel HORN (Liberal Democrat) 5.5
Andrew SCHRADER (The Conservative Party Candidate) 52.3


DARTFORD - Newtown

David BAKER (Labour Party Candidate) 42.2
Ivan BURCH (UKIP) 18.4
Rosanna CURRANS (Local Conservatives) 39.4


NEWARK AND SHERWOOD - Farnsfield and Bilsthorpe

Glenn BARDILL (The Labour Party Candidate) 44.2
Frank TAYLOR (Conservative Party Candidate) 55.8


PLYMOUTH - Southway

Ryan ALDRED (Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition) 1.5
Peter BERROW (UKIP) 19.8
David DOWNIE (The Conservative Party) 24.3
Jonny MORRIS (Labour Party Candidate) 46.4
Dennis SILVERWOOD (Independent) 2.0
Justin STAFFORD (Liberal Democrat) 6.0


RUTLAND - Ketton

Martin BROOKES (Independent) 4
Gary CONDE (Conservative Party Candidate) 32
Andrew MCGILVRAY (Independent) 42
Liam POWELL (UK Independence Party) 22


SOUTH TYNESIDE - Cleadon and East Boldon

Colin CAMPBELL (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 16
Margaret MELING (Labour Party Candidate) 46
Fiona MILBURN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 38


SOUTH TYNESIDE - Primrose

John CLARKE (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 22.1
John COE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 7.0
Moira SMITH (Labour Party Candidate) 64.2
Martin VAUGHAN (British National Party) 6.7


WORCESTERSHIRE - Stourport-on-Severn

Angela HARTWICH (Green Party)
John HOLDEN (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Carl MASON (British National Party)
Paul PRESTON (Liberal Democrat)
Chris ROGERS (The Conservative Party Candidate)
John THOMAS (Independent Community and Health Concern)
Carol WARREN (The Labour Party Candidate)

[Pete Whitehead]

Jun 27, 2013 16:08:19 GMT Philip Davies said:

Jun 26, 2013 23:50:51 GMT Philip Davies said:

BASILDON
WORCESTERSHIRE - Stourport-on-Severn

Angela HARTWICH (Green Party)
John HOLDEN (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Carl MASON (British National Party)
Paul PRESTON (Liberal Democrat)
Chris ROGERS (The Conservative Party Candidate)
John THOMAS (Independent Community and Health Concern)
Carol WARREN (The Labour Party Candidate)

[Philip Davies]

Oh no spaghettio - It was late and I had no chance of winning! But for the record:

WORCESTERSHIRE - Stourport-on-Severn

Angela HARTWICH (Green Party) 3
John HOLDEN (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 18
Carl MASON (British National Party) 2
Paul PRESTON (Liberal Democrat) 4
Chris ROGERS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 18.9
John THOMAS (Independent Community and Health Concern) 31.1
Carol WARREN (The Labour Party Candidate) 23

[middleenglander]

Just 9 entries this week with nothing from Dibs. PhilDav gets 100 additional faults for failing to give any figures at Worcestershire, Stourport whilst greatkingrat gets 1 additional fault for adding to 99% in the same contest and hempie 6 additional faults for adding to 106% in South Tyneside, Cleadon & East Bolden.

Basildon: 8 Conservative holds, Just Looking UKIP gain
Dartford: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, Just Looking UKIP gain
Newark & Sherwood: 8 Conservative holds, Just Looking Labour gain
Plymouth: 8 Labour gain from Conservative, Just Looking UKIP gain
Rutland: 6 Conservative holds, Just Looking & Mark Senior UKIP gain, PhilDav Ind M gain
South Tyneside: C & EB: 100% Labour gain from Conservative sitting as UKIP
South Tyneside P: 100% Labour hold
Worcestershire: 8 ICHC gains from UKIP, Just Looking UKIP hold

[Robert Waller]

With the apparent generosity from Phildav and JustLooking, I am determined to leap up the monthly table - to an undeserved seventh place!

[Deleted]

Jun 27, 2013 20:15:39 GMT Robert Waller said:

With the apparent generosity from Phildav and JustLooking, I am determined to leap up the monthly table - to an undeserved seventh place!

Hey I might have just played a blinder

[Pete Whitehead]

Well 'your' and Robert's prediction in Primrose were pretty good

[Robert Waller]

After the two S Tyneside results, I make it that Mark has increased his lead, and Lancastrian moved into second place for the month.
But Andrea reports Mark got the wrong winner in Ketton ...

[Pete Whitehead]

I think Robert will have won the week but looks close between four others for the monthly contest, pending the others votes in Stourport

[Robert Waller]

After seven of the eight results, with just Newark to come, I think Tony may now be ahead, close for second between Lancastrian, GKR and Pete.

[Robert Waller]

Pete, Andrea edited his post to include the Stourport others

[Pete Whitehead]

ah thanks will go and look. I think it may be a Lancastrian victory

[middleenglander]

I obviously need to check and verify the results, but at the moment it looks subject to recount like:

439.1 Pete Whitehead
439.4 Tonyotim
443.3 greatkingrat
444.2 Lancastrian
455.4 Robert Waller
457.6 Mark Senior
479.3 hempie
Bar

[Pete Whitehead]

I agree on most of those. I have Mark Senior with 10 higher (did you get his wrong winner fault in Rutland?) and Lancastrian 11 lower. Where we disagree though your numbers almost always turn out to be correct so I hope they are this time. Extraodinarily close

[Pete Whitehead]

I had Lancastrians UKIP and Independent M figures the wrong way around so agree now

[Robert Waller]

I think what pushed Pete over the line in this photo-finish is that I guess he had the best prediction in Newark, Farnsfield & Bilsthorpe.
What I imagine he knew is that this is a massively divided ward, between the very conservative Farnsfield (though often Independent in the past, for example electing the wonderfully named Eric Bust for years, if I recall) - and Bilsthorpe, which is actually one of the 1920s 'new mining villages' I studied for my doctoral thesis ('The Dukeries Transformed').
I was still involved in the area when Bilsthorpe was merged with rural villages both for the district and county. The feeling was 'us and them and we're going to be outvoted'.
In this type of ward differential turnout is critical and I should have stuck even more firmly with my idea that this would disadvantage Labour, even to the extent of a negative swing, yesterday.
Well done Pete!

[Tony Otim]

So close and yet so far!

Congratulations to Pete (again!) who really has an amazingly impressive record this year!

A good contest this month.

I probably won't be around for most of July, so will give it a miss, but be back in August.

[marksenior]

A great contest this month . My gamble on Rutland smacked me in the face .

[Robert Waller]

Yes, a remarkably close multiple photo-finish after 18 varied contests over the month.
I must say that I have nothing against Pete but I would rather Tony or Lancastrian had gained first place. This is a) because I never 'support' people who usually or always win (at anything) and
b) I am somewhat concerned at the decline in numbers taking part in this fascinating, educational and very well run competition.
I think there is a tendency of 'if I can't win I won't take part', a common sentiment though (obviously ) not one I share*. It is therefore nice to show that there can be a variety of winners, for example Lancastrian has shown that a newcomer can quickly be very competitive.

*I would also like to tip my hat to another relative newbie, Just Looking, for his enterprising and spirited attitude to the contest!

[Deleted]

Jun 28, 2013 10:00:05 GMT Robert Waller said:

*I would also like to tip my hat to another relative newbie, Just Looking, for his enterprising and spirited attitude to the contest!

You are a teacher aren't you?

A school report one liner which translate into he tried but got it all wrong