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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 28, 2013 7:55:00 GMT
Maybe its based on wishful thinking. Seems to be good enough for you though Tricky. You seem to forget the large number of LD voters in places like the West Country who are Eurosceptic who will not vote for the LDs in a European election. See how your vote drops through the floor there. You got 13% at the last European elections and you will get lower than that this time, but I think not as low as 8%. I really don;t think that there are that many Europhile Tories who feel that the current leadership are too Eurosceptic. Most of that type already defecetd to the Lib Dems
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2013 10:39:52 GMT
but 18% when we have London and Met elections as well is just unbelievable ...
Are they now using the Dan Hodges method of polling ?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 28, 2013 10:47:20 GMT
ComRes aren't widely known as Comedy Results for nothing, you know  |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 28, 2013 11:09:01 GMT
I can't believe that we're still discussing a poll nobody, but nobody on here finds credible.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2013 12:02:55 GMT
I'd be shocked if you do as well in the europeans as the general. I think you will be about at 8 or so in the former, 15-17 in the latter. And your dataset is? Well in the former polling bar this last obvious rogue. In the latter a mix of polling and the fact that you will obviously mount a comeback. |
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tricky
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Post by tricky on May 28, 2013 13:52:51 GMT
Well in the former polling bar this last obvious rogue. In the latter a mix of polling and the fact that you will obviously mount a comeback. Pretty much all of the Euro specific polling has shown us scoring above our GE VI figure though so how are you justifying this in light of the data? |
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Post by erlend on May 28, 2013 13:53:30 GMT
There are rogues and very odd. The margin of error is supposed to be about 3% at the 95% confidence level. To get perhaps 5% takes that to one poll in several hundred (and more if you think the LDs are lower than 13%). If you think we are on 8% that might be one in 10,000 I'm not really sure. The lines are not up on the site yrt but wonder if there is anything in common with that one showing a large Green vote recently, ie it is the balancing that has unbalanced it.
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Andrew_S
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Post by Andrew_S on May 28, 2013 13:55:36 GMT
ComRes have just released a Westminster poll putting the LDs on 9%.
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tricky
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Post by tricky on May 28, 2013 13:55:47 GMT
Just to be clear, I think that 18% is pie in the sky, but I also think we will be significantly higher than 8.
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Post by erlend on May 28, 2013 14:29:26 GMT
I think a significant part of the issue that tricky indicates is that the voters that have deserted us were probably amongst our voters least likely to vote for us in previous Euro elections. Thus reducing the differential.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2013 17:13:56 GMT
Well in the former polling bar this last obvious rogue. In the latter a mix of polling and the fact that you will obviously mount a comeback. Pretty much all of the Euro specific polling has shown us scoring above our GE VI figure though so how are you justifying this in light of the data? Because your recovery will be after the 2014 election not before in all likelehood. If you want a bet of honour on whether you will score higher in the euros or the nationals i will gladly take it. |
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2013 17:15:33 GMT
I think a significant part of the issue that tricky indicates is that the voters that have deserted us were probably amongst our voters least likely to vote for us in previous Euro elections. Thus reducing the differential. What about your right wing eurosceptic flank? Id have thought them relatively unlikely to back you in european elections. |
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tricky
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Post by tricky on May 28, 2013 17:53:19 GMT
Pretty much all of the Euro specific polling has shown us scoring above our GE VI figure though so how are you justifying this in light of the data? Because your recovery will be after the 2014 election not before in all likelehood. If you want a bet of honour on whether you will score higher in the euros or the nationals i will gladly take it. Nope because I think we will score way higher in the GE than the polls show. The question I asked was how you justify it in terms of the data. That is a different question than what you think will happen. |
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Post by erlend on May 28, 2013 17:53:55 GMT
But they didn't back as in previous euro elections (bar that one in 1984 possibly). What we have lost is our protest vote flank which in 2009 voted all over the shop and currently votes UKIP, a good chunk in 2009 voted Green. I am not saying there is nobody that voted for us in 2013 that won't vote for us in a Euro election but I think it is a reduced proportion compared to historically.
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Post by Deleted on May 28, 2013 19:07:21 GMT
Because your recovery will be after the 2014 election not before in all likelehood. If you want a bet of honour on whether you will score higher in the euros or the nationals i will gladly take it. Nope because I think we will score way higher in the GE than the polls show. The question I asked was how you justify it in terms of the data. That is a different question than what you think will happen. On the data available without a critical eye you can't really, granted. Its my interpretation of the data rather than the data themselves. What do you think the LDs will get in 2015? Do you think my 15-18 range is accurate? How do you see Con and Lab scores going? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 28, 2013 19:32:41 GMT
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 28, 2013 20:40:45 GMT
I think a significant part of the issue that tricky indicates is that the voters that have deserted us were probably amongst our voters least likely to vote for us in previous Euro elections. Thus reducing the differential.
Id have thought them relatively unlikely to back you in european elections. You don't have to be right wing to be Eurosceptic y'know. And though I did ponder voting elsewhere last time [in an attempt to minimise the chances of a BNP success] I expect to vote Lib Dem next year.  |
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Post by Devonian on May 28, 2013 20:47:25 GMT
Looking at the full breakdown www.comres.co.uk/polls/Open_Europe_EU_and_Westminster_VI_Poll_May_2013.pdfOne thing that strikes me is how low the Green Party are polling. I have thought for some time that the Green Party have not been doing nearly as well as might be expected. The ComRes poll show them getting only 4% for the Euro poll. Now of course this is just one poll and I expect they'll get more than that on the day but I haven't seen any evidence that they will make any advance on 2009 in 2014. Natalie Bennett has said she wants to win 6 Euro seats in 2014. At the moment that's looking very optimistic. |
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tricky
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Post by tricky on May 28, 2013 22:21:57 GMT
I read the crosstabs. Westminster VI is 5/10 to 10/10 certainty to vote. EU VI is 10/10 only. There are some interesting differences between the northern and southern parts of the country. |
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Post by lancastrian on May 28, 2013 22:26:52 GMT
Read page 28 carefully.
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