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Post by Devonian on May 27, 2013 5:15:37 GMT
This has been mentioned a few times on twitter
Nothing on the ComRes or Open Europe websites yet. If confirmed it would be the first time UKIP has been first in a national opinion poll
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Post by innocentabroad on May 27, 2013 7:10:34 GMT
This has been mentioned a few times on twitter Nothing on the ComRes or Open Europe websites yet. If confirmed it would be the first time UKIP has been first in a national opinion poll Herdson (Smithson's tame Tory) now reporting that the Tory answer to the UKIP surge is to be "vote UKIP get Miliband". So now they're reduced to exhuming slogans... remember "vote Liberal get Labour"? |
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on May 27, 2013 7:42:18 GMT
In Swale we may have to resort to "Vote Tory get Labour" in some areas  |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 27, 2013 9:39:55 GMT
The Times is using it and spinning it along the Murdoch line, to hit the Conservatives and boost UKIP.
Full figures are:
UKIP 27 (+10.5 on 2009)
Lab 23 (+7.3)
C 21 (-6.7)
L Dem 18 (+4.3)
Oths 11
Full tables are awaited. I'm very sceptical that opinion polling for the EP elections is going to be particularly accurate given the low turnout in them. That Liberal Democrat figure looks very high given their general underperformance in EP elections.
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Post by iainbhx on May 27, 2013 9:43:52 GMT
The Times is using it and spinning it along the Murdoch line, to hit the Conservatives and boost UKIP. Full figures are: UKIP 27 (+10.5 on 2009) Lab 23 (+7.3) C 21 (-6.7) L Dem 18 (+4.3) Oths 11 Full tables are awaited. I'm very sceptical that opinion polling for the EP elections is going to be particularly accurate given the low turnout in them. That Liberal Democrat figure looks very high given their general underperformance in EP elections. 18, in a Euro-election. Did they put a 1 in front by accident? |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on May 27, 2013 9:45:29 GMT
The Others score also looks a bit low for the Euros, but that's maybe not so unexpected in a poll so far out, but I struggle to see the LDs getting their best result since 1984 under current circumstances.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on May 27, 2013 9:58:16 GMT
Another joke poll from ComRes - who knew??
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Pimpernal
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Post by Pimpernal on May 27, 2013 10:08:04 GMT
I think UKIP have peaked too soon - their real objective must be the 2014 Euro elections and there is plenty of time for their bubble to deflate, if not to burst, before then. Or to carry on growing of course... |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 27, 2013 10:16:31 GMT
Trident wrote that, not me.
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Post by Andrew_S on May 27, 2013 13:01:08 GMT
Unfortunately this poll can't be taken seriously because there's no way the LDs are going to get anywhere near 18% in the Euro elections next year.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 13:52:42 GMT
My feeling is that the LDs won't do as terribly as expected in the Euro's, if only because they've traditionally done very poorly in these elections anyway.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 13:53:48 GMT
Richard Howitt MEP @richardhowitt
#BuryStEdmunds MP admits Tories "windy" as even Open Europe poll shows 3-in-4 oppose UK leaving EU incl 40% UKIP voters! @timespolitics p4
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 15:34:48 GMT
From Antony Wells from the last EU poll Comres did in Jan and the UKIP rise is not so great but the LAb - LD swing  Conservatives down 1, Labour down 13, Lib Dem up 10, UKIP up 4 |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on May 27, 2013 16:27:44 GMT
lolcomres
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Post by erlend on May 27, 2013 18:08:21 GMT
18 seems a trifle optimistic for us in a Euro election in the current climate. I would guess as likely do have a smaller differential (even ratio differential) with our concurrent Westminster Poll rating than traditional but to be well higher would be 'great fun'.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on May 27, 2013 19:15:30 GMT
If I was taking it seriously, which I am not, I could concoct a scenario where the voters are treating the poll as a sort of proxy eu referendum, seeing as that is all over the news, and those who wish to register support for our membership of the EU are doing so by saying they would vote for the only party not joining the fight to sound most Eurosceptic
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 19:51:09 GMT
From Antony Wells from the last EU poll Comres did in Jan and the UKIP rise is not so great but the LAb - LD swing Conservatives down 1, Labour down 13, Lib Dem up 10, UKIP up 4 So comres are claiming that the liberals are doing far better than in 2009? Hmmm. To be fair to comres, its possible to produce a fair balanced sample demographically that just gives you weird results. Not necessarily them to blame. |
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tricky
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Post by tricky on May 27, 2013 20:32:14 GMT
I have reason to believe that the polls consistently showing our Euro share being higher than our GE share is real.
I do think 18 is optimistic though!
There is a reason it was the Tories that originally took us into the EEC and that Thatcher was deposed for being too eurosceptic. There is a decent sized minority of the Tory vote that really doesn't want us to leave the EU because of the business benefits. Under coalition that vote has somewhere to go.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 27, 2013 23:30:56 GMT
I have reason to believe that the polls consistently showing our Euro share being higher than our GE share is real. I do think 18 is optimistic though! There is a reason it was the Tories that originally took us into the EEC and that Thatcher was deposed for being too eurosceptic. There is a decent sized minority of the Tory vote that really doesn't want us to leave the EU because of the business benefits. Under coalition that vote has somewhere to go. I'd be shocked if you do as well in the europeans as the general. I think you will be about at 8 or so in the former, 15-18 in the latter. |
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tricky
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Post by tricky on May 28, 2013 7:46:21 GMT
I have reason to believe that the polls consistently showing our Euro share being higher than our GE share is real. I do think 18 is optimistic though! There is a reason it was the Tories that originally took us into the EEC and that Thatcher was deposed for being too eurosceptic. There is a decent sized minority of the Tory vote that really doesn't want us to leave the EU because of the business benefits. Under coalition that vote has somewhere to go. I'd be shocked if you do as well in the europeans as the general. I think you will be about at 8 or so in the former, 15-17 in the latter. And your dataset is? |
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