Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on May 20, 2013 13:54:10 GMT
Well, I can't add threads in the vote 2014 section, so I'm going to put these here. (Kris can move them or amalgamate them as he sees fit). Let's start with the biggest - Germany currently has 99 seats. I think, but am not totally sure, that they're due to lose 3 next year. Results last time: CDU/CSU | 37.9% | -6.6 | 42 seats | -7 | EPP | SPD | 20.8 | -0.7 | 23 | nc | PES | Grn | 12.1 | +0.2 | 14 | +1 | EGP | FDP | 11.0 | +4.9 | 12 | +5 | ALDE | Linke | 7.5 | +1.4 | 8 | +1 | EUL |
I'd guess that FDP are going to lose seats (possibly the whole lot if they fall below 5% nationally). Who picks those up is maybe more questionable. The Pirates seem to have fallen back but could AFD make a UKIP style breakthrough in the Euros? Otherwise I'd guess all three leading parties could pick up a few seats each. Of course, all that could be altered by the outcome of the national elections in September.
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Post by erlend on May 21, 2013 10:05:36 GMT
The FDP'sbest hope is to beat the 5% this year but the left to be in government. About 50% on the first and 50% chance then for the 2nd. So seems like a 25% chance they will be back.
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