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Post by yellowperil on Dec 31, 2018 8:30:18 GMT
From 1841 to 1955 Liverpool Council was Tory for 111 years. Not so! In the City Council elections held on November 1st 1895 the Liberals made 3 gains from the Conservatives, (just) giving overall control to the Liberals/Irish Nationalists. This control was entrenched eight days later when eight new Aldermen were elected (6 Liberals and 2 Irish Nationalists). It wasn't until 1895 that the Conservatives (with their Liberal Unionist allies) regained control of the City Council. The 1895 elections were all-out on new boundaries and covered an expanded City Council area. In terms of seats, the Conservatives had a landslide victory. Has something gone wrong with your dates here? As this stands it doesn't appear to make sense?
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Post by casualobserver on Dec 31, 2018 8:52:31 GMT
Has something gone wrong with your dates here? As this stands it doesn't appear to make sense? Corrected! I was working from memory, and it was only when I went back to check about the first Lord Mayor that I saw my error.
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 31, 2018 8:56:34 GMT
Has something gone wrong with your dates here? As this stands it doesn't appear to make sense? Corrected! I was working from memory, and it was only when I went back to check about the first Lord Mayor that I saw my error. thanks- guessed that might be it.
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Post by Merseymike on Dec 31, 2018 9:54:39 GMT
Anthony Steen holds the record for the longest serving Conservative MP without a privy counsellorship or knighthood to his name-36 years in total. Ironically, he pushed out, following boundary changes in 1983, another long-serving Conservative MP with that dubious lack of achievement, Ray Mawby (who managed 28 years as an MP without achieving either of those honours). He is not however the longest serving Conservative MP without ever being a minister-that record is held by Sir John Langford-Holt, who never wanted or obtained ministerial office in 38 years as MP for Shrewsbury (1945 to 1983) but was nevertheless knighted in 1962 for his time in Parliament. It’s possible to imagine either Philip Davies or Philip Hollobone rivalling Langford-Holt for that title in due course. Fair chance that Philip Davies could lose hus seat, though
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 31, 2018 10:09:55 GMT
heslingtonian , you are correct regarding all three of these Conservative MPs. It will be 2 1/2 more years before the record is broken, though, and if a snap election occurred in 2019 the chances are at least one of those three will not stand for re-election. I suspect Gale will be the most likely to stand down of the three. Cash strikes me as being in the Ken Clarke/Dennis Skinner category. If the boundary changes go through though, Cash will be left without a seat, as the majority will be linked with south Stoke, where of course there is now a new young Conservative MP. Other bits go to Moorlands, Newcastle and Stafford.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 31, 2018 13:25:37 GMT
From 1841 to 1955 Liverpool Council was Tory for 111 years. Not so! In the City Council elections held on November 1st 1892 the Liberals made 3 gains from the Conservatives, (just) giving overall control to the Liberals/Irish Nationalists. This control was entrenched eight days later when eight new Aldermen were elected (6 Liberals and 2 Irish Nationalists). The right to use the title "Lord Mayor" was only granted in 1892 - the first Lord Mayor of Liverpool was therefore a Liberal Councillor from Exchange Ward. It wasn't until 1895 that the Conservatives (with their Liberal Unionist allies) regained control of the City Council. The 1895 elections were all-out on new boundaries and covered an expanded City Council area. In terms of seats, the Conservatives had a landslide victory. 1841-1955 is 114 years so they did control it for 111 years.
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Post by casualobserver on Dec 31, 2018 19:43:07 GMT
Not so! In the City Council elections held on November 1st 1892 the Liberals made 3 gains from the Conservatives, (just) giving overall control to the Liberals/Irish Nationalists. This control was entrenched eight days later when eight new Aldermen were elected (6 Liberals and 2 Irish Nationalists). The right to use the title "Lord Mayor" was only granted in 1892 - the first Lord Mayor of Liverpool was therefore a Liberal Councillor from Exchange Ward. It wasn't until 1895 that the Conservatives (with their Liberal Unionist allies) regained control of the City Council. The 1895 elections were all-out on new boundaries and covered an expanded City Council area. In terms of seats, the Conservatives had a landslide victory. 1841-1955 is 114 years so they did control it for 111 years. I stand corrected, conservativeestimate, my apologies. Shouldn't have started the New Year celebrations so early - I might then have noticed that 1955 - 1841 doesn't equal 111!
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Post by johnloony on Dec 31, 2018 22:15:31 GMT
For no particular reason, I was wondering how many of the ten digits 0123456789 are used (or not used) in the results of parliamentary by-elections. I started by assuming that all ten digits would be used in almost all results, due to the large number of candidates in most by-elections - but upon going through the list, I find that there are several with digits missing. This list includes all 15 of the by-elections in Northern Ireland on 23rd January 1986, each of which had 2 or 3 or 4 candidates:
23rd January 1986: North Antrim: 0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8
23rd January 1986: Londonderry East: 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 23rd January 1986: South Antrim: 2, 4, 5, 6, 9
7th March 2013: Mid Ulster: 0, 3, 5, 9 8th May 1986: Ryedale: 0, 5, 8, 9 23rd January 1986: East Antrim: 1, 2, 7, 9 23rd January 1986: Lagan Valley: 0, 6, 7, 9 23rd January 1986: North Down: 1, 2, 4, 5 23rd January 1986: Strangford: 0, 4, 5, 8
5th May 2011: Leicester South: 0, 2, 8 4th July 1991: Liverpool Walton: 0, 8, 9 16th May 1991: Monmouth: 0, 8, 9 29th November 1990: Paisley North: 0, 4, 6 23rd January 1986: Newry & Armagh: 3, 7, 8 23rd January 1986: Down South: 0, 7, 8 23rd January 1986: Upper Bann: 0, 4 5
20th October 2016: Witney: 0, 8 14th July 2005: Cheadle: 0, 4 21st December 2000: Falkirk West: 0, 3 23rd November 2000: West Bromwich West: 3, 5 21st September 2000: Antrim South: 5, 8 4th May 2000: Romsey: 3, 8 9th June 1994: Bradford South: 6, 9 7th November 1991: Hemsworth: 3, 7 18th October 1990: Eastbourne: 7, 9 23rd February 1989: Pontypridd: 6, 8 13th November 1986: Knowsley North: 2, 5 23rd January 1986: Belfast East: 3, 4 23rd January 1986: Belfast South: 4, 8 23rd January 1986: Fermanagh & South Tyrone: 3, 9 23rd January 1986: Mid Ulster: 4, 7 3rd May 1984: Stafford: 5, 9 3rd May 1984: Surrey South West: 0, 3 3rd May 1984: Cynon Valley: 0, 7
3rd May 2018: West Tyrone: 7 23rd February 2017: Copeland: 9 1st December 2016: Richmond Park: 9 5th May 2016: Ogmore: 4 3rd December 2015: Oldham West & Royton: 3 20th November 2014: Rochester & Strood: 0 9th October 2014: Heywood & Middleton: 2 13th February 2014: Wythenshawe & Sale East: 5 2nd May 2013: South Shields: 6 29th November 2013: Middlesbrough: 4 15th November 2012: Cardiff South & Penarth: 6 29th March 2012: Bradford West: 9 30th June 2011: Inverclyde: 3 9th June 2011: Belfast West: 4 12th November 2009: Glasgow North East: 6 23rd July 2009: Norwich North: 7 6th November 2008: Glenrothes: 5 24th July 2008: Glasgow East: 4 19th July 2007: Ealing Southall: 4 29th June 2006: Blaenau Gwent: 6 14th February 2002: Ogmore: 4 22nd November 2001: Ipswich: 0 23rd November 2000: Glasgow Anniesland: 7 23rd September 1999: Hamilton South: 9 23rd September 1999: Wigan: 7 10th June 1999: Leeds Central: 9 6th November 1997: Paisley South: 9 31st July 1997: Uxbridge: 4 1st February 1995: Hemsworth: 0 25th May 1995: Perth & Kinross: 7 30th June 1994: Monklands East: 4 9th June 1994: Dagenham: 9 9th June 1994: Newham North East: 7 9th June 1994: Eastleigh: 0 9th June 1994: Barking: 8 5th May 1994: Rotherham: 0 29th July 1993: Christchurch: 9 4th April 1991: Neath: 4 7th March 1991: Ribble Valley: 9 29th November 1990: Paisley South: 9 8th November 1990: Bootle: 4 15th June 1989: Glasgow Central: 6 4th May 1989: Vale of Glamorgan: 5 15th December 1988: Epping Forest: 5 10th November 1988: Glasgow Govan: 9 17th July 1986: Newcastle-under-Lyme: 4 8th May 1986: Derbyshire West: 0 10th April 1986: Fulham: 0 23rd January 1986: Belfast North: 8 4th July 1985: Brecon & Radnor: 8 13th December 1984: Enfield Southgate: 2
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Post by johnloony on Jan 1, 2019 5:37:23 GMT
For no particular reason, I was wondering how many of the ten digits 0123456789 are used (or not used) in the results of parliamentary by-elections. I started by assuming that all ten digits would be used in almost all results, due to the large number of candidates in most by-elections - but upon going through the list, I find that there are several with digits missing. This list includes all 15 of the by-elections in Northern Ireland on 23rd January 1986, each of which had 2 or 3 or 4 candidates: There are 23 on this list in which the digit 0 did not appear (obviously it is not available to be used as leading digit and is therefore more likely not to be used). 2 in which 1 didn't appear (1 is very likely to be a leading digit in the top two or three candidates). 8 in which 2 didn't appear 10 in which 3 didn't appear 22 in which 4 didn't appear 16 in which 5 didn't appear 11 in which 6 didn't appear 15 in which 7 didn't appear 17 in which 8 didn't appear 22 in which 9 didn't appear
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 1, 2019 6:12:51 GMT
For no particular reason, I was wondering how many of the ten digits 0123456789 are used (or not used) in the results of parliamentary by-elections. I started by assuming that all ten digits would be used in almost all results, due to the large number of candidates in most by-elections - but upon going through the list, I find that there are several with digits missing. This list includes all 15 of the by-elections in Northern Ireland on 23rd January 1986, each of which had 2 or 3 or 4 candidates: I think you've stumbled on a variant of Benford's Law of anomalous numbers.
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Post by greenchristian on Jan 1, 2019 10:38:52 GMT
For no particular reason, I was wondering how many of the ten digits 0123456789 are used (or not used) in the results of parliamentary by-elections. I started by assuming that all ten digits would be used in almost all results, due to the large number of candidates in most by-elections - but upon going through the list, I find that there are several with digits missing. This list includes all 15 of the by-elections in Northern Ireland on 23rd January 1986, each of which had 2 or 3 or 4 candidates: I think you've stumbled on a variant of Benford's Law of anomalous numbers. Which is something that can be applied to election results to work out the chances of there being widespread fraudulent declarations (I recall one article a few years back pointing this out in relation to some elections in Iran). The principle won't detect something like ballot stuffing, but it will detect if large numbers of returning officers (or equivalent) are simply making up the figures for their local area, as long as there are enough local areas declared for the differences from Benford's Law to be statistically significant.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Jan 1, 2019 16:52:13 GMT
The last time the following cities elected a Conservative Councillor/MP Glasgow: 2017/1979 Liverpool: 1994/1979 Manchester: 1992/1983 Newcastle: 1992/1983 Nottingham: 2018/1987 Sheffield: 2004/1992 Stoke-on-Trent: 2015/2017 Oxford reverses the general trend of last councillor after last MP, with 2000/2015. Although the overwhelming majority of the electorate in Oxford West & Abingdon is outside the city of Oxford.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 2, 2019 10:54:49 GMT
Started on the 97-2001 by-election spreadsheet thing. Love noticing all the "Socialist X" parties around in those 1997 constituencies where subsequent by-elections were held. It might not mean much but it keeps my autistic tendency happy with numbers. When I'm done I'll post the top tens here as usual. Is "Socialist Labour" still around? Surely that must consist only of Arthur and his Mrs by now.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Jan 2, 2019 11:04:15 GMT
The swing to the Tories in 2001 (around 1.75%) was very similar to the swing to Labour in 1992 (around 1.95%). The Tories made just one net gain in the former while Labour made more than 40 in the latter. This was largely down to Labour's strong performances in the marginals in the latter, while the Tories saw a swing against them in many marginals in 2001.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 2, 2019 11:05:07 GMT
Started on the 97-2001 by-election spreadsheet thing. Love noticing all the "Socialist X" parties around in those 1997 constituencies where subsequent by-elections were held. It might not mean much but it keeps my autistic tendency happy with numbers. When I'm done I'll post the top tens here as usual. Is "Socialist Labour" still around? Surely that must consist only of Arthur and his Mrs by now. And Jim Royle?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 2, 2019 11:10:26 GMT
Started on the 97-2001 by-election spreadsheet thing. Love noticing all the "Socialist X" parties around in those 1997 constituencies where subsequent by-elections were held. It might not mean much but it keeps my autistic tendency happy with numbers. When I'm done I'll post the top tens here as usual. Is "Socialist Labour" still around? Surely that must consist only of Arthur and his Mrs by now. www.socialist-labour-party.org.uk/Membership for 2017 was said to be 251 in their annual accounts submitted to the Electoral Commission. Oddly they now claim lineage from the Socialist Labour Party formed in 1903. This was a marxist movement inspired by Daniel De Leon which had a small but very motivated membership and managed to continue until 1980, but the only real connection is that they share the same name.
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Post by johnloony on Jan 2, 2019 15:14:24 GMT
Oddly they now claim lineage from the Socialist Labour Party formed in 1903. ... I think it always has done.
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Post by yellowperil on Jan 3, 2019 8:13:46 GMT
The 1997-2001 by-election period was one of a kind, looking back for my spreadsheet. Labour did so well (*too* well) in 1997 that their vote total was bound to fall in subsequent votes. There was many more Scottish by-elections than we are used to and West Brom West was a rare Speaker by-election. For my spreadsheet, I have one tab recording all the votes for parties at the 1997 election in constituencies where there was subsequently by-elections; one tab for those by-elections; one tab comparing like-for-like; and then the big multicoloured maths tab for this bit: Total votes at 1997 election | Party | Rank | Party | Total votes in 97-2001 byelections | 289,694 | Labour | 1 | Labour | 129,002 | 181,561 | Conservative | 2 | Conservative | 117,536 | 103,838 | Liberal Democrats | 3 | Liberal Democrats | 96,650 | 29,349 | SNP | 4 | SNP | 26,220 | 23,969 | Speaker Boothroyd | 5 | DUP | 11,601 | 23,108 | UUP | 6 | UUP | 10,779 | 16,728 | Plaid Cymru | 7 | Plaid Cymru | 10,716 | 12,908 | Referendum | 8 | Scottish Socialist | 4,583 | 8,546 | Independent Richard Silvester | 9 | UKIP | 4,486 | 6,497 | SDLP | 10 | SDLP | 3,496 |
Across all the by-elections held between 1997-2010, 433,799 votes were cast, down from 722,121 in the constituencies at the general election. very interesting, dok, but one piece of information which might help to make full sense of it seems to be missing - just how many by-elections are we talking about here? I can see you are very much concerned with the overall effect rather than the individual results, but knowing how many by-elections might help to make some sense of it and facilitate comparisons with other periods.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 4, 2019 9:08:25 GMT
On Westminster council, David John Harvey (councillor for Victoria ward 1988-2002) should not be confused with David John Harvey (councillor for Vincent Square ward, which takes in most of the old Victoria ward, since 2006).
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jan 4, 2019 15:55:57 GMT
I have one from Quebec Assembly.
In 1985, in Rouyn-Noranda--Témiscamingue constituency, the PQ incumbent Gilles Baril lost to the Liberal candidate Gilles Baril. Both Gilles Baril are not related and the Liberals most likely didn't pick him for confusion (he was a known local businessman).
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