Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2018 17:13:21 GMT
George H.W. Bush was the last Presidential candidate from any party to get over 400 electoral college votes. No presidential candidate since 1988 has got a higher share of the vote than Bush 41. Clinton also failed to break 50% in either 1992 or 1996.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2018 21:44:42 GMT
George H. W. Bush actually won a handful of counties in Georgia and Tennessee that Reagan didn’t win in 1984.
I also notice that Vermont was the only state to swing to the Democrats in 1980, and that Iowa was the only one to swing to the Republicans in 1992.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Dec 7, 2018 21:53:19 GMT
At the time of the SDP's creation, only two of the members of the Gang of Four actually held elected office.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2018 17:54:53 GMT
11 states can get you the 270 Electoral Votes required to win the US Presidency:
California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 9, 2018 18:30:55 GMT
11 states can get you the 270 Electoral Votes required to win the US Presidency: California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. A decent enough democrat could win all of them.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2018 19:09:09 GMT
11 states can get you the 270 Electoral Votes required to win the US Presidency: California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas. A decent enough democrat could win all of them. O’Rourke 2024
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2018 20:20:07 GMT
From 1917 until quite recently, UK constituency boundary rules stated that: "Each vote shall, as far as possible, command an equal share of representation in the House of Commons" Throughout that time period, constituencies were almost never drawn to cross counties (in England, at least). Hence each county must have a whole number of constituencies. If a constituency has an electorate between 1 and 2 times the electoral quota, then intuitively it must have 1 or 2 seats*. It is also intuitive that the threshold to go from 1 to 2 seats is 1.5. However if you do the maths, then this isn't quite the case with such a rule. The threshold instead becomes the point where the electorate of each seat is as close to the threshold as possible. If we have a county which is 4/3 (1.333...) times the quota, then 1 seat (4/3 quotas per seat) or 2 seats (2/3 of a quota per seat) are both exactly 1/3 away from the quota. Hence this becomes the (it also turns out that this is the harmonic mean, rather than arithmetic mean of 1 and 2) threshold. This discrepancy becomes less significant quite quickly with increased county size, but nonetheless it is thought to have contributed to a steady increase in the size of the House of Commons - the quota is calculated as total electorate/no. of seats, and when distributing to counties, rounding up was more likely than rounding down. It was noticed at the time, but mathematician Charles Dodgson, perhaps better known as Lewis Carroll, (incorrectly) refuted that there was an issue. Source: www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S089571770800191X*While it is intuitive this part is also generally not considered to be true to get the ideal apportionment, although this is only really a problem if an area is entitled to a large number of seats. This rule is the Quota rule, and the Highest Averages method used for most apportionments/PR elections doesn't necessarily satisfy it
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Dec 9, 2018 20:37:52 GMT
From 1917 until quite recently, UK constituency boundary rules stated that: "Each vote shall, as far as possible, command an equal share of representation in the House of Commons" The problem with that is that you would have to create bigger constituencies for areas of low turnout so the (low number of) votes have equality. Or have fractional MPs. Sheffield Hallam would have 1.2 MPs and Sheffield Brightside would have 0.8 MPs.
(As you used quotation marks I'm assuming that is an actual quotation rather than your paraphrasing/reinterpretation.)
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Dec 10, 2018 2:23:22 GMT
From 1917 until quite recently, UK constituency boundary rules stated that: "Each vote shall, as far as possible, command an equal share of representation in the House of Commons" Throughout that time period, constituencies were almost never drawn to cross counties (in England, at least). How about Rutland and Stamford 1918-83 and Rutland and Melton 1983 to present? Or Leominster 1997-2010? Boothferry 1983-1997 and Brigg & Goole 1997-present?? Even Stockton South, Halton, Warrington South and Westmorland & Lonsdale from 1983 to the present day?? Before 1983 you have a good case for the 'almost never' remark, but since then it seems it's been open season on crossing county borders.
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Post by John Chanin on Dec 10, 2018 7:53:33 GMT
From 1917 until quite recently, UK constituency boundary rules stated that: "Each vote shall, as far as possible, command an equal share of representation in the House of Commons" Throughout that time period, constituencies were almost never drawn to cross counties (in England, at least). How about Rutland and Stamford 1918-83 and Rutland and Melton 1983 to present? Or Leominster 1997-2010? Boothferry 1983-1997 and Brigg & Goole 1997-present?? Even Stockton South, Halton, Warrington South and Westmorland & Lonsdale from 1983 to the present day?? Before 1983 you have a good case for the 'almost never' remark, but since then it seems it's been open season on crossing county borders. It depends what you mean by a county, and your definition is antediluvian
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Post by yellowperil on Dec 10, 2018 8:14:07 GMT
How about Rutland and Stamford 1918-83 and Rutland and Melton 1983 to present? Or Leominster 1997-2010? Boothferry 1983-1997 and Brigg & Goole 1997-present?? Even Stockton South, Halton, Warrington South and Westmorland & Lonsdale from 1983 to the present day?? Before 1983 you have a good case for the 'almost never' remark, but since then it seems it's been open season on crossing county borders. It depends what you mean by a county, and your definition is antediluvian A definition of county from Foggy is always going to be antediluvian, but then in his bit of Somerset the Flood wasn't very long ago.
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Post by greatkingrat on Dec 10, 2018 9:47:18 GMT
I'm surprised Foggy didn't go back to 1832, when most of the detached parts of counties were moved to constituencies in the surrounding county.
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 10, 2018 9:55:52 GMT
I'm surprised Foggy didn't go back to 1832, when most of the detached parts of counties were moved to constituencies in the surrounding county. or 1066.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2018 11:07:21 GMT
In terms of negative personal vote, Alan Meale?
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 10, 2018 11:17:26 GMT
In terms of negative personal vote, Alan Meale? <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22000000000003px; height: 3.0400000000000063px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_5756118" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1640px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_80927205" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 92px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_951472" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1640px; top: 92px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_10970428" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> While I know what you mean, he was an MP for twenty years and what did for him in the end was probably a combination of Brexit and social change rather than any objection to the man himself.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2018 11:20:01 GMT
In terms of negative personal vote, Alan Meale? <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22000000000003px; height: 3.0400000000000063px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_5756118" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1640px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_80927205" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 92px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_951472" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1640px; top: 92px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_10970428" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> While I know what you mean, he was an MP for twenty years and what did for him in the end was probably a combination of Brexit and social change rather than any objection to the man himself. The swing in Mansfield was notably higher than a lot of seats with comparable Leave and UKIP votes.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Dec 10, 2018 11:42:25 GMT
In terms of negative personal vote, Alan Meale? An end to the Meale ticket?
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Dec 10, 2018 16:22:26 GMT
In terms of negative personal vote, Alan Meale? While I know what you mean, he was an MP for twenty years and what did for him in the end was probably a combination of Brexit and social change rather than any objection to the man himself. Would you say there was a similar story with David Winnick & Walsall North?
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Dec 10, 2018 16:30:53 GMT
In terms of negative personal vote, Alan Meale? <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22000000000003px; height: 3.0400000000000063px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_5756118" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1640px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_80927205" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 92px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_951472" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1640px; top: 92px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_10970428" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> While I know what you mean, he was an MP for twenty years and what did for him in the end was probably a combination of Brexit and social change rather than any objection to the man himself. Thirty years, in fact. Amazingly obscure throughout it all it seems.
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 10, 2018 16:33:47 GMT
<iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22000000000003px; height: 3.0400000000000063px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_5756118" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1640px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_80927205" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 92px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_951472" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> <iframe style="position: absolute; width: 34.22px; height: 3.04px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 1640px; top: 92px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_10970428" scrolling="no" width="34.22000000000003" height="3.0400000000000063"></iframe> While I know what you mean, he was an MP for twenty years and what did for him in the end was probably a combination of Brexit and social change rather than any objection to the man himself. Thirty years, in fact. Amazingly obscure throughout it all it seems. true, losing the ability to count.
He was a reasonably famous figure (at least within labour) at the beginning for reasons connected with the Miners strike, but nothing much since. I remember raising an eyebrow when he accepted a knighthood.
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