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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 12, 2013 23:54:48 GMT
In Monmouth in 1992, the electorate was 59,147 and total votes were 50,907, a turnout of 86.1%.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 13, 2013 0:02:30 GMT
The only place I know of which published the 1987 notional results for the two new Milton Keynes seats in 1992 was the ITN guide to the 1992 election. Three seats were affected - Buckingham as well. The notional 1987 results are included by implication in 'Britain Votes 5' and 'British General Election Results 1983-97' by Rallings and Thrasher (in the sense of the real 1992 result being compared to the notional 1987 result). The actual notional 1987 results, in the format of a percentage of the vote to one decimal place, are in 'Parliamentary Constituencies and the 1990/1 Local Elections' by the same authors. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 13, 2013 0:29:05 GMT
Off the top of my head: Leonard James Callaghan James Gordon WilsonJames Ramsey MacDonald Andrew Bonar Law Asquith was usually known as H.H. Asquith Are you conflating James Gordon Brown and James Harold Wilson? Going off on a tangent, the Duke of Windsor (as he then wasn't yet) went from using his 7th given name to using his 1st when he went from Prince of Wales to King (Edward Albert Christian George Andrew Patrick David). |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 13, 2013 0:46:00 GMT
The only place I know of which published the 1987 notional results for the two new Milton Keynes seats in 1992 was the ITN guide to the 1992 election. This is a snapshot of the relevant page from GoogleBooks: imageshack.us/photo/my-images/850/gb77.png/I have often wondered, but never known: what would have been the electorate of the old Milton Keynes constituency in 1992 if it had still been intact? |
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Post by Deleted on Jul 13, 2013 7:16:53 GMT
I wonder the same about the Huntingdon of 1983-1997 which gave John Major over 48,000 votes in 1992.
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Post by Philip Davies on Jul 13, 2013 9:26:18 GMT
Off the top of my head: Leonard James Callaghan James Gordon WilsonJames Ramsey MacDonald Andrew Bonar Law Asquith was usually known as H.H. Asquith Are you conflating James Gordon Brown and James Harold Wilson? Going off on a tangent, the Duke of Windsor (as he then wasn't yet) went from using his 7th given name to using his 1st when he went from Prince of Wales to King (Edward Albert Christian George Andrew Patrick David). Yes I meant James Gordon Brown! |
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Post by Philip Davies on Jul 13, 2013 9:47:11 GMT
We can work it out from the electorates of the two seats that were divided into three:
1987
Buckingham 70,036 (IIRC it included Wolverton and Stony Stratford)
Milton Keynes 97,041
1992
Buckingham 56,064
Milton Keynes NE 63,545
Milton Keynes SW 67,365
So if the old Buckingham seat had zero electorate growth then the old MK's electorate would've been 116,938.
But Buckingham had grown from 62,758 in 1983 to 70,036 in 1987 so it no doubt would've kept growing so the 116k figure above is an over-estimate. I would guess something more like 112K.
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 13, 2013 9:58:48 GMT
Other current examples are
George Iain Duncan Smith
John Vincent Cable
Walter Menzies Campbell
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Post by timokane on Jul 13, 2013 11:14:02 GMT
We had John Calvin Coolidge and before him Thomas Woodrow Wilson, which additionally means that the only surname common to both an American President and a British Prime Minister was accompanied by a middle name.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 13, 2013 15:31:46 GMT
The only place I know of which published the 1987 notional results for the two new Milton Keynes seats in 1992 was the ITN guide to the 1992 election. Three seats were affected - Buckingham as well. The notional 1987 results are included by implication in 'Britain Votes 5' and 'British General Election Results 1983-97' by Rallings and Thrasher (in the sense of the real 1992 result being compared to the notional 1987 result). The actual notional 1987 results, in the format of a percentage of the vote to one decimal place, are in 'Parliamentary Constituencies and the 1990/1 Local Elections' by the same authors. The 1992 ITN guide also gives the notional 1987 Buckingham result: Con 61.4%, Alliance 26.7%, Lab 11.9%. The actual 1987 Buckingham result was as follows: Con 58.6%, Alliance 24.9%, Lab 16.5%. Just to confirm, the 1987 Milton Keynes result was: Con 47.8%, Alliance 29.3%, Lab 21.8%, Green 1.1%. The notional results for the two new Milton Keynes seats were as follows: Milton Keynes NE: Con 48.5%, Alliance 33.6%, Lab 15.9%, Others 2.0% Milton Keynes SW: Con 48.0%, Lab 29.9%, Alliance 22.1%. Looks like the whole of the Green vote in Milton Keynes in 1987 was allocated to Milton Keynes NE, which is a bit unlikely. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 13, 2013 15:34:13 GMT
I wish they'd given the notional results in terms of votes because I need those for the 1992 running totals spreadsheet. I'll have to estimate them using the percentages.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 13, 2013 15:44:26 GMT
I wonder the same about the Huntingdon of 1983-1997 which gave John Major over 48,000 votes in 1992. I think the 1983-97 Huntingdon constituency included most of the Huntingdonshire council area apart from St Neots. If so it would be possible to work out what the electorate would be. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 13, 2013 20:20:56 GMT
I wonder the same about the Huntingdon of 1983-1997 which gave John Major over 48,000 votes in 1992. The electorate was 92,913. We know this because the seat was still intact then. The electorate now would be about 110,000 |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 13, 2013 22:37:17 GMT
Just noticed that in 1992 in Meirionnydd Nant Conwy the Greens stood a candidate who received 471 votes. I'm surprised because I thought there was some kind of pact between Plaid Cymru and the Greens that year.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 14, 2013 0:09:04 GMT
Just noticed that in 1992 in Meirionnydd Nant Conwy the Greens stood a candidate who received 471 votes. I'm surprised because I thought there was some kind of pact between Plaid Cymru and the Greens that year. Not Wales-wide. It covered Gwent only. In Ceredigion the local Green Party branch endorsed the Plaid Cymru candidate and that may have been the case elsewhere as well. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 16, 2013 0:53:00 GMT
Been taking a look at the 1983 results compared to the 1979 notionals and in Wolverhampton the change in the Labour shares were as follows:
Wolv' NE: -8.88%
Wolv' SE: -11.15%
Wolv' SW: -4.75%
The small drop in SW looks a bit odd. Maybe the notional calculations were a bit off there.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 16, 2013 7:44:11 GMT
I don't think the boundary changes were all that significant were they? I would suggest two other more likely explanations. Firstly that the other two seats contain a far greater number of swing voters while SW is comprised of two fairly monolithic blocs and secondly that the Labour bloc in SW was at that time starting to grow due to demographic change
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 27, 2013 1:05:48 GMT
I'm trying to do the order of declarations for the 1983 election and have had a massive problem with Bournemouth West.
Now, Bournemouth East flashed up on the screen on the BBC's programme in the middle of the night at number 397, but it seemed like Bournemouth West wasn't flashed up for some reason.
Imagine my surprise, then, when it flashes up on the next day coverage at about 1:20 in the afternoon.
Why on earth would this be the case? Usually all of the constituencies within a particular council area declare either during the night or on the next day.
It's certainly wasted me a lot of time because I thought I must have missed it during the night-time coverage and have been winding the tape backwards and forwards to try to locate it.
(There is maybe a slight possibility that Bournemouth West actually did declare during the night but got stuck in the BBC's computer system for about 12 hours).
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 27, 2013 8:24:58 GMT
I'm trying to do the order of declarations for the 1983 election and have had a massive problem with Bournemouth West. Now, Bournemouth East flashed up on the screen on the BBC's programme in the middle of the night at number 397, but it seemed like Bournemouth West wasn't flashed up for some reason. Imagine my surprise, then, when it flashes up on the next day coverage at about 1:20 in the afternoon. Why on earth would this be the case? Usually all of the constituencies within a particular council area declare either during the night or on the next day. It's certainly wasted me a lot of time because I thought I must have missed it during the night-time coverage and have been winding the tape backwards and forwards to try to locate it. (There is maybe a slight possibility that Bournemouth West actually did declare during the night but got stuck in the BBC's computer system for about 12 hours). I can tell you that the "General Election Constituency Guide" for the 1987 election, published by BBC TV Current Affairs Group and News Information for internal use, states that Bournemouth East's declaration time in 1983 was 01:59, and Bournemouth West's was 13:19. |
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Post by erlend on Jul 27, 2013 8:51:19 GMT
I think I have spotted the cause. A recount!
Labour got 12.48% of the vote and therefore just lost their deposit.
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