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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jul 7, 2024 8:37:52 GMT
Three members of the Benn family have now served in the Cabinet under all seven Labour PMs.
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Post by arnieg on Jul 7, 2024 10:01:39 GMT
I saw an interesting graphic that showed the 23-24 Football league had 55 teams in Labour seats and 37 Tory. The 24-25 equivalent is: 83 Labour 4 Ind (Arsenal, Villa, Blackburn and Leicester City - curiously I was involved in planning approval for two of these) 4 Lib Dem (Wimbledon, Sutton, Harrogate and Cheltenham) 1 Con (New members Bromley) I thought Sutton were relegated? They were. Just shows I follow politics more closely than football. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 10:24:15 GMT
Three members of the Benn family have now served in the Cabinet under all seven Labour PMs. Ugh. In a country of 67 million people. what a fucking joke. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2024 10:37:24 GMT
That's a somewhat extreme reaction to a rather quaint little factoid. If that sort of thing happened on a more regular basis, then you might have a point.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 7, 2024 10:50:23 GMT
I think that Salisbury is the only Conservative constituency to be completely surrounded by other Conservative constituencies.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 7, 2024 11:20:14 GMT
The Reform Party had an explicit electoral pact with the SDP in Sheffield, where there were SDP candidates in all Sheffield constituencies. I'm not sure if the electoral pact officially also applied to the other constituencies with no Reform candidates. But anyway: Votes for the SDP in constituencies with no Reform candidate:
1,960 Doncaster North
1,874 Leeds South
1,835 Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East
1,453 Sheffield South East
1,437 Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough
1,211 Hexham
1,061 Dorset Mid & Poole North
784 Earley & Woodley
784 Brighton Kemptown & Peacehaven
656 Sheffield Central
650 Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge
594 Sheffield Heeley
555 Bristol East
518 Maidenhead
281 Sheffield Hallam
232 Oxford East
In constituencies with Reform candidates, the SDP had a handful of candidates with c.300 - 500 votes each, but otherwise the vast majority of SDP candidates got fewer than 300 votes each.
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 7, 2024 11:49:37 GMT
If we did vote via AV the 2024 Con total would be nearer to the 1997 FPTP total however the 1997 figure would be closer to the 2024 '121' (120-130 Con seats were calculated at the time).
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jul 7, 2024 11:51:10 GMT
I think that Salisbury is the only Conservative constituency to be completely surrounded by other Conservative constituencies. So far as I can see, you're right! Though there are several more cases where a Conservative constituency borders only one non-Conservative constituency, sometimes with a very short border. Though there do seem to be three Liberal Democrat constituencies (Harrogate & Knaresborough, Chelmsford, and Tunbridge Wells) completely surrounded by Conservative constituencies. And I am totally losing count of the number of Labour constituencies completely surrounded by Conservative ones. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jul 7, 2024 12:00:28 GMT
If we did vote via AV the 2024 Con total would be nearer to the 1997 FPTP total however the 1997 figure would be closer to the 2024 '121' (120-130 Con seats were calculated at the time). Be careful. It's possibly that, with AV, Independents win 11 seats or so (and the Workers' Party might have won up to three). E.g. Bradford West or Bethnal Green. |
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Post by Peter Wilkinson on Jul 7, 2024 12:41:11 GMT
*Longish tweet snipped - it should be showing a couple of posts above this one* If we did vote via AV the 2024 Con total would be nearer to the 1997 FPTP total however the 1997 figure would be closer to the 2024 '121' (120-130 Con seats were calculated at the time). I'm mildly curious about what assumptions are being made about the distribution of lower preferences, but the figures at least look plausible enough for the assumptions to be reasonable. As someone who happily voted for AV in 2011 (partly because, in situations like 1997 and this one, it does tend to establish whether a party with a low percentage plurality has enough grudging support from minority party voters to be at least preferred on balance over the likely main alternative), I can of course now ask whether you wouldn't have preferred Thursday's election to be run under AV rather than FPTP?  Though I can contentedly note that the AV figures as given would still have provided Labour with a comfortable majority. The difference between how AV would have worked this time as against how it would have worked in 1997 is presumably that Reform got a far higher vote this time than Referendum did in 1997, giving your party far more likely transfers, which would more than compensate for your distinctly lower first preferences? |
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Post by edgbaston on Jul 7, 2024 12:48:48 GMT
The Reform Party had an explicit electoral pact with the SDP in Sheffield, where there were SDP candidates in all Sheffield constituencies. I'm not sure if the electoral pact officially also applied to the other constituencies with no Reform candidates. But anyway: Votes for the SDP in constituencies with no Reform candidate: 1,960 Doncaster North 1,874 Leeds South 1,835 Middlesbrough South & Cleveland East 1,453 Sheffield South East 1,437 Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough 1,211 Hexham 1,061 Dorset Mid & Poole North 784 Earley & Woodley 784 Brighton Kemptown & Peacehaven 656 Sheffield Central 650 Stone, Great Wyrley & Penkridge 594 Sheffield Heeley 555 Bristol East 518 Maidenhead 281 Sheffield Hallam 232 Oxford East In constituencies with Reform candidates, the SDP had a handful of candidates with c.300 - 500 votes each, but otherwise the vast majority of SDP candidates got fewer than 300 votes each. Can’t think why Reform agreed to this. South Yorks is one of the areas UKIP did best in, the SDP barely fought a campaign in most of them in return. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 7, 2024 13:50:22 GMT
*Longish tweet snipped - it should be showing a couple of posts above this one* If we did vote via AV the 2024 Con total would be nearer to the 1997 FPTP total however the 1997 figure would be closer to the 2024 '121' (120-130 Con seats were calculated at the time). I'm mildly curious about what assumptions are being made about the distribution of lower preferences, but the figures at least look plausible enough for the assumptions to be reasonable. As someone who happily voted for AV in 2011 (partly because, in situations like 1997 and this one, it does tend to establish whether a party with a low percentage plurality has enough grudging support from minority party voters to be at least preferred on balance over the likely main alternative), I can of course now ask whether you wouldn't have preferred Thursday's election to be run under AV rather than FTPT? Though I can contentedly not that the AV figures as given would still have provided Labour with a comfortable majority. The difference between how AV would have worked this time as against how it would have worked in 1997 is presumably that Reform got a far higher vote this time than Referendum did in 1997, giving your party far more likely transfers, which would more than compensate for your distinctly lower first preferences? Dylan has calculated the figures by using the latest BES second/lower preferences data. Not perfect but all we have unless a pollster provides something to the contrary. I did not vote for AV and although these figures look beneficial for my side they do not change my mind but are interesting to view. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,967
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 7, 2024 13:53:31 GMT
William Clouston is based in South Yorkshire isn't he?
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 7, 2024 13:54:11 GMT
I think that Salisbury is the only Conservative constituency to be completely surrounded by other Conservative constituencies. You've missed a few. |
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,847 
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Post by Crimson King on Jul 7, 2024 14:09:45 GMT
some of those border the sea which may be relevant
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Post by greatkingrat on Jul 7, 2024 14:15:53 GMT
Wyre Forest has a very short border with Labour Redditch.
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Post by johnloony on Jul 7, 2024 17:44:55 GMT
I think that Salisbury is the only Conservative constituency to be completely surrounded by other Conservative constituencies. You've missed a few. Just because the sea is blue, doesn't mean it's a Conservative constituency |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 7, 2024 17:48:52 GMT
William Clouston is based in South Yorkshire isn't he? The SDP has gone through several weird regenerations over the last 36 years, and at one stage it was almost all a load of UKIP defectors in Sheffield. Don't know if Clouston was one of them. |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 7, 2024 17:51:32 GMT
Just because the sea is blue, doesn't mean it's a Conservative constituency And Torbay is nowhere near the Yellow Sea. |
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cathyc
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,160
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Post by cathyc on Jul 7, 2024 17:53:51 GMT
Just because the sea is blue, doesn't mean it's a Conservative constituency Lots of the seas around the UK are a pale sludgy brown. |
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Though I can contentedly note that the AV figures as given would still have provided Labour with a comfortable majority.
