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Post by jm on Jun 19, 2024 11:35:33 GMT
Which raises the question, if I was nominated as a proxy for someone that died before election day, would I have committed an offence if a) I voted knowing they had died, or b) I had not heard news of their death. I am aware of a somewhat similar case - during the 2015 GE, the partner of a party member returned their postal ballot paper and then died very suddenly around 24 hours after posting it. The RO ruled that it must be counted as it had been properly completed and received by the RO during the time the elector was still alive, and there were no legal grounds for the PV to be rejected. This person therefore had their vote counted despite dying two weeks before polling day! Considering the age profile of most postal voters, I imagine there must be a handful of similar cases of people dying in the intervening period between returning their postal vote and polling day, although in most cases the RO is probably not notified of their death until after the election. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 19, 2024 11:42:14 GMT
This person therefore had their vote counted despite dying two weeks before polling day! Considering the age profile of most postal voters, I imagine there must be a handful of similar cases of people dying in the intervening period between returning their postal vote and polling day, although in most cases the RO is probably not notified of their death until after the election. That is absolutely fine, the vote was cast by a living breathing person within the permitted period. If someone cast their vote on 4th July then got hit by a car and killed when leaving the polling station, their ballot won't be fished out of the box and discarded. |
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 19, 2024 12:18:06 GMT
A postal vote is slightly different (is it not) from a proxy vote though? The Postal vote was cast by a living breathing person at the time. In the proxy vote scenario, the proxee (if that's even a word) wouldnt be, they would not be a living,breathing person at the time their proxy turned up at the polling station to cast their vote.
Also, can you imagine if a seat had a margin of 1 vote and the proxy vote scenario happened? I can imagine this being like Winchester 1997 all over again!
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batman
Labour
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2024 12:20:30 GMT
Which raises the question, if I was nominated as a proxy for someone that died before election day, would I have committed an offence if a) I voted knowing they had died, or b) I had not heard news of their death. I am aware of a somewhat similar case - during the 2015 GE, the partner of a party member returned their postal ballot paper and then died very suddenly around 24 hours after posting it. The RO ruled that it must be counted as it had been properly completed and received by the RO during the time the elector was still alive, and there were no legal grounds for the PV to be rejected. This person therefore had their vote counted despite dying two weeks before polling day! Considering the age profile of most postal voters, I imagine there must be a handful of similar cases of people dying in the intervening period between returning their postal vote and polling day, although in most cases the RO is probably not notified of their death until after the election. a friend of mine died a couple of weeks before the May GLA & Mayoral elections (although his funeral is actually today, a very long delay to hold it - we are going to form a guard of honour for his coffin with our cricket bats). Since he had been a very active member of the Labour Party until illness overtook him, it's extremely likely that he voted by post before he passed away. |
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Jun 19, 2024 14:59:25 GMT
How about if a postal vote was completed but not posted, the voter died, and then a relative posted it after they had died? Is marking the ballot paper or putting it in the post box the point that the vote has been cast?
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Jun 19, 2024 15:16:52 GMT
How about if a postal vote was completed but not posted, the voter died, and then a relative posted it after they had died? Is marking the ballot paper or putting it in the post box the point that the vote has been cast? Prove the voter didn't post it! It's impossible. Making your point moot. |
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 19, 2024 15:22:41 GMT
How about if a postal vote was completed but not posted, the voter died, and then a relative posted it after they had died? Is marking the ballot paper or putting it in the post box the point that the vote has been cast? This is turning into a very niche article in the next issue of "Electoral Trivia" quarterly. 
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Post by johnloony on Jun 19, 2024 15:39:13 GMT
How about if a postal vote was completed but not posted, the voter died, and then a relative posted it after they had died? Is marking the ballot paper or putting it in the post box the point that the vote has been cast? This is turning into a very niche article in the next issue of "Electoral Trivia" quarterly. A postal vote is counted only after it has been verified, i.e.the date of birth and signature checked. It doesn’t matter when it was marked, or the envelope sealed, or posted. |
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Post by iainbhx on Jun 20, 2024 21:07:25 GMT
How about if a postal vote was completed but not posted, the voter died, and then a relative posted it after they had died? Is marking the ballot paper or putting it in the post box the point that the vote has been cast? This is turning into a very niche article in the next issue of "Electoral Trivia" quarterly. But isn't that what it is all about. In 2006, my proposer died after the close of nominations but before polling day. Made no difference to the valid nomination. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 20, 2024 21:18:42 GMT
How about if a postal vote was completed but not posted, the voter died, and then a relative posted it after they had died? Is marking the ballot paper or putting it in the post box the point that the vote has been cast? The vote was validly cast. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2024 2:42:30 GMT
The MPs from the London Borough of Redbridge could go from all white men to fully ethnic minority if Jas Athwal, Leanne Mohamed, and Faiza Shaheen (unlikely) win.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2024 10:50:46 GMT
There are two unlikelies in that list, not just one.
In fact it is quite likely that "Gaza Independents" have little chance of winning anywhere - with maybe the sole exception of Batley and Dewsbury.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2024 12:15:42 GMT
There are two unlikelies in that list, not just one. In fact it is quite likely that "Gaza Independents" have little chance of winning anywhere - with maybe the sole exception of Batley and Dewsbury. I think Leanne Mohamed has a chance. It's a very active campaign and Wes Streeting now stands out in that seat like a sore thumb. I don't do identity politics, but I don't pretend it's not going to help Mrs Mohamed in that constituency. Streeting just seems like an AI generated politician. He's been through a rough spell but still. |
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Post by therealriga on Jun 22, 2024 12:19:29 GMT
The aggregate candidates leaderboard for 2024 is now as follows: | Constituency | Total # of candidates since 1983 | Average # of candidates per general election | | Hackney South & Shoreditch | 91 | 8.27 | | Bethnal Green & Stepney/Bow | 85 | 7.73 | | Cities of London & Westminster | 83 | 7.54 | | Oxford East | 81 | 7.36 | | Sheffield Central | 80 | 7.27 | | (Camberwell &) Peckham | 80 | 7.27 | | Holborn & St Pancras | 79 | 7.18 | | Cardiff Central/East | 76 | 6.91 | | Uxbridge & South Ruislip | 75 | 6.82 | | (Windsor &) Maidenhead | 75 | 6.82 |
Vauxhall (& Camberwell Green) also has an aggregate total of 75 but I have relegated it from this leaderboard because only 6 candidates are standing in that constituency this year, compared to 7 in Maidenhead and 8 in Uxbridge & South Ruislip. Sorry, but that doesn't look right. "Since 1983" is unclear as to whether it includes the 1983 election or not, but even ignoring that, for Hackney South the number of candidates has been: 1983: 9 1987: 4 1992: 5 1997: 9 2001: 7 2005: 8 2010: 12 2015: 11 2017: 10 2019: 6 2024: 7 which totals to 88, not 91. I count 83 for Bethnal Green in that time period, not 85. You're also missing Belfast South which has had 76 in that time period. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 22, 2024 12:21:46 GMT
There are two unlikelies in that list, not just one. In fact it is quite likely that "Gaza Independents" have little chance of winning anywhere - with maybe the sole exception of Batley and Dewsbury. I think Leanne Mohamed has a chance. It's a very active campaign and Wes Streeting now stands out in that seat like a sore thumb. I don't do identity politics, but I don't pretend it's not going to help Mrs Mohamed in that constituency. Streeting just seems like an AI generated politician. He's been through a rough spell but still. If there had been an equivalent of this forum (Vote-1962?) around for the 1966 Hull North byelection, I bet you'd have been telling us that Richard Gott is really going to cut through and win against the identikit Labour candidate. In 2010 you'd probably have been telling us Tamsin Omond was making a real impact in Hampstead and Kilburn. Have a look at the typical electoral performance of much-hyped Independent candidates some day, won't you? |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2024 12:23:35 GMT
I think Leanne Mohamed has a chance. It's a very active campaign and Wes Streeting now stands out in that seat like a sore thumb. I don't do identity politics, but I don't pretend it's not going to help Mrs Mohamed in that constituency. Streeting just seems like an AI generated politician. He's been through a rough spell but still. If there had been an equivalent of this forum (Vote-1962?) around for the 1966 Hull North byelection, I bet you'd have been telling us that Richard Gott is really going to cut through and win against the identikit Labour candidate. In 2010 you'd probably have been telling us Tamsin Omond was making a real impact in Hampstead and Kilburn. Have a look at the typical electoral performance of much-hyped Independent candidates some day, won't you? I feel that Labour will do as well in London as they did in 2005 (doing much better in the seats covered by West Central and Merton & Wandsworth, but worse out in Harrow, Hillingdon etc), but match or exceed 1997 in the rest of the country. I was thinking Ilford North could be like Bethnal Green & Bow 2005 rather than a by-election that happened in the 60s. Obviously Galloway was an MP elsewhere before that, but still. I can't speak for voting intentions where you are, but Muslim voters can be quote volatile at times. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 22, 2024 12:23:36 GMT
The aggregate candidates leaderboard for 2024 is now as follows: | Constituency | Total # of candidates since 1983 | Average # of candidates per general election | | Hackney South & Shoreditch | 91 | 8.27 | | Bethnal Green & Stepney/Bow | 85 | 7.73 | | Cities of London & Westminster | 83 | 7.54 | | Oxford East | 81 | 7.36 | | Sheffield Central | 80 | 7.27 | | (Camberwell &) Peckham | 80 | 7.27 | | Holborn & St Pancras | 79 | 7.18 | | Cardiff Central/East | 76 | 6.91 | | Uxbridge & South Ruislip | 75 | 6.82 | | (Windsor &) Maidenhead | 75 | 6.82 |
Vauxhall (& Camberwell Green) also has an aggregate total of 75 but I have relegated it from this leaderboard because only 6 candidates are standing in that constituency this year, compared to 7 in Maidenhead and 8 in Uxbridge & South Ruislip. Sorry, but that doesn't look right. "Since 1983" is unclear as to whether it includes the 1983 election or not, but even ignoring that, for Hackney South the number of candidates has been: 1983: 9 1987: 4 1992: 5 1997: 9 2001: 7 2005: 8 2010: 12 2015: 11 2017: 10 2019: 6 2024: 7 which totals to 88, not 91. I count 83 for Bethnal Green in that time period, not 85. You're also missing Belfast South which has had 76 in that time period. I have excluded Northern Irish constituencies from this leaderboard because of their differing party system to Britain, which naturally accounts for artificially high candidate numbers. |
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Post by therealriga on Jun 22, 2024 19:26:20 GMT
Sorry, but that doesn't look right. "Since 1983" is unclear as to whether it includes the 1983 election or not, but even ignoring that, for Hackney South the number of candidates has been: 1983: 9 1987: 4 1992: 5 1997: 9 2001: 7 2005: 8 2010: 12 2015: 11 2017: 10 2019: 6 2024: 7 which totals to 88, not 91. I count 83 for Bethnal Green in that time period, not 85. You're also missing Belfast South which has had 76 in that time period. I have excluded Northern Irish constituencies from this leaderboard because of their differing party system to Britain, which naturally accounts for artificially high candidate numbers. Ok, I guess, but you may want to do a recount of the Great Britain ones, as your numbers seem out in some cases. |
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batman
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Post by batman on Jun 22, 2024 19:55:24 GMT
There are two unlikelies in that list, not just one. In fact it is quite likely that "Gaza Independents" have little chance of winning anywhere - with maybe the sole exception of Batley and Dewsbury. I think Leanne Mohamed has a chance. It's a very active campaign and Wes Streeting now stands out in that seat like a sore thumb. I don't do identity politics, but I don't pretend it's not going to help Mrs Mohamed in that constituency. Streeting just seems like an AI generated politician. He's been through a rough spell but still. Your main problem is that you blithely assume that all Muslims are going to vote either for the Workers' Party or for pro-Gaza independents. In the case of Ilford North, you go even further; you think that basically Mohamed gets every single Muslim vote & then 5% on top of that. In fact we all know that a very large proportion of the Muslim population will continue to vote Labour, although it is likely to be some way down on the last two elections. Streeting has been the incumbent MP for 9 years and was a high-profile local councillor in the borough before that. He has also been a member of the Labour Friends of Palestine group in parliament; he is not some Likudnik in the Labour Party as some like to portray him. He is not Luke Akehurst (even Luke isn't a Likudnik, though I strongly disagree with large parts of his record on Israel). On top of the fact that Wes Streeting is a strong local incumbent, it has apparently escaped your attention that Labour's national vote share is almost a third as much again on average, and that there is a major, in fact humungous, nationwide swing from the Conservatives to Labour. On top of that, some of the Tory support in Ilford North is going to be above-averagely attracted to Reform, especially in Hainault ward which has in the (albeit fairly distant now) past elected a BNP councillor. And yet you bizarrely continue to think that Wes Streeting - who, I must emphasize, is very far indeed from being one of my favourite Labour politicians - is going to lose his seat. I really don't think you understand the constituency at all. You see the increased Muslim vote, which is undeniable, and think that none of it will go to Streeting. It just is not the case, not remotely. Mohamed may do a bit better than some independents but she has absolutely no chance of embarrassing Streeting. And finally, perhaps you ought to note that we Labour Party members in London are, not quite bombarded, but in receipt of huge number of communications from the Party, via e-mail, by post, and for quite a lot of us in WhatsApp groups. I as a JLM member am also receiving numerous e-mails about the constituencies in London they are canvassing in. You can be very, very sure that if there were the remotest perception that Wes Streeting is in trouble we would be being urged to get over there & canvass for him. But there are no such appeals, indeed nobody is even casually saying anything about this in Party circles. Some of us have a pretty good idea what is going on on the ground in a number of constituencies, and if there were any serious threat to Wes Streeting, you can bet your bottom dollar that I would have heard about it by now, and so would any active Labour Party member in & around London. |
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Post by Deleted on Jun 23, 2024 2:20:29 GMT
I think Leanne Mohamed has a chance. It's a very active campaign and Wes Streeting now stands out in that seat like a sore thumb. I don't do identity politics, but I don't pretend it's not going to help Mrs Mohamed in that constituency. Streeting just seems like an AI generated politician. He's been through a rough spell but still. Your main problem is that you blithely assume that all Muslims are going to vote either for the Workers' Party or for pro-Gaza independents. In the case of Ilford North, you go even further; you think that basically Mohamed gets every single Muslim vote & then 5% on top of that. In fact we all know that a very large proportion of the Muslim population will continue to vote Labour, although it is likely to be some way down on the last two elections. Streeting has been the incumbent MP for 9 years and was a high-profile local councillor in the borough before that. He has also been a member of the Labour Friends of Palestine group in parliament; he is not some Likudnik in the Labour Party as some like to portray him. He is not Luke Akehurst (even Luke isn't a Likudnik, though I strongly disagree with large parts of his record on Israel). On top of the fact that Wes Streeting is a strong local incumbent, it has apparently escaped your attention that Labour's national vote share is almost a third as much again on average, and that there is a major, in fact humungous, nationwide swing from the Conservatives to Labour. On top of that, some of the Tory support in Ilford North is going to be above-averagely attracted to Reform, especially in Hainault ward which has in the (albeit fairly distant now) past elected a BNP councillor. And yet you bizarrely continue to think that Wes Streeting - who, I must emphasize, is very far indeed from being one of my favourite Labour politicians - is going to lose his seat. I really don't think you understand the constituency at all. You see the increased Muslim vote, which is undeniable, and think that none of it will go to Streeting. It just is not the case, not remotely. Mohamed may do a bit better than some independents but she has absolutely no chance of embarrassing Streeting. And finally, perhaps you ought to note that we Labour Party members in London are, not quite bombarded, but in receipt of huge number of communications from the Party, via e-mail, by post, and for quite a lot of us in WhatsApp groups. I as a JLM member am also receiving numerous e-mails about the constituencies in London they are canvassing in. You can be very, very sure that if there were the remotest perception that Wes Streeting is in trouble we would be being urged to get over there & canvass for him. But there are no such appeals, indeed nobody is even casually saying anything about this in Party circles. Some of us have a pretty good idea what is going on on the ground in a number of constituencies, and if there were any serious threat to Wes Streeting, you can bet your bottom dollar that I would have heard about it by now, and so would any active Labour Party member in & around London. Perhaps, although attractive young female > Wes Streeting lol. I still see it as a sleeper flip because if you think Mrs Mohamed's campaign is just about Gaza, you're wrong. It challenges Streeting's stances on the NHS and apparent indifference to the private sector's present and future role in the health service. It is not just Gaza. Of course, playing devil's advocate, the conclusion could also be that Ilford North is a goner and that your efforts should be in Chelsea & Fulham, Cities of London & Westminster and Kensington & Bayswater. It may have dawned on some that a lily-white neo-Blairite (he gives the impression he could be the lovechild of Blair and Brown) might well struggle against a far-left Muslim candidate in such a seat that's changed radically (heck, even the 2021 census data is slightly out of date now and the Muslim population will likely be higher, especially in the wards astride the A10 and bordering Sam Tarry's seat. No offence, but I think Hainault has changed a helluva lot since the BNP won there, and indeed, the BNP winning was a reaction to that change rather than a pointer to the enduring absence of said change - much of the estate is right to buy and now buy to let IIRC. The Tories have not held up as well there as in (somewhat) comparable New Addington Harold Hill or Sutton St Helier. Speaking of JLM members, a lot of the effort always has to go into Shama Tatler in Chingford & Woodford Green now because Labour (objectively) cocked up their selection process with an easy gain squandered to the point where IDS could even win again! My wife tells me there's a heavy Pakistani population in Ilford, and pretty much every Pakistani I know (educated, liberal and secular) sees Gaza as the hottest issue in politics now. I also think you can't underestimate how many (rightly or wrongly) will vote for a candidate with the surname Mohamed without any hesitation over a white bloke. I'm not saying it'll be a cakewalk for Leanne, but she could make this race into Bethnal Green & Bow 2005. I hate to point this out (and I hope this isn't the case) - some might vote against Streeting because he is gay (again, I hope it's a non-issue in the campaign, but you have a large number of socially conservative Pakistanis in the seat, and my wife tells me a fair number of Muslims would have deep reservations about voting for a an LGBT candidate - again, 2015 and 2017 suggest that's far less true nowadays, so I take that with a hefty pinch of salt). TL;DR: 1) Leanne Mohamed's campaign is about more than international politics, and 2) she doesn't need all or even the overwhelming majority of Muslim votes. I still believe that she will sweep the wards bordering the A10 that have seen the most demographic change and win (just) with a majority of under 1,000 in Ilford North. |
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