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Post by johnloony on Feb 25, 2023 21:27:26 GMT
No it really isn't. A large majority of voters in the new Bristol Central seat are Labour-Green swing voters. The most recent result in Bristol West (which is less favourable for us than Bristol Central) had us on 24% - twice what Labour got in South Holland and the Deepings, and three times what the Tories got in Knowsley. It's still likely to be something of a stretch for us to win it, but it's not impossible.Yes it is, unless Labour contrive to screw up their nomination. And no, Lab-Green swing voters are not "a large majority" of the new seat, they are a noticeable minority at best Perhaps they are or they aren’t, depending on whether you mean local election voters or general election voters. |
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Post by greenchristian on Feb 25, 2023 21:33:06 GMT
No it really isn't. A large majority of voters in the new Bristol Central seat are Labour-Green swing voters. The most recent result in Bristol West (which is less favourable for us than Bristol Central) had us on 24% - twice what Labour got in South Holland and the Deepings, and three times what the Tories got in Knowsley. It's still likely to be something of a stretch for us to win it, but it's not impossible.Yes it is, unless Labour contrive to screw up their nomination. And no, Lab-Green swing voters are not "a large majority" of the new seat, they are a noticeable minority at best You have a very strange definition of "Impossible". I guess it's possible that Labour-Green swing voters have significantly reduced in number since 2017 (when they definitely did make up the majority, and almost all ended up swinging to Labour). But the fact that the seat is almost monolithically Green at local level and strongly Labour at Westminster rather suggests that they haven't. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 25, 2023 21:38:57 GMT
Yes it is, unless Labour contrive to screw up their nomination. And no, Lab-Green swing voters are not "a large majority" of the new seat, they are a noticeable minority at best You have a very strange definition of "Impossible". I guess it's possible that Labour-Green swing voters have significantly reduced in number since 2015 (when they definitely did make up the majority, and almost all ended up swinging to Labour). But the fact that the seat is almost monolithically Green at local level and strongly Labour at Westminster rather suggests that they haven't. An awful lot of local Green voters here are Labour voters who got fed up of the Labour council/mayor. They are not swing voters in the sense that they could go either way, most of them very rigidly vote Labour nationally and Green locally and are highly unlikely to change that pattern (see also Reading). And again there's the turnout issue, Labour in Bristol have often found that it's not always easy to turn out their vote, and Labour generally do better under the higher turnout of a general election |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Feb 26, 2023 8:50:44 GMT
You have a very strange definition of "Impossible". I guess it's possible that Labour-Green swing voters have significantly reduced in number since 2015 (when they definitely did make up the majority, and almost all ended up swinging to Labour). But the fact that the seat is almost monolithically Green at local level and strongly Labour at Westminster rather suggests that they haven't. An awful lot of local Green voters here are Labour voters who got fed up of the Labour council/mayor. They are not swing voters in the sense that they could go either way, most of them very rigidly vote Labour nationally and Green locally and are highly unlikely to change that pattern (see also Reading). And again there's the turnout issue, Labour in Bristol have often found that it's not always easy to turn out their vote, and Labour generally do better under the higher turnout of a general election I don't think that the Greens are likely to win Bristol Central in 2024. But I don't think the people who are voting Green in local elections are really safe Labour in a General Election; they may be in Reading, but I doubt they are in central Bristol. First of all, the existing seat voted Lib Dem in 2010, and quite comfortably so, and I would expect that the proposed boundary changes would have only increased their majority; people may think of the seat as "safe Labour" because of Thangam Debbonaire's enormous majorities in 2017 and 2019, but looking any further back than that suggests otherwise. Then note that in this thread clyde1998 calculated some "social attitudes" scores for constituencies, in which the existing Bristol West comes out as a massive outlier, except for one constituency keeping it company; note which constituency that was, and which party represents it at Westminster. Indeed, what I think Bristol Central is really full of is the sort of people whose default choice is Labour, but would vote for Caroline Lucas without much hesitation if they moved to Brighton Pavilion. That's not going to make it easy for the Greens to win it in 2024, but as soon as a Labour government starts doing things which annoy that sort of voter (which it will!) then the seat is going to be vulnerable if the Greens can get a decent candidate and fight a good campaign. Similar things could be said about Sheffield Central, on its new Manor-less boundaries, but I think Bristol Central is the most promising seat for the Greens other than Brighton Pavilion. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 26, 2023 10:02:45 GMT
There is very little chance of the Greens winning in Bristol *next* time, and some of them are getting distinctly carried away about their short term prospects.
But longer term, I agree - indeed there are maybe half a dozen Labour seats worth persevering with on that basis.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
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Post by clyde1998 on Feb 26, 2023 18:23:34 GMT
There is very little chance of the Greens winning in Bristol *next* time, and some of them are getting distinctly carried away about their short term prospects. But longer term, I agree - indeed there are maybe half a dozen Labour seats worth persevering with on that basis. Indeed, Labour's national strength should be far too great for anyone other than a Labour victory in the Bristol Central seat in the next election. However, as that national support wanes there's an opportunity for the Greens to win the seat (in a similar situation to Brighton Pavilion) as the Greens are the best placed party to win lost Labour voters with the constituency demographics (same with the aforementioned Sheffield Central).
Based on a realistic situation come an election, there aren't any viable seats for the Greens to win, rather seats where the Greens should continue to focus on building support and trust to benefit once Labour becomes unpopular with the target vote.
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Post by batman on Feb 26, 2023 18:49:46 GMT
There is very little chance of the Greens winning in Bristol *next* time, and some of them are getting distinctly carried away about their short term prospects. But longer term, I agree - indeed there are maybe half a dozen Labour seats worth persevering with on that basis. they got carried away in other recent general elections too, as they have in at least one other seat, possibly two. |
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Post by batman on Feb 28, 2023 9:50:26 GMT
It now looks likely that 3 former Prime Ministers - Boris Johnson, Liz Truss & Theresa May - will be standing for re-election at the forthcoming general election. This will, if so, be the first time since WWII that that has occurred. In the 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 & 2017 elections, no former PM was a candidate. If Boris Johnson stands & loses in Uxbridge & S Ruislip, it will be the first time since WWII that a Prime Minister, sitting or former, has lost their seat in a British general election. Truss & May are generally regarded as unlikely to lose theirs. The last time that 2 former PMs were candidates was 1983, when Jim Callaghan & Ted Heath were both re-elected.
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Post by matureleft on Feb 28, 2023 10:39:49 GMT
It now looks likely that 3 former Prime Ministers - Boris Johnson, Liz Truss & Theresa May - will be standing for re-election at the forthcoming general election. This will, if so, be the first time since WWII that that has occurred. In the 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 & 2017 elections, no former PM was a candidate. If Boris Johnson stands & loses in Uxbridge & S Ruislip, it will be the first time since WWII that a Prime Minister, sitting or former, has lost their seat in a British general election. Truss & May are generally regarded as unlikely to lose theirs. The last time that 2 former PMs were candidates was 1983, when Jim Callaghan & Ted Heath were both re-elected. Yes. I'm wondering when it would have been true previously. In 1935 Baldwin, MacDonald and Lloyd George were all candidates and former prime ministers but Baldwin was also the Prime Minister at the election. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,904
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 28, 2023 10:41:37 GMT
Who was the last sitting PM to lose their seat - Balfour?
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Post by matureleft on Feb 28, 2023 10:51:51 GMT
Who was the last sitting PM to lose their seat - Balfour? Yes, I believe so. MacDonald retired just before his defeat in 1935. In the Victorian era, when politicians stood in more than one seat, defeats in one seat must have happened. |
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Post by islington on Feb 28, 2023 10:53:53 GMT
It now looks likely that 3 former Prime Ministers - Boris Johnson, Liz Truss & Theresa May - will be standing for re-election at the forthcoming general election. This will, if so, be the first time since WWII that that has occurred. In the 2001, 2005, 2010, 2015 & 2017 elections, no former PM was a candidate. If Boris Johnson stands & loses in Uxbridge & S Ruislip, it will be the first time since WWII that a Prime Minister, sitting or former, has lost their seat in a British general election. Truss & May are generally regarded as unlikely to lose theirs. The last time that 2 former PMs were candidates was 1983, when Jim Callaghan & Ted Heath were both re-elected. Yes. I'm wondering when it would have been true previously. In 1935 Baldwin, MacDonald and Lloyd George were all candidates and former prime ministers but Baldwin was also the Prime Minister at the election. The 1924 GE saw Ramsay MacDonald (incumbent) in Aberavon, Stanley Baldwin in Bewdley, David Lloyd George in Carnarvon Boroughs, and HH Asquith in Paisley.
Asquith was defeated (like most Liberals in 1924). The others were all reelected.
I'm inclined to think this must have been the all-time record because once you go much farther back you find a lot of PMs were in the Lords and were not subject to the undignified business of submitting themselves to the verdict of the lowly rabble.
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 28, 2023 11:01:20 GMT
Who was the last sitting PM to lose their seat - Balfour? Yes, I believe so. MacDonald retired just before his defeat in 1935. In the Victorian era, when politicians stood in more than one seat, defeats in one seat must have happened. And indeed people got elected in more than one place at the same time. |
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 28, 2023 11:02:16 GMT
Who was the last sitting PM to lose their seat - Balfour? Paul Nuttall or possibly George Santos.  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,904
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 28, 2023 11:02:59 GMT
What happened as far as standing for more than one seat is concerned?
Was there actual legislation against it or did it just organically die out as a widespread practice??
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Post by finsobruce on Feb 28, 2023 11:31:02 GMT
What happened as far as standing for more than one seat is concerned? Was there actual legislation against it or did it just organically die out as a widespread practice?? Mr Boothroyd will know better than I but I would think that the 1885 Redistribution of Seats Act probably had something to do with it.
clarification edit - as it disincentivised multiple candidacies . As great king rat has just pointed out, legislation to actually stop people doing it, is much more recent. |
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Post by greatkingrat on Feb 28, 2023 11:36:14 GMT
There is legislation against it now, but that is fairly recent. I think Rainbow George Weiss was the last person to stand in more than one constituency at a General Election in 2001?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2023 13:21:39 GMT
There is very little chance of the Greens winning in Bristol *next* time, and some of them are getting distinctly carried away about their short term prospects. But longer term, I agree - indeed there are maybe half a dozen Labour seats worth persevering with on that basis. they got carried away in other recent general elections too, as they have in at least one other seat, possibly two. To be fair several other parties got ahead of themselves in their expectations, in some or all of the past few GEs. Although I do have (now rather vague) memories of Natalie Bennett being quite high profile in one. Was that 2010 or 2015? |
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Post by Wisconsin on Feb 28, 2023 13:33:26 GMT
There is legislation against it now, but that is fairly recent. I think Rainbow George Weiss was the last person to stand in more than one constituency at a General Election in 2001? Is it section 22 Electoral Administration Act 2006? www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2006/22/section/22 |
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Post by batman on Feb 28, 2023 14:00:38 GMT
there was IIRC a candidate who stood in every Cardiff seat in 1997 too
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