The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 39,015
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 16, 2021 11:45:30 GMT
A poor comparison too - many of these fell to Labour (or the Lib Dems) in the New Labour years, and are classed as marginal/swing seats anyway. Nobody would seriously equate Labour winning Watford with the Tories winning Redcar. Except that the "red wall" is regularly cited as including seats won by the Tories in the 1980s (or even 1992) |
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 16, 2021 12:08:50 GMT
I dont think there is a strict definition of "the red wall" is there? It's whatever the person thinks it is, isnt it? [usually the Mail, express etc]
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,104
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Post by ilerda on Apr 16, 2021 12:31:23 GMT
A poor comparison too - many of these fell to Labour (or the Lib Dems) in the New Labour years, and are classed as marginal/swing seats anyway. Nobody would seriously equate Labour winning Watford with the Tories winning Redcar. Except that the "red wall" is regularly cited as including seats won by the Tories in the 1980s (or even 1992) You're right, the red wall has certainly been defined far too widely on occasions. Seats like Dewsbury and Warrington South that were won under Cameron should definitely not be included. Some of the ones that we held in the 80's and 90's are a bit different. Some had substantial majorities for Labour in the Blair years which was part of that shift that made them very safe. Others remained fairly marginal throughout and since. Bury South for example went Labour in 1997 and had majorities of over 12,000, but then had majorities of around 4/5,000 after 2010. I still don't think being Tory in the 80's is quite equivalent to being Labour until 2010 and marginal since though. |
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 16, 2021 13:06:05 GMT
Here's my back of a fag packet list:
Blyth Valley
Durham NW
Bish Auckland
Sedgefield
Redcar
Leigh
Penistone/Stocksbridge
Morley
Wakefield
Rother V
Don V
Grimsby
Derbs NE
Bolsover
Ashfield
Mansfield?
Gedling
Stoke x 3
Newcastle-u-L
Dudley N
Bham Northfield
West Bromwich x 2
+
possibly the Welsh seats:
Wrexham
Delyn
Clwyd S
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,104
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Post by ilerda on Apr 16, 2021 13:23:32 GMT
I'm not sure I'd include Morley, and I would include Scunthorpe.
Gedling and Birmingham Northfield are interesting because they're sort of white working class suburban seats rather than post-industrial towns. But they've acted in a similar way to Darlington etc, which isn't on your list.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 16, 2021 13:32:02 GMT
If the definition of red wall is non metropolitan seats in the North of England which have traditionally been safe Labour but have swung away from the party because of a range of factors then there are certainly other similar seats which were just held in 2019, and which we don’t know whether they will revert to being Safe Labour seats or will become marginals or Conservative seats in the future, but I would include in any red wall definition
Rotherham
Wentworth and Dearne
Barnsley East
Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford
Hemsworth
Hull East
Doncaster North
Doncaster Central
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 16, 2021 14:09:16 GMT
I'm not sure I'd include Morley, and I would include Scunthorpe. Gedling and Birmingham Northfield are interesting because they're sort of white working class suburban seats rather than post-industrial towns. But they've acted in a similar way to Darlington etc, which isn't on your list. I didnt include Scunny and Darlo, as they have been seats won by the Tories once or twice over the last 30-odd years or so, whereas Morley, gedling and Northfield have been [off the top of my head] Labour throughout until 2019[or slightly earlier in Morley]. I wasnt so much looking at the make-up of the seat, just the voting history. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 16, 2021 14:43:20 GMT
I'm not sure I'd include Morley, and I would include Scunthorpe. Gedling and Birmingham Northfield are interesting because they're sort of white working class suburban seats rather than post-industrial towns. But they've acted in a similar way to Darlington etc, which isn't on your list. Gedling is not "white working class" but rather middle of the road. Gedling (along with its predecessor, Carlton) was reliably Conservative from 1950 to 1997. Vernon Coaker built up a strong personal vote during his tenure; otherwise Gedling would have flipped in 2010 as Broxtowe did. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 16, 2021 14:45:31 GMT
I'm going to propose a concept called "Purple Patches" - suburban seats in the Midlands that voted for New Labour but have become progressively more Tory since. Eg. Amber Valley, Cannock Chase, Nuneaton, NW Leicestershire, Redditch, Rugby, South Derbyshire, Stourbridge, Tamworth etc. Most of those are not suburban. Small town would be more accurate except in Stourbridge's case. Cannock Chase would have been Labour even in 1983, as would Telford. Both now have Conservative majorities exceeding 10,000 and are unlikely to be regained by Labour anytime soon. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 16, 2021 14:55:56 GMT
I'm going to propose a concept called "Purple Patches" - suburban seats in the Midlands that voted for New Labour but have become progressively more Tory since. Eg. Amber Valley, Cannock Chase, Nuneaton, NW Leicestershire, Redditch, Rugby, South Derbyshire, Stourbridge, Tamworth etc. Most of those are not suburban. Small town would be more accurate except in Stourbridge's case. Cannock Chase would have been Labour even in 1983, as would Telford. Both now have Conservative majorities exceeding 10,000 and are unlikely to be regained by Labour anytime soon. I'm not so sure about that. It's possible but the difference between the relative party strengths in the pre-1983 Cannock seat and Cannock & Burntwood weren't all that great, looking at the 1979 notional results. And when you consider how badly Labour did in Mid Staffordshire in 1983 it's hard to believe that Rugeley would have helped them all that much then. |
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,104
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Post by ilerda on Apr 16, 2021 15:14:08 GMT
 Here's a quick demonstration of how the Tory vote share changed in 13 Purple Bricks seats between 1997 and 2019. Note boundary changes in most seats in 2010. The constituencies are: Amber Valley Burton Cannock Chase Erewash N Warwickshire NW Leicestershire Nuneaton Redditch Rugby* S Derbyshire Stafford Stourbridge Tamworth *Rugby & Kenilworth before 2010. As a local boy I know this is quite a substantial change, and notionally in 2005 the post-2010 seat was Labour held rather than Rugby & Kenilworth which was a Tory gain. However I think the pattern still holds. |
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ilerda
Conservative
Posts: 1,104
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Post by ilerda on Apr 16, 2021 15:17:43 GMT
I'm going to propose a concept called "Purple Patches" - suburban seats in the Midlands that voted for New Labour but have become progressively more Tory since. Eg. Amber Valley, Cannock Chase, Nuneaton, NW Leicestershire, Redditch, Rugby, South Derbyshire, Stourbridge, Tamworth etc. Most of those are not suburban. Small town would be more accurate except in Stourbridge's case. Cannock Chase would have been Labour even in 1983, as would Telford. Both now have Conservative majorities exceeding 10,000 and are unlikely to be regained by Labour anytime soon. Yes you're right, geographically and historically they are largely small town seats. But I think nowadays they are 'suburban' at least socio-economically, although they do of course retain their own local economies and identities to some extent. |
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 16, 2021 15:24:20 GMT
Taking the 2005 notionals for England & Wales, the size of the Lab lead in 2005 and shift in the lead these 33 seats (all Con gains) stand out:-  For Red Wall 2.0 (seats held by Lab in 2019 by 20% or less and pronounced shift to Con since 2005) 41 seats:-  * High Peak, Stroud and Bury North have shifted most to Lab (since 2005) although all Con gains in 2019. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Apr 16, 2021 17:00:29 GMT
I'm going to propose a concept called "Purple Patches" - suburban seats in the Midlands that voted for New Labour but have become progressively more Tory since. Eg. Amber Valley, Cannock Chase, Nuneaton, NW Leicestershire, Redditch, Rugby, South Derbyshire, Stourbridge, Tamworth etc. Most of those are not suburban. Small town would be more accurate except in Stourbridge's case. Cannock Chase would have been Labour even in 1983, as would Telford. Both now have Conservative majorities exceeding 10,000 and are unlikely to be regained by Labour anytime soon. I'd say that Rugeley probably was slightly better for Labour than Burntwood in 1983 but probably not enough to have overturned the 2,000 Tory majority. |
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 19, 2021 13:24:46 GMT
Assuming equal electorates across the UK, give or take a seat or two:-  1964 flips, Feb 74 puts Con ahead but still hung, TM likely wins a majority in 2017. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 24, 2021 18:53:42 GMT
In February 1974, Peter Hardy set a record in a single member constituency when he polled 52,532 votes as the sitting Labour MP in the then oversized Rother Valley constituency, a record that still stands and will never be beaten in all likelihood.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 24, 2021 21:16:15 GMT
In February 1974, Peter Hardy set a record in a single member constituency when he polled 52,532 votes as the sitting Labour MP in the then oversized Rother Valley constituency, a record that still stands and will never be beaten in all likelihood. Which record? James Molyneaux polled 59,589 votes as a Unionist in South Antrim in the 1970 general election. |
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Post by greenhert on Apr 24, 2021 21:19:48 GMT
In February 1974, Peter Hardy set a record in a single member constituency when he polled 52,532 votes as the sitting Labour MP in the then oversized Rother Valley constituency, a record that still stands and will never be beaten in all likelihood. Which record? James Molyneaux polled 59,589 votes as a Unionist in South Antrim in the 1970 general election. The record in a mainland single member constituency in Britain. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 24, 2021 21:25:42 GMT
Sir Isidore Salmon got 52,729 votes in 1935 in Harrow.
Sir Philip Cunliffe-Lister got 66,305 votes in 1931 in Hendon.
Sir Reginald Blair got 69,762 votes in 1935 in Hendon.
What record?
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Post by finsobruce on Apr 24, 2021 22:35:35 GMT
Clifford Erskine-Bolt got 53,010 votes in Blackpool in 1931
(and he had a celebrity opponent in the person of the author Edgar Wallace).
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