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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 20, 2012 9:13:27 GMT
Do we know if we will be getting ward-level figures for this Mayoral election, like in 2008? They will make very interesting reading, if so. I would guess so. They are doing ecounting again, and although it might look like they have changed the supplier. DRS who did the first three elections are in fact the lead party in the new supplier IntElect. The other partner in IntElect is the Electoral Reform Society and having election junkies running elections is a certain way to ensure you get as much data out of it as possible. Giving ward (and even, dare one hope, polling district) breakdowns is also a very good way to spot election fraud. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 20, 2012 9:23:40 GMT
I wish they would solve the problem of postal votes not being included in the relevant ward
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Post by fwt on Apr 20, 2012 9:32:56 GMT
Plaistow, Chichester DC
Thomas (Con): 455 - 52.7%
Cooper (LD): 408 - 47.3%
Conservative hold
Turnout 22.6%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 20, 2012 9:38:39 GMT
Thank heavens, I was pining for Plaistow.
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Post by fwt on Apr 20, 2012 9:47:14 GMT
The irony is that they did count last night - the result is dated and timed as 19th April at 11:15pm. The delay was putting it on their website.
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Post by marksenior on Apr 20, 2012 9:50:10 GMT
That is the closest Ray has come to winning this ward . It is a shame he lives in the smallest of the 4 villages which is only around 12% of the total voters
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 20, 2012 10:02:23 GMT
Have the Tower Hamlets figures been officially confirmed?? There were some claims on Twitter last night that there were only about 30 votes in it.
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Post by fwt on Apr 20, 2012 10:06:58 GMT
Have the Tower Hamlets figures been officially confirmed?? There were some claims on Twitter last night that there were only about 30 votes in it. Yes - this from Tower Hamlets website: Kirsty BLAKE Green Party 99 votes Richard Alan MACMILLAN Liberal Democrats 39 votes Gulam ROBBANI Independent 1030 votes Matthew James SMITH Conservative Party 140 votes Ala UDDIN Labour Party 987 votes www.towerhamlets.gov.uk/lgsl/351-400/362_voting/notice_of_elections.aspx |
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,772
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Post by andrea on Apr 20, 2012 10:09:35 GMT
So when will the new Plaistow councillor resign? Tory win was in Longbridge which was always a quite Tory inclined ward until fairly recently. As a note of curiosity, the Labour candidate in that Longbridge by-election was the same who won last night. Or at least they have the same name and surnames The Tory candidate was the only one living in Goresbrook. The Labour winner lives in Longbridge, the BNP candidate is from Alibon, the LibDem from Parsloes, UKIP contender from Eastbury. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 20, 2012 10:14:20 GMT
It's not just Plaistow, actually - 3 of the four vacancies last night have now had multiple byelections in recent years!
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 20, 2012 10:49:54 GMT
I wish they would solve the problem of postal votes not being included in the relevant ward It's hard to see how they'd be able to do that, as for wards with few postal voters you couldn't publish them separately and maintain the integrity of the secret ballot. You could verify them separately and then add them to the on the day ballots, but that would slow the process enough to make it unlikely. Postal votes by borough would give you most of the detail you'd need. The value of added granularity would only apply in a few areas. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 20, 2012 10:56:31 GMT
I wish they would solve the problem of postal votes not being included in the relevant ward It's hard to see how they'd be able to do that, as for wards with few postal voters you couldn't publish them separately and maintain the integrity of the secret ballot. You could verify them separately and then add them to the on the day ballots, but that would slow the process enough to make it unlikely. That is what they need to do. Slowing the process is a price worth paying |
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Post by stepney on Apr 20, 2012 13:15:55 GMT
Giving ward (and even, dare one hope, polling district) breakdowns is also a very good way to spot election fraud. It is indeed. Apropos of absolutely nothing, here is a comparison of Livingstone's lead over Norris (on first prefs) in each ward in 2004 against his lead over Johnson in 2008. The orange ones are Tower Hamlets wards.  The red one, which fits the London-wide pattern there or thereabouts, is Westbourne.   Bigger image here. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 20, 2012 15:22:01 GMT
The red one, which fits the London-wide pattern there or thereabouts, is Westbourne. Bigger image here. Satisfyingly above the trend line, I would say. Want to add confidence bars? Actually it would be nice to see some other comparisons and you're welcome to my master spreadsheet of borough election and GLA results since 2002. The Tower Hamlets wards were significantly altered by the fact that Galloway ran for Respect in 2004 and did very well there, but in 2008 his voters returned to Labour. Please don't try to insinuate that there was election fraud going on because there really isn't any evidence for it. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 20, 2012 15:27:20 GMT
The Hexham TC Gilesgate byelection was won by the Conservatives:
C 132 (40.9%)
Lab 92 (28.5%)
Ind 56 (17.3%)
L Dem 43 (13.3%)
Turnout 38.7%
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Post by stepney on Apr 20, 2012 15:52:55 GMT
The red one, which fits the London-wide pattern there or thereabouts, is Westbourne. Bigger image here. Actually it would be nice to see some other comparisons and you're welcome to my master spreadsheet of borough election and GLA results since 2002. Ooh yes please. I'll PM you my email address. All requests for other comparisons gratefully received. Please don't try to insinuate that there was election fraud going on because there really isn't any evidence for it. Oh, absolutely; there's no evidence of electoral fraud in the London Borough of Tower Hamlets. |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 21, 2012 3:55:15 GMT
I wish they would solve the problem of postal votes not being included in the relevant ward There is a cost factor to be considered. For example, in Croydon in the local elections in 2010 the postal votes were sorted into the 24 wards by the Royal Mail staff before they were delivered to the council; I was told that the Council had to pay £300 (I think) for each sub-division, i.e. each ward. If the postal votes do not need to be sub-divided according to ward then there is less reason to pay for the extra cost. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2012 7:56:05 GMT
That is the closest Ray has come to winning this ward . It is a shame he lives in the smallest of the 4 villages which is only around 12% of the total voters The shame, Mark, is that despite the multiple by elections in Plaistow, and the fact that the LibDems have got so close, the Chichester constituency party still do absolutely no work to win the ward! Don't know details this time around, but they haven't done leaflets or canvassing in the past. While I was a member, I got as far as asking the WSCC LibDem group to bypass the constituency and just do the work our(them)selves, but nothing doing. I think if Ray won this for the LibDems, incumbency would keep him in the seat for as long as he wants - but apparently the local LibDems don't want it... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 21, 2012 8:04:07 GMT
The most populated part of the ward is an awful long way away from Chichester itself or any of the more populated areas of that constituency. If you were going to import activists there, it looks like Horsham would be the more viable source from a LD point of view, or from Cranleigh in Surrey even
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 21, 2012 8:15:58 GMT
Yes - and of course Horsham has a sizeable number of LiBDem county and district councillors nearby... but as with all these things, it's about demarcation it's in Chichester, so Chichester party make the decisions, and they're basically totally focussed on the city itself.
Although a lot is made of this being rural with a dispersed population, the fact is the LibDems only needed to find another 50 votes to win - I've walkde the area a fair bit, and I reckon it's a weekend's work.
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