Local Council by-elections 12th December 2024

[Tony Otim]

BARNSLEY MBC; Dodworth (Lib Dem resigned)
Candidates:
BURKINSHAW, Steven John (Conservative)
HODGSON, Eric Benson (Reform UK)
HUTCHINSON, Kate (Labour)
MAYNE, Trevor Anthony (Green)
WATERS, Andy (Liberal Democrat)

2024: LD 1328; Lab 896; Con 361
2023: LD 1407; Lab 806; Con 334
2022: LD 1315; Lab 944; Con 514; Frdm All 101
2021: LD 804; BIG 757; Lab 677; Con 651; Grn 178
2019: LD 1308; Lab 647; UKIP 440; Yorks 260; Con 212
2018: Lab 956; BIG 933; Con 476; LD 164
2016: BIG 1344; Lab 641; Con 262; Grn 218
2015; Lab 2028; BIG 1772; Con 1054; Ind 408
2014: BIG 997; Lab 796; UKIP 717; Con 315
2012: BIG 1396; Lab 1165; Con 292
2011: BIG 1564; Lab 1199; Con 494; BNP 222
2010: BIG 1782; Lab 1705; Con 1199; BNP 517
2008: BIG 1444; Lab 654; Con 456; BNP 414
2006: BIG 1378; Lab 1018; Con 466
2004: Ind 2013, 1920, 1761; Lab 904, 848, 829; Con 452

(BIG= Barnsley Independent Group)

Vacancy is for the 2023 term, but all outs and new boundaries are due in 2026. Steven Burkinshaw was the Conservative candidate here in May. Trevor Mayne stood for the Greens in Darton West in May and Andy Waters for the Lib Dems in Penistone East. Mayne was also the Green candidate for Barnsley South (which doesn’t contain this ward) in the General Election.

Current Council: Lab 48; LD 10; Ind 2; Con 1; RefUK 1;



CHELMSFORD DC; South Hanningfield, Stock & Margaretting (Con died)
Candidates:
BONNETT, Gillian (Conservative)
CAPPER, Stephen Edward (Labour)
MASSEY, Edward (Green)
SHAW, Christine Margaret (Liberal Democrat)

2023: Con 1000, 938; LD 221, 205; Lab 139
2019: Con 1070, 973; LD 324, 278
2015: Con 2025, 1988; UKIP 736; Lab 297; LD 225, 178
2011: Con 1734, 1616; Lab 252, 214; LD 178, 122
2007: Con 1335, 1257; LD 210, 155; Lab 133
2003: Con 1051, 977; LD 190, 181; Lab 140

Stephen Capper (Lab) stood in Little Baddow, Danbury & Sandon (which is partly in Stock division, see below) last May, but stood in Maldon division at the 2021 county elections. Edward Massey (Grn) was a Labour candidate in Moulsham & Central last year and in Chelmsford Central division in 2021.

Current Council: LD 33; Con 18; Chelmsford Ind Grp 3; Ind 2; 1 vacancy



ESSEX CC; Stock (Con died)
Candidates:
ALLISON, Thomas Michael (Reform UK)
CAPPER, Stephen Edward (Labour)
CLARK, Paul Hayden (Independent)
DOBSON, Sue (Conservative)
MASSEY, Edward (Green)
SHAW, Christine Margaret (Liberal Democrat)

2021: Con 3468; Lab 497; IndNet 387; LD 337; Grn 304
2017: Con 3277; Ind 710; Lab 348; LD 307; Grn 160
2013: Con 2067; UKIP 1505; Lab 355; LD 177; Grn 171
Sep 11by: Con 1820; UKIP 736; Lab 275; LD 160; Grn 80
2009: Con 3726; LD 711; Grn 493; BNP 442; Lab 297
2005: Con 5944; LD 2232; Grn 867

Paul Clark is a sitting cllr for Rettendon and Runwell ward (Chelmsford DC), which is in this division and has stood for this division as an Independent in the last two elections. Sue Dobson is sitting Conservative cllr for Bicknacre & East & West Hanningfield which is also in this division. See above regarding the Labour and Green candidates. This division would have been very comfortably Conservative last May, despite the independents taking Rettendon & Runwell. It will be reduced in size with the boundary changes due next May.

Current Council: Con 49; Non-Aligned Grp 10 (4 Ind, 2 Canvey Island Ind, 2 Residents for Uttlesford, 1 Grn, 1 Ind Loughton Res Ass); LD 8; Lab 6; Ref 1



RUNNYMEDE DC; Ottershaw (Ind died)
Candidates:
CHIVERTON, Peter Alan (Green)
DAY, Robert Anthony (Independent)
EMERSON-MILLER, Anne (Labour)
KUSNERAITIS, Mike (Conservative)
McCAUGHEY, Ronan Stephen (Liberal Democrat)
SENTHILNATHAN, Mayuran (Reform UK)

2024: Ind 727; Con 384; Lab 274; Grn 99; LD 92
2023: Ind 746; Con 431; Lab 215; LD 133; Grn 118
2022: Ind 947; Con 428; Lab 190; LD 139
2021: Ind 855; Con 675; Lab 250; LD 120
2019: Ind 1047, 1046; Con 517, 503, 494; UKIP 387; LD 358; Lab 273

Vacancy is for the 2022-26 term. The Labour and Green candidates both stood here in May, with the Green also having stood last year and the Labour one in 2021. Robert Day has previously stood as in Independent in Woodham & Rowtown Ward back in 2021. Mike Kusneraitis (Con) is a former cllr who last stood in Englefield Green West as an Independent in 2022, losing the seat that he had won as a Conservative in 2018 and 2019. Mayuran Senthilnathan was the Reform candidate for Epsom & Ewell at the General Election and stood in Virginia Water ward in Runnymede last year.

Current Council: Con 13; Lab 8; LD 6; Runnymede Ind Res 6; Ind (not affiliated) 4; Grn 3; 1 vacancy



ST HELENS MBC; Blackbrook (Lab died)
Candidates:
DODD, Thomas (Conservative)
FLOYD, Victor (Reform UK)
McLAUGHLIN, Trevor Anthony (Independent)
THOMAS, Daniel John (Green)
YEOMAN, Sally (Labour)

2022: Lab 1309, 1262, 1255; Grn 715, 707; Con 442

Daniel Thomas was the Green candidate for St Helens North (which contains this ward) at the General Election.

Current Council: Lab 28; Grn 6; LD 4; The Independents 3; Con 2; Ind (ungrouped) 2; Newton-le-Willows Ind 2; 1 vacancy



WAKEFIELD MBC; Featherstone (Lab died)
Candidates:
ALI, Waj (Reform UK)
HASLAM, Scott Graham (Labour)
HOWDEN, Christopher Thomas (Liberal Democrat)
RUZVIDZO, Pepe (Conservative)
WOOD, Alexander John (Green)

2024: Lab 2005; Con 425; Grn 324
2023: Lab 2057; Con 475; Grn 281
2022: Lab 2000; Ind 717; Con 597
2021: Lab 2104; Con 802; Yorks 292; Grn 169; LD 101
2019: Lab 1794; Con 733
2018: Lab 2238; Con 716
2016: Lab 2778; Con 611
2015: Lab 4111; UKIP 1512; Con 934; Ind 382
2014: Lab 2681; Con 647
2012: Lab 2649; Con 516
2011: Lab 2707; Ind 1093; Con 516
2010: Lab 3970; Ind 1466; Con 923; Ind 668
2008: Ind 1974; Lab 1872; Con 464
2007: Ind 1828; Lab 1698; BNP 392; LD 260; Con 232
2006: Ind 2207; Lab 1871; Con 326
2004: Ind 2356, 2143, 1859; Lab 1771, 1703, 1583; BNP 685; Con 322, 312, 308

Vacancy is for the 2023 term, but there will be all outs and new boundaries in 2026. In May, Waj Ali (Reform) stood for the Conservatives in Wrenthorpe & Outwood West, where he had also stood for them in the previous 2 years. Before that he contested Hemsworth and West Yorkshire mayoralty for Reform in 2021, Hemsworth for the Brexit Party in 2019 and Wakefield as an independent at the 2017 General Election. Christopher Howden stood for the Lib Dems in Newcastle (Arthur’s Hill ward) in May, but has stood in Wakefield back in 2021 (Ackworth, North Elmsall & Upton). Pepe Ruzvidzo has previously stood for the Conservatives in South Elmsall & South Kirkby (2019-23).

Current Council: Lab 55; Con 3; LD 3; Ind 1; 1 vacancy

[batman]

That Tonyotim - up to no good again.

[sanders]

Reform could win the Barnsley ward. Brexit Party almost won in Barnsley. Plus Labour have lost Dodworth before. Dodworth probably voted Tory in 2019. The Tories won Penistone & Stocksbridge. That seat included three Barnsley wards. I think Reform take the seat. LDs have done well there, however.

[markgoodair]

I'm acting as the election agent for Chris Howden in Featherstone. If he wins we become the official opposition on Wakefield Council.

[The Bishop]

Nov 19, 2024 7:42:50 GMT sanders said:

Reform could win the Barnsley ward. Brexit Party almost won in Barnsley. Plus Labour have lost Dodworth before. Dodworth probably voted Tory in 2019. The Tories won Penistone & Stocksbridge. That seat included three Barnsley wards. I think Reform take the seat. LDs have done well there, however.

"Almost won" is somewhat overegging it, presuming you mean the 2019 GE results. Plus its a LibDem ward these days, not Labour.

[thejedi]

Nov 19, 2024 8:08:20 GMT markgoodair said:

I'm acting as the election agent for Chris Howden in Featherstone. If he wins we become the official opposition on Wakefield Council.

You won’t , as you’re not a councillor.

[sanders]

Nov 19, 2024 13:38:55 GMT The Bishop said:

Nov 19, 2024 7:42:50 GMT sanders said:

Reform could win the Barnsley ward. Brexit Party almost won in Barnsley. Plus Labour have lost Dodworth before. Dodworth probably voted Tory in 2019. The Tories won Penistone & Stocksbridge. That seat included three Barnsley wards. I think Reform take the seat. LDs have done well there, however.

"Almost won" is somewhat overegging it, presuming you mean the 2019 GE results. Plus its a LibDem ward these days, not Labour.

Exactly, if they can lose it to the Lib Dems, they could lose it to Reform. 

[No Offence Alan]

Nov 19, 2024 16:48:52 GMT sanders said:

Nov 19, 2024 13:38:55 GMT The Bishop said:

"Almost won" is somewhat overegging it, presuming you mean the 2019 GE results. Plus its a LibDem ward these days, not Labour.

Exactly, if they can lose it to the Lib Dems, they could lose it to Reform. 

Except it's not theirs to lose. If Reform were serious contenders, the LDs could squeeze the Lab vote.

[bjornhattan]

Nov 19, 2024 16:48:52 GMT sanders said:

Nov 19, 2024 13:38:55 GMT The Bishop said:

"Almost won" is somewhat overegging it, presuming you mean the 2019 GE results. Plus its a LibDem ward these days, not Labour.

Exactly, if they can lose it to the Lib Dems, they could lose it to Reform. 

But it isn't particularly obvious territory for Reform - it's separated from Barnsley proper by the M1. And while not to the same extent as the villages further out, this has helped Dodworth attract some well educated commuters.

My own modelling suggests a Reform vote of only about 22% there at the General Election - that's far lower than the Featherstone and Blackbrook estimates and roughly in line with Stock in Essex. This isn't to say Reform definitely can't win, but if they do it'll be in a chaotic result akin to the 2021 result here. Just because it's Barnsley doesn't mean it's Kes...

[sanders]

Nov 19, 2024 17:37:56 GMT bjornhattan said:

Nov 19, 2024 16:48:52 GMT sanders said:

Exactly, if they can lose it to the Lib Dems, they could lose it to Reform. 

But it isn't particularly obvious territory for Reform - it's separated from Barnsley proper by the M1. And while not to the same extent as the villages further out, this has helped Dodworth attract some well educated commuters.

My own modelling suggests a Reform vote of only about 22% there at the General Election - that's far lower than the Featherstone and Blackbrook estimates and roughly in line with Stock in Essex. This isn't to say Reform definitely can't win, but if they do it'll be in a chaotic result akin to the 2021 result here. Just because it's Barnsley doesn't mean it's Kes...

That all makes sense, 22% in the GE isn't a bad place to start from.