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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 12, 2024 10:03:48 GMT
Called for 23rd February.
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xenon
Forum Regular
Posts: 426
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Post by xenon on Nov 12, 2024 12:52:23 GMT
New GroKo incoming? I suppose it isn't a given that CDU+SPD is over 50% this time around.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 12, 2024 14:58:54 GMT
New GroKo incoming? I suppose it isn't a given that CDU+SPD is over 50% this time around. On current numbers, it surely is the most likely game in town. It could be transformative. It could be more absence of change. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 12, 2024 23:31:38 GMT
Is there any chance of a minority CDU/CSU government with support from the AfD but without the latter being in government, a bit like the situation in Sweden with the Sweden Democrats.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
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Post by Foggy on Nov 13, 2024 2:22:49 GMT
New GroKo incoming? I suppose it isn't a given that CDU+SPD is over 50% this time around. On current numbers, it surely is the most likely game in town. It could be transformative. It could be more absence of change. Don't hold your breath for the former outcome. If the current expected date holds then I'll be landing on German soil five days after the election while the results are likely still being pored over. Might even still be some posters up. (I saw some in Austria last month that had persisted for weeks following the federal vote there.) |
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Georg Ebner
Non-Aligned
Roman romantic reactionary Catholic
Posts: 9,796
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Post by Georg Ebner on Nov 13, 2024 2:54:05 GMT
Is there any chance of a minority CDU/CSU government with support from the AfD but without the latter being in government, a bit like the situation in Sweden with the Sweden Democrats. Any thing with AfD is absolutely totally forbidden, even unthinkable (in the dominant West)! Minority is also associated with the Weimar-RePublic and as a conSequence very unlikely (but at least imaginable). |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 13, 2024 11:46:34 GMT
Is there any chance of a minority CDU/CSU government with support from the AfD but without the latter being in government, a bit like the situation in Sweden with the Sweden Democrats. A non-starter right now for sure - in a decade or more's time, who knows? But maybe AfD might have made themselves a bit more "acceptable" by then. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 13, 2024 12:31:21 GMT
Is there any chance of a minority CDU/CSU government with support from the AfD but without the latter being in government, a bit like the situation in Sweden with the Sweden Democrats. A non-starter right now for sure - in a decade or more's time, who knows? But maybe AfD might have made themselves a bit more "acceptable" by then. There are some things that might happen soon to take the wind out of the sales of both the AfD and BSW, but also some that might pull things the other way. Such as the spectre of VW laying off 30,000 people. The main thing would be something rumoured for a while, which is declaring Syria safe (Austria has been pushing for this). A GroKo has the clout to do this, and act on it. A court judgement has already suggested that this is legal. A few performative roundups of foreign ne'er-do-wells in certain places (hello Frankfurt main station) as well. Suddenly the two ends of the horseshoe lose a big part of their narrative. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 13, 2024 14:12:05 GMT
Well, it's all kicking off in the Bundestag. They're all at each others' throats.
Merz has accused the SPD of spreading deepfake videos of him.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 13, 2024 15:12:51 GMT
Is there any chance of a minority CDU/CSU government with support from the AfD but without the latter being in government, a bit like the situation in Sweden with the Sweden Democrats. No. Georg Ebner is quite right, but Merz has made it clear just today that it’s a no. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 13, 2024 15:16:14 GMT
Is there any chance of a minority CDU/CSU government with support from the AfD but without the latter being in government, a bit like the situation in Sweden with the Sweden Democrats. Any thing with AfD is absolutely totally forbidden, even unthinkable (in the dominant West)! Minority is also associated with the Weimar-RePublic and as a conSequence very unlikely (but at least imaginable). If the FDP get over the threshold, they’d probably be involved in a CDU led government. Lindner may even be Federal Finance Minister again. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 13, 2024 17:04:45 GMT
Is there any chance of a minority CDU/CSU government with support from the AfD but without the latter being in government, a bit like the situation in Sweden with the Sweden Democrats. No. Georg Ebner is quite right, but Merz has made it clear just today that it’s a no. The Strauss line. Good. But it only works with a clear, Christian Democratic programme. Now the challenge is to make that happen. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 13, 2024 17:41:45 GMT
Any thing with AfD is absolutely totally forbidden, even unthinkable (in the dominant West)! Minority is also associated with the Weimar-RePublic and as a conSequence very unlikely (but at least imaginable). If the FDP get over the threshold, they’d probably be involved in a CDU led government. Lindner may even be Federal Finance Minister again. Such a government would also have to include the SPD I assume since there wouldn't be any alternatives. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 13, 2024 17:44:10 GMT
If the FDP get over the threshold, they’d probably be involved in a CDU led government. Lindner may even be Federal Finance Minister again. Such a government would also have to include the SPD I assume since there wouldn't be any alternatives. Precisely, a “Germany Coalition” is the most likely next government I think. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 13, 2024 21:31:31 GMT
No wonder Merz went for the AfD today. The moment he stood up, they starting barracking and shouting. Juvenile.
Söder put in an appearance.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 14, 2024 23:27:40 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 15, 2024 10:27:13 GMT
There will no doubt be a series of pointless bureaucratic steps to fulfil that don't actually benefit anyone! |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 15, 2024 10:37:31 GMT
Latest poll (ahead of a flurry this weekend) on behalf of ARD.
CDU CSU 34 per cent
AfD 18
SPD 16
Grünen B90 12
FDP 5
BSW 6
Others 9
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 15, 2024 12:35:42 GMT
There's a report this morning that the smaller parties won't be able to gather enough signatures in time for the election. The ÖDP, Pirates (yes, them) and the Humanists (basically Volt with less sniffing of their own farts) have written to Scholz to complain.
Whilst that doesn't seem important, minor parties are currently polling at 8 per cent. Knocking out one or two of the bigger parties could have a knock-on effect and keep someone else in the Bundestag...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 20, 2024 11:32:52 GMT
There are ever more rumours that the SPD might remove Scholz as Kanzlerkandidat and replace him with Boris Pistorius. That's a lawyer from Osnabruck being replaced by a lawyer from Osnabruck.
Not to be confused with the CDU, where a lawyer from NRW defeated a lawyer from NRW and a lawyer from NRW.
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