Isle of Wight

[AdminSTB]

Isle of Wight

[nyx]

Wondering if we'll see a Lib Dem comeback considering their recent success in by-elections.

[listener]

Who is retiring?

ISLE OF WIGHT

Elected in 2021 (126): Con 18, Independent 13, Island Independent Network 2, Green Party 2, Lib Dem 1, Lab 1, Vectis Party 1, Our Island 1

Retiring Councillors (as at 09.11.2024) (39): Con 16, Alliance Group 13 (Independent 8, Green Party 2, Island Independent Network 2, Our Island 1),
Lib Dem 4, Empowering Islanders 3 (Independent 2, Con 1), Independent 1, Lab 1, Independent Labour 1



Joe Robertson, MP (Con) (Bembridge)
Ian Dore (Alliance Group (Independent)) (Binstead and Fishbourne)
Jonathan Bacon (Alliance Group (Our Island)) (Brading and St. Helen’s)
Nick Stuart (Lib Dem) (Brighstone, Calbourne and Shalfleet) – elected in by-election (24.11.2022)
Joe Lever (Alliance Group (Green Party)) (Carisbrooke and Gunville)
*Suzie Ellis (Con) (Central Rural)
*Claire Critchison (Alliance Group (Green Party)) (Chale, Niton and Shorwell)
*Lora Peacey Wilcox (Alliance Group (Independent)) (Cowes Medina)
Richard Quigley, MP (Lab) (Cowes North)
John Nicholson (Con) (Cowes South and Northwood)
Paul Fuller, JP (Alliance Group (Independent)) (Cowes West and Gurnard)
Karl Love (Alliance Group (Independent)) (East Cowes)
Matthew Price (Con) (Fairlee and Whippingham)
Peter Spink (Empowering Islanders, elected as Con) (Freshwater North and Yarmouth)
John Medland (Empowering Islanders, elected as Independent) (Freshwater South)
*Vanessa Churchman (Con) (Haylands and Swanmore)
Tig Outlaw (Con) (Lake North)
Paul Brading (Con) (Lake South)
Martin Oliver (Con) (Mountjoy and Slade)
David Adams (Independent) (Nettlestone and Seaview)
*Clare Mosdell (Con) (Newchurch, Havenstreet and Ashey)
*Julie Jones-Evans (Alliance Group (Independent)) (Newport Central)
Ray Redrup (Con) (Newport West)
Stephen Hendry (Con) (Osborne)
Geoff Brodie (Independent Labour, elected as Independent) (Pan and Barton)
Andrew Garratt (Lib Dem) (Parkhurst and Hunnyhill)
Michael Lilley (Lib Dem, elected as No Description) (Ryde Appley and Elmfield)
*Karen Lucioni (Alliance Group (Island Independent Network)) (Ryde Monktonmead)
Phil Jordan (Alliance Group (No Description)) (Ryde North West)
Warren Drew (Con) (Ryde South East)
Ian Stephens (Alliance Group (Island Independent Network)) (Ryde West)
*Debbie Andre (Alliance Group (Independent)) (Sandown North)
Ian Ward (Con) (Sandown South)
Michael Beston (Con) (Shanklin Central)
Chris Quirk (Con) (Shanklin South)
Chris Jarman (Empowering Islanders, elected as Independent) (Totland and Colwell)
Ed Blake (Con) (Ventnor and St. Lawrence) – elected in by-election (21.12.2023)
*Sarah Redrup (Lib Dem) (Wootton Bridge) – elected in by-election (24.08.2023)
Rodney Downer (Alliance Group (Independent)) (Wroxall, Lowtherville and Bonchurch)

[carolus]

Council elected in 2021: 18 Con, 13 Ind, 2 Green, 2 Island Independent Network, 1 Lab, 1 LD, 1 Our Island, 1 Vectis
Current council: 16 Con, 8 Ind (Alliance), 4 LD, 3 Empowering Islanders, 2 Green, 2 IIN, 1 Ind, 1 Independent Labour, 1 Lab, 1 OU

The Empowering Islander in Freshwater North & Yarmouth was elected as Con, the ones in Freshwater South and Totland & Colwell as Ind.
The LD in Ryde Appleby & Elmfield was elected as Ind.
The Independent Labour in Pan & Barton was elected as Ind.

Byelections:
2022, Nov - Brighstone, Calbourne & Shalfleet - LD gain from Con by 29.1%
2023, Aug - Wootton Bridge - LD gain from Vectis by 18.55% over Con
2023, Dec - Ventnor & St Lawrence - Con hold by 3.9% over Lab

Close wards:
Carisbrooke & Gunville - Green win by 4.1% over Con
Cowes North - Lab win by 3.1% over Con
Freshwater South - Ind win by 4.1% over Con
Haylands & Swanmore - Con win by 1.6% over Ind
Nettlestone & Seaview - Ind win by 6.2% over Con
Osborne - Con win by 0.4% over Green, 7.9% over Ind
Ryde South East - Con win by 8.7% over Lab
Sandown North - Ind win by 5.3% over Con
Totland & Colwell - Ind win by 0.8% over Con

Candidate totals: 39 Con, 28 Lab, 19 Green, 12 LD, 6 IIN, 5 OI, 3 Vectis, 1 Freedom Alliance, 1 TUSC, 22 Ind.

Another one where I expect chaos - lots of groups, lots of narrow results, lots of wins on small vote shares, etc. Some signs in the byelections that there may be a bit more LD organisation, and of course Labour won the Isle of Wight West consituency in July.