Cornwall

[AdminSTB]

Cornwall

[listener]

Who is retiring?

CORNWALL

Elected in 2021 (87): Con 47, Independent 16, Lib Dem 13, Lab 5, Mebyon Kernow 5, Green Party 1

Retiring Councillors (as at 09.11.2024) (87): Con and Independent Con Aligned 44 (Con 43, Independent Con 1), Independent 15, Lib Dem 13,
Mebyon Kernow/Green Group 6 (Mebyon Kernow 5, Green Party 1), Lab 5, Non-aligned 3, Unaffiliated 1


Adrian Parsons (Lib Dem) (Altarnun and Stoke Climsland)
*Pat Rogerson (Lib Dem) (Bodmin St. Mary’s and St. Leonard)
Leigh Frost (Lib Dem) (Bodmin St. Petroc’s)
Peter La Broy (Independent, elected as Lib Dem) (Bude)
Andrew Long (Mebyon Kernow) (Callington and St. Dominic)
*Dorothy Kirk (Lab) (Calstock)
Peter Perry (Con) (Camborne Roskear and Tuckingmill)
Paul White (Independent) (Camborne Trelowarren)
John Morgan (Con) (Camborne West and Treswithian)
Barry Jordan (Con) (Camelford and Boscastle)
John Bastin (Con) (Constantine, Mabe and Mawnan)
*Loveday Jenkin (Mebyon Kernow) (Crowan, Sithney and Wendron)
Laurie Magowan (Lab) (Falmouth Arwenack)
Alan Jewell (Con) (Falmouth Boslowick)
Alan Rowe (Lab) (Falmouth Penwerris) – elected in by-election (19.09.2024)
David Saunby (Independent) (Falmouth Trescobeas and Budock)
Martyn Alvey (Con) (Feock and Kea)
*Sally Anne Weedon (Con) (Four Lanes, Beacon and Troon)
Andy Virr (Con) (Fowey, Tywardreath and Par)
David Harris (Con) (Gloweth, Malabar and Shortlanesend)
Lionel Pascoe (Con) (Gwinear-Gwithian and Hayle East)
Peter Channon (Con) (Hayle West)
Mike Thomas (Independent) (Helston North)
Guy Foreman (Con) (Helston South and Meneage)
David Crabtree (Con) (Illogan and Portreath)
Brian Clemens (Independent) (Land’s End)
*Jennifer Cruse (Con) (Lanivet, Blisland and Bodmin St. Lawrence)
John Thomas, MBE (Independent) (Lanner, Stithians and Gwennap)
Adam Paynter (Independent) (Launceston North and North Petherwin)
John Conway (Non-aligned, elected as Con) (Launceston South)
Nick Craker (Con) (Liskeard Central)
*Jane Pascoe (Con) (Liskeard South and Dobwalls)
John Martin (Lib Dem) (Long Rock, Marazion and St. Erth) – elected in by-election (16.02.2023)
Armand Toms (Independent) (Looe East and Deviock)
Jim Candy (Lib Dem) (Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos and Lanteglos) – elected in by-election
(04.04.2024)
Colin Martin (Lib Dem) (Lostwithiel and Lanreath)
Andrew George, MP (Lib Dem) (Ludgvan, Madron, Gulval and Heamoor)
*Sharon Daw (Con) (Lynher)
James Mustoe (Con) (Mevagissey and St. Austell Bay)
*Thalia Marrington, elected as Thalia Hughes (Lib Dem) (Mousehole, Newlyn and St. Buryan)
Anthony Soady (Con) (Mullion and St. Keverne)
Peter Williams (Con) (Mylor, Perranarworthal and Ponsanooth)
Louis Gardner (Con) (Newquay Central and Pentire)
Kevin Towill (Con) (Newquay Porth and Tretherras)
Oliver Monk (Con) (Newquay Trenance)
Stephen Rushworth (Con) (Padstow)
*Tamsyn Widdon (Green Party) (Penryn)
Matthew Luke (Mebyon Kernow) (Penwithick and Boscoppa)
Tim Dwelly (Independent) (Penzance East)
Jim McKenna (Independent) (Penzance Promenade)
Steve Arthur (Non-aligned, elected as Con) (Perranporth)
Philip Desmonde (Con) (Pool and Tehidy)
John Keeling, MBE (Con) (Porthleven, Breage and Germoe)
*Nicky Chopak (Lib Dem) (Poundstock)
*Karen Glasson (Con) (Probus and St. Erme)
*Kate Ewert (Lab) (Rame Peninsula and St. Germans)
Connor Donnithorne (Con) (Redruth Central, Carharrack and St. Day)
Stephen Barnes (Lab) (Redruth North)
*Barbara Ellenbroek (Con) (Redruth South)
Peter Guest (Con) (Roche and Bugle)
Pete Mitchell (Lib Dem) (St. Agnes)
Jordan Rowse (Con) (St. Austell Bethel and Holmbush)
*Anne Double (Con) (St. Austell Central and Govier)
Richard Williams-Pears, elected as Richard Pears (Con) (St. Austell Poltair and Mount Charles)
*Pauline Giles (Con) (St. Blazey)
Phil Seeva, elected as Phil Seevaratnam (Con) (St. Cleer and Menheniot)
Paul Wills (Independent Con, elected as Independent) (St. Columb Major, St. Mawgan and St. Wenn)
John Fitter (Independent) (St. Columb Minor and Colan)
Dick Cole (Mebyon Kernow) (St. Dennis and St. Enoder)
Julian German (Independent) (St. Goran, Tregony and the Roseland)
*Linda Taylor (Con) (St. Ives East, Lelant and Carbis Bay)
Andrew Mitchell (Independent) (St. Ives West and Towednack)
Michael Bunney (Mebyon Kernow) (St. Mewan and Grampound)
Adrian Harvey (Non-aligned, elected as Con) (St. Newlyn East, Cubert and Goonhavern)
Mike McLening (Con) (St. Stephen-in-Brannel)
Dominic Fairman (Lib Dem) (St. Teath and Tintagel)
*Hilary Frank (Lib Dem) (Saltash Essa)
*Sheila Lennox-Boyd (Con) (Saltash Tamar)
Martin Worth (Con) (Saltash Trematon and Landrake)
Shorne Tilbey (Con) (Stratton, Kilkhampton and Morwenstow)
*Dulcie Tudor (Unaffiliated, elected as Independent) (Threemilestone and Chacewater)
John Tivnan (Con) (Torpoint)
Rob Nolan (Lib Dem) (Truro Boscawen and Redannick)
Christopher Wells (Con) (Truro Moresk and Trehaverne)
Loic Rich (Independent) (Truro Tregolls)
*Carol Mould (Con) (Wadebridge East and St. Minver)
Robin Moorcroft (Independent) (Wadebridge West and St. Mabyn)

[carolus]

Council elected in 2021: 47 Con, 16 Ind, 13 LD, 5 Lab, 5 MK, 1 Green
Current council: 43 Con, 13 LD, 5 Lab, 5 MK, 1 Green, 15 Ind, 3 Non-aligned, 1 Independent Conservative Aligned, 1 Unaffiliated

The non-aligned in Launceston South, Perranporth, and "St Newlyn East, Cubert & Goonhavern" were elected as Con.
The Ind in Bude was elected as LD.

Byelections:
2023, Feb - Long Rock, Marazion & St Erth - LD gain by 17.3% from Con.
2024, Apr - Looe West, Pelynt, Lansallos & Lanteglos - LD hold by 14.1% over Con.
2024, Sep - Falmouth Penwerris - Lab hold by 14.5% over LD.

Close wards:
Callington & St Dominic - MK win by 8.9% over Con
Falmouth Arwenack - Lab win by 5.5% over Con
Falmouth Boslowick - Con win by 6.7% over Lab
Falmouth Trescobeas & Budock - Ind win by 0.7% over Lab, 6.7% over Con
Hayle West - Con win by 7% over Ind, 10.5% over MK
Helston North - Ind win by 2.5% over Green, 6% over Con
Lanivet, Blisland & Bodmin St Lawrence - Con win by 0.3% over LD
Launceston South - Con win by 0.2% over LD
Lostwithiel & Lanreath - LD win by 1.7% over Con
Mousehole, Newlyn & St Buryan - LD win by 2.8%
Mullion & St Keverne - Con win by 3.9% over Ind
Mylor, Perrnarworthal & Ponsanooth - Con win by 2% over LD
Padstow - Con win by 1.8% over Ind
Penryn - Green win by 6.9% over Lab, 7.9% over Ind
Penwithick & Boscoppa - MK win by 9% over Con
Portleven, Breage & Germoe - Con win by 4.4% over Ind
Rame Peninsula & St Germans - Lab win by 2.2% over Con
Redruth North - Lab win by 0.5% over Con
Redruth South - Con win by 6% over Ind
Roche & Bugle - Con win by 4.6% over MK, 5.5% over Ind
Saltash Tamar - Con win by 4.4% over Ind
St Austell Central & Gover - Con win by 9.5% over Ind
St Columb Major, St Mawgan & St Wenn - Ind win by 9.8% over Con
St Columb Minor & Colan - Ind win by 3.1% over Con
St Teath & Tintagel - LD win by 9.4% over Con
Stratton, Kilkhampton & Morwenstow - Con win by 6.6% over LD
Threemilestone & Chacewater - Ind win by 7% over Con, 9.2% over Green
Truro Moresk & Trehaverne - Con win by 1.2% over Ind, 8.6% over Lab

Candidate totals: 85 Con, 70 LD, 69 Green, 57 Lab, 19 MK, 4 Reform UK, 3 TUSC, 2 Freedom Alliance, 2 Liberal, 1 UKIP, 51 Ind, 2 No Description

Not only are there a huge number of "close" wards, but they're close in all sorts of directions. There are also various other wards where the winning total was less than even 40%, but the opposition was sufficiently split that no single party got close. Add in the parliamentary changes in the summer, and I wouldn't like to try and predict what happens here in great detail.

[Tony Otim]

Plus you've got to figure that they'll be significantly more than 4 Reform candidates this time round, which will add in even more vote splitting and uncertainty. Probably quite a few seats won on very low vote shares.