Surrey

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Surrey

[olympian95]

One to watch, especially if Reform get their act together and stand in a few divisions which has the potential to really hurt the Tories. The Lib Dems have no county councillors in some places where they now have MPs eg Surrey Heath and Epsom & Ewell, so there is definitely scope for them to gain here.

[akmd]

I think this is a likely Con loss to NOC. They did relatively poorly in Surrey in 2021 and have lost more seats in by-election losses since then. I also think this is the sort of area where Badenoch as Tory leader will not help them to recover much in the way of support.

[bigfatron]

Elected in May 2021 - total seats 81:

Conservative: 47 (-14)
Lib Dem: 14 ( +5)
Ratepayers 12 ( +4)
Independents 4 ( +2)
Green 2 ( +1)
Labour 2 ( +1)

Since that date the Lib Dems have gained two seats from the Tories through by-elections (Sunbury Common & Ashford Common, and Walton S & Oatlands), and the Ratepayers/Independents have gained net one from the Tories via defection, leaving the Tories with a current majority of seven.

[sanders]

Nov 8, 2024 15:41:42 GMT bigfatron said:

Elected in May 2021 - total seats 81:

Conservative: 47 (-14)
Lib Dem: 14 ( +5)
Ratepayers 12 ( +4)
Independents 4 ( +2)
Green 2 ( +1)
Labour 2 ( +1)

Since that date the Lib Dems have gained two seats from the Tories through by-elections (Sunbury Common & Ashford Common, and Walton S & Oatlands), and the Ratepayers/Independents have gained net one from the Tories via defection, leaving the Tories with a current majority of seven.

Eh? Nobody has paid rates for decades. 

[Tony Otim]

New boundaries will apply here:

www.lgbce.org.uk/all-reviews/surrey

[stodge]

Nov 8, 2024 15:41:42 GMT bigfatron said:

Elected in May 2021 - total seats 81:

Conservative: 47 (-14)
Lib Dem: 14 ( +5)
Ratepayers 12 ( +4)
Independents 4 ( +2)
Green 2 ( +1)
Labour 2 ( +1)

Since that date the Lib Dems have gained two seats from the Tories through by-elections (Sunbury Common & Ashford Common, and Walton S & Oatlands), and the Ratepayers/Independents have gained net one from the Tories via defection, leaving the Tories with a current majority of seven.

Unfortunately, it's a little more complicated than that.

mycouncil.surreycc.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=16&RPID=225340309

What you call "Ratepayers" are actually Residents' Associations in places like Epsom & Ewell, Farnham, Ashtead, Nork and The Dittons who have won odd Wards and decided, after 2021, to form a joint group.

The current political groupings on SCC are:

Conservative 44
Residents & Independents 16
Liberal Democrats 16
Labour 2
Green 2
Non-Aligned Independent 1

Technically, the Conservative majority is 7 down from the 13 after the 2021 election.

Some of the "Ratepayers" won in seats not contested by other parties and some didn't. In Farnham, for example, the LDs and Greens didn't contest the seats won by the Farnham Residents but that wasn't the case everywhere.

In terms of votes, the Conservatives won 42.2%, Liberal Democrats 24.7% and the various Independents & Residents 14.6% but only the Conservatives fielded a full slate of candidates I believe.

[batman]

I'll be surprised if this isn't a hung council. At present the Tories & Lib Dems both hold half a dozen seats (yes I know one is partly in Hampshire) here in Parliament, and none of the Tory majorities is that impressive.

[stodge]

Nov 8, 2024 17:55:00 GMT batman said:

I'll be surprised if this isn't a hung council. At present the Tories & Lib Dems both hold half a dozen seats (yes I know one is partly in Hampshire) here in Parliament, and none of the Tory majorities is that impressive.

Much will depend on whether there is any scope for an electoral "arrangement" between the non-Conservative groups. Simply having the MP doesn't guarantee local success but I suspect the LDs will be hoping to build on their July advances.

Even then, the Conservatives still "won" Surrey I believe - someone did work out the vote shares including the cross-county seats of Farnham & Bordon and Windsor.

[Pete Whitehead]

Nov 8, 2024 18:12:52 GMT stodge said:

Nov 8, 2024 17:55:00 GMT batman said:

I'll be surprised if this isn't a hung council. At present the Tories & Lib Dems both hold half a dozen seats (yes I know one is partly in Hampshire) here in Parliament, and none of the Tory majorities is that impressive.

Much will depend on whether there is any scope for an electoral "arrangement" between the non-Conservative groups. Simply having the MP doesn't guarantee local success but I suspect the LDs will be hoping to build on their July advances.

Even then, the Conservatives still "won" Surrey I believe - someone did work out the vote shares including the cross-county seats of Farnham & Bordon and Windsor.

No the Lib Dems carried Surrey vote-2012.proboards.com/post/1535074/thread
Even if you included the 'Borden' area in the figures, the Lib Dems are ahead

[Pete Whitehead]

The boundary changes look very minor. No new divisions and no existing divisions are abolished. Some minor boundary changes and the odd name change in some areas, no change at all in many.

[listener]

Who is retiring?

SURREY

Elected in 2021 (81): Con 47, Independents and Residents Associations 16 (Residents’ Associations 13, Independents 3), Lib Dem 14, Lab 2, Green Party 2

Retiring Councillors (as at 09.11.2024) (81): Con 44, Residents’ Associations/Independents 16 (Residents’ Associations 13, Independents 3),
Lib Dem 16, Lab 2, Green Party 2, Non-Aligned Independent 1



Elmbridge

David Lewis (Con) (Cobham)
Steve Bax (Con) (East Molesey and Esher)
John O’Reilly (Con) (Hersham)
Mark Sugden (Con) (Hinchley Wood, Claygate and Oxshott)
Nick Darby (Dittons and Weston Green Residents) (The Dittons)
*Rachael Lake, BEM (Con) (Walton)
Ashley Tilling (Lib Dem) (Walton South and Oatlands) – elected in by-election (04.05.2023)
Ernest Mallett, MBE (The Molesey Residents Association) (West Molesey)
Tim Oliver, OBE (Con) (Weybridge)

Epsom and Ewell

Steven McCormick (Residents Associations of Epsom and Ewell) (Epsom Town and Downs)
*Bernie Muir (Con) (Epsom West)
John Beckett (Residents Associations of Epsom and Ewell) (Ewell)
Eber Kington (Residents Associations of Epsom and Ewell) (Ewell Court, Auriol and Cuddington)
*Jan Mason (Residents Associations of Epsom and Ewell) (West Ewell)

Guildford

*Carla Morson (Lib Dem) (Ash)
George Potter (Lib Dem) (Guildford East)
*Julia McShane (Lib Dem) (Guildford North)
*Fiona Davidson (Residents for Guildford and Villages) (Guildford South-East)
*Angela Goodwin (Lib Dem) (Guildford South-West)
*Fiona White (Lib Dem) (Guildford West)
Dennis Booth (Residents for Guildford and Villages) (Horsleys) – elected in by-election (19.10.2023)
Matt Furniss (Con) (Shalford)
Robert Hughes (Con) (Shere)
Keith Witham (Con) (Worplesdon)

Mole Valley

Chris Townsend (Ashtead Independent, Working with Ashtead Residents) (Ashtead)
*Clare Curran (Con) (Bookham and Fetcham West)
*Hazel Watson (Lib Dem) (Dorking Hills)
*Helyn Clack (Con) (Dorking Rural)
Stephen Cooksey (Lib Dem) (Dorking South and the Holmwoods)
Tim Hall (Con) (Leatherhead and Fetcham East)

Reigate and Banstead

Luke Bennett (Con) (Banstead, Woodmansterne and Chipstead)
*Catherine Baart (Green Party)) (Earlswood and Reigate South)
Jordan Beech (Con) (Horley East)
Andy Lynch (Con) (Horley West, Salfords and Sidlow)
Frank Kelly (Con) (Merstham and Banstead South)
Nick Harrison (Nork and Tattenhams Residents’ Associations) (Nork and Tattenhams)
Jonathan Essex (Green Party) (Redhill East)
*Natalie Bramhall (Con) (Redhill West and Meadvale)
Victor Lewanski (Con) (Reigate)
*Rebecca Paul, MP (Con) (Tadworth, Walton and Kingswood)

Runnymede

John Furey (Con) (Addlestone)
Mark Nuti (Con) (Chertsey)
Robert King (Lab) (Egham)
*Marisa Heath (Con) (Englefield Green)
Jonathan Hulley (Con) (Foxhills, Thorpe and Virginia Water)
Scott Lewis (Con) (Woodham and New Haw)

Spelthorne

*Joanne Sexton (Independent) (Ashford)
*Maureen Attewell (Con) (Laleham and Shepperton)
Buddhi Weerasinghe (Con) (Lower Sunbury and Halliford)
*Sinead Mooney (Con) (Staines)
*Denise Turner Stewart (Con) (Staines South and Ashford West)
Robert Evans, OBE (Lab) (Stanwell and Stanwell Moor)
Harry Boparai (Lib Dem) (Sunbury Common and Ashford Common) – elected in by-election (30.11.2022)

Surrey Heath

Richard Tear (Con) (Bagshot, Windlesham and Chobham)
Trefor Hogg (Con) (Camberley East)
David Lewis (Con) (Camberley West)
Paul Deach (Con) (Frimley Green and Mytchett)
Edward Hawkins (Con) (Heatherside and Parkside)
*Rebecca Jennings-Evans (Con) (Lightwater, West End and Bisley)

Tandridge

Jeremy Webster (Con) (Caterham Hill)
Jeffrey Gray (Lib Dem) (Caterham Valley)
Chris Farr (Independent) (Godstone)
*Lesley Steeds (Con) (Lingfield)
Cameron McIntosh (Con) (Oxted)
*Becky Rush (Con) (Warlingham)

Waverley

*Liz Townsend (Lib Dem) (Cranleigh and Ewhurst)
Andy MacLeod (Farnham Residents) (Farnham Central)
*Catherine Powell (Farnham Residents) (Farnham North)
*Michaela Martin (Farnham Residents) (Farnham South)
*Penny Rivers (Lib Dem) (Godalming North)
Paul Follows (Lib Dem) (Godalming South, Milford and Witley)
John Robini (Lib Dem) (Haslemere)
Kevin Deanus (Con) (Waverley Eastern Villages)
Peter Harmer (Con) (Waverley Western Villages)

Woking

Lance Spencer (Lib Dem) (Goldsworth East and Horsell Village)
Saj Hussain (Con) (Knaphill and Goldsworth West)
*Amanda Boote (Independent) (The Byfleets)
Riasat Khan (Independent (Not Specified), elected as Con) (Woking North)
Will Forster, MP (Lib Dem) (Woking South)
*Liz Bowes (Con) (Woking South East)
*Ayesha Azad (Con) (Woking South West)