Wisconsin

[stb12]

10 electoral college votes

[markgoodair]

On August 27, the Wisconsin Elections Commission removed Shiva Ayyadurai from the ballot as an independent candidate for president. He has enough valid signatures but he was challenged on the grounds that he was born in India

[sanders]

Wisconsin seems to be the bluest of the 'big three' states this year. That feels right quite honestly. The Supreme Court race in the Badger State last year delivered a huge win for Democrats. There was also a decent swing to the Democratic incumbent,. Tony Evers, in the 2022 gubernatorial election. It's true Republicans gained the 3rd District, for the first time since 1994, in 2022, but it was a narrow enough win for Democrats to have a shot at defeating Derrick van Orden and win the seat back eventually. The new 1st and 3rd Districts could go Democratic in a. good year, and the Dems have a decent chance of winning the State House this year. That would leave only the State Senate in Republican hands, since the court has had a liberal majority since last spring. Republicans barely held Ron Johnson's Senate seat in 2022.

Someone else can explain why Michigan and Pennsylvania seem better for Donald Trump, relatively speaking than Wisconsin. J.D. Vance's home state (Ohio) borders the Keystone State (PA) but can that really be why? Fracking is an issue in Western Pennsylvania, but how many of those people vote Democrat anyway? There are a lot of Reagan Democrats in Western PA, but they were very much a historical phenomenon. Western PA has been drifting right for decades, and there are far more Republicans there than in Southeastern Pennsylvania and Philadelphia suburbia these days than say, when Arlen Specter was a Senator.
Michigan - I know it's 3% Muslim, so Gaza may be a big issue, especially for Arab Americans who dominate in Dearborn, in particular. 

[stb12]

Sept 9, 2024 12:03:59 GMT sanders said:

Wisconsin seems to be the bluest of the 'big three' states this year. That feels right quite honestly. The Supreme Court race in the Badger State last year delivered a huge win for Democrats. There was also a decent swing to the Democratic incumbent,. Tony Evers, in the 2022 gubernatorial election. It's true Republicans gained the 3rd District, for the first time since 1994, in 2022, but it was a narrow enough win for Democrats to have a shot at defeating Derrick van Orden and win the seat back eventually. The new 1st and 3rd Districts could go Democratic in a. good year, and the Dems have a decent chance of winning the State House this year. That would leave only the State Senate in Republican hands, since the court has had a liberal majority since last spring. Republicans barely held Ron Johnson's Senate seat in 2022.

Someone else can explain why Michigan and Pennsylvania seem better for Donald Trump, relatively speaking than Wisconsin. J.D. Vance's home state (Ohio) borders the Keystone State (PA) but can that really be why? Fracking is an issue in Western Pennsylvania, but how many of those people vote Democrat anyway? There are a lot of Reagan Democrats in Western PA, but they were very much a historical phenomenon. Western PA has been drifting right for decades, and there are far more Republicans there than in Southeastern Pennsylvania and Philadelphia suburbia these days than say, when Arlen Specter was a Senator.
Michigan - I know it's 3% Muslim, so Gaza may be a big issue, especially for Arab Americans who dominate in Dearborn, in particular. 

I guess the appeal Trump had in these places that so many never saw coming in 2016 is still there to a large extent? Even with what you say about Wisconsin that poll still has him in the margin of error there

Certainly it seems likely that Trump will outrun the GOP challengers in those Senate races by some distance at least

[iain]

Wisconsin has also had bigger polling errors in recent years than Michigan and Pennsylvania, so it may be as simple as that.

[sanders]

Republicans spent a lot of money winning WI-3 in 2022. Dems are seriously going for it this time:

If Harris wins WI by 3-4, it's possible she carries WI-3 and then the Democrat probably wins. Van Orden's team spending $7m on a House seat in 2022 is batshit.

[stb12]

There are apparently some nerves growing amongst the Democrats about the Senate race here, and the Cook Political report has moved it to a Toss up Rating

www.axios.com/2024/10/04/wisconsin-senate-race-baldwin-hovde

Although there's been some narrow polling Baldwin has still been ahead in them all as far as I can tell, so i'd have thought Hovde would really need to start leading some polls soon for winning to be realistic. However he's rich enough to pour more of his own money in like Ron Johnson did to first win in 2010 against the odds so it's not impossible and there may still be uncertainty over Trump's coattails influence

[sanders]

Oct 11, 2024 12:30:39 GMT stb12 said:

There are apparently some nerves growing amongst the Democrats about the Senate race here, and the Cook Political report has moved it to a Toss up Rating

www.axios.com/2024/10/04/wisconsin-senate-race-baldwin-hovde

Although there's been some narrow polling Baldwin has still been ahead in them all as far as I can tell, so i'd have thought Hovde would really need to start leading some polls soon for winning to be realistic. However he's rich enough to pour more of his own money in like Ron Johnson did to first win in 2010 against the odds so it's not impossible and there may still be uncertainty over Trump's coattails influence

Wasserman labelling this toss-up surprised me. Hoevde is a strong candidate, however. Baldwin is fairly low-key as Senator. She did win by 10% in 2018. I don’t see much deviation here. If Trump wins, Hoevde probably wins. As it is, Harris seems favoured. It’ll likely be tight either way.

[stb12]

Senate debate here tonight, much as debates have minimal influence with Hovde seemingly closing the gap it could maybe have an impact

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4939802-wisconsin-senate-race-tightens/

[sanders]

Oct 18, 2024 10:13:13 GMT stb12 said:

Senate debate here tonight, much as debates have minimal influence with Hovde seemingly closing the gap or could maybe have an impact

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4939802-wisconsin-senate-race-tightens/

I was looking into Wisconsin's race. Republicans haven't won this seat since 1952! Compare that to the other races. Michigan elected a Republican Senator in 1994, Brown and Casey both unseated Republican incumbents on Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2006, along with Tester in Montana. Jacky Rosen unseated a Republican in 2018. Even Maryland's Senate seat up this year elected a Republican more recently than the Wisconsin seat up for election (Maryland re-elected Charles Mathias in 1980). The open seat in New Jersey also last went to the Republicans in 1952. 

[stb12]

Oct 18, 2024 10:20:20 GMT sanders said:

Oct 18, 2024 10:13:13 GMT stb12 said:

Senate debate here tonight, much as debates have minimal influence with Hovde seemingly closing the gap or could maybe have an impact

thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4939802-wisconsin-senate-race-tightens/

I was looking into Wisconsin's race. Republicans haven't won this seat since 1952! Compare that to the other races. Michigan elected a Republican Senator in 1994, Brown and Casey both unseated Republican incumbents on Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2006, along with Tester in Montana. Jacky Rosen unseated a Republican in 2018. Even Maryland's Senate seat up this year elected a Republican more recently than the Wisconsin seat up for election (Maryland re-elected Charles Mathias in 1980). The open seat in New Jersey also last went to the Republicans in 1952. 

Indeed Wisconsin is quite a strange place electorally, it’s been noted how there’s been some very left wing and very right wing Senators over the years. Also it stopped voting Republican at presidential level after Reagan until Trump appeared

[sanders]

Oct 18, 2024 10:26:08 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 18, 2024 10:20:20 GMT sanders said:

I was looking into Wisconsin's race. Republicans haven't won this seat since 1952! Compare that to the other races. Michigan elected a Republican Senator in 1994, Brown and Casey both unseated Republican incumbents on Ohio and Pennsylvania in 2006, along with Tester in Montana. Jacky Rosen unseated a Republican in 2018. Even Maryland's Senate seat up this year elected a Republican more recently than the Wisconsin seat up for election (Maryland re-elected Charles Mathias in 1980). The open seat in New Jersey also last went to the Republicans in 1952. 

Indeed Wisconsin is quite a strange place electorally, it’s been noted how there’s been some very left wing and very right wing Senators over the years. Also it stopped voting Republican at presidential level after Reagan until Trump appeared

Very narrowly in 2000 and 2004. I also believe Milwaukee had the most recent socialist mayor in the US in the form of Frank Zeidler. The other thing is how Wisconsin went from the bluest rust belt state in 1988 to the reddest by 2016 (in 1988 even Illinois voted Republican!).

[stb12]

Oct 18, 2024 10:32:38 GMT sanders said:

Oct 18, 2024 10:26:08 GMT stb12 said:

Indeed Wisconsin is quite a strange place electorally, it’s been noted how there’s been some very left wing and very right wing Senators over the years. Also it stopped voting Republican at presidential level after Reagan until Trump appeared

Very narrowly in 2000 and 2004. I also believe Milwaukee had the most recent socialist mayor in the US in the form of Frank Zeidler. The other thing is how Wisconsin went from the bluest rust belt state in 1988 to the reddest by 2016 (in 1988 even Illinois voted Republican!).

Romney must have been hoping for a better result there than he got with Paul Ryan on the ticket

[sanders]

Oct 18, 2024 10:34:20 GMT stb12 said:

Oct 18, 2024 10:32:38 GMT sanders said:

Very narrowly in 2000 and 2004. I also believe Milwaukee had the most recent socialist mayor in the US in the form of Frank Zeidler. The other thing is how Wisconsin went from the bluest rust belt state in 1988 to the reddest by 2016 (in 1988 even Illinois voted Republican!).

Romney must have been hoping for a better result there than he got with Paul Ryan on the ticket

Indeed and Republicans had a strong Senate candidate in the Badger State in 2012 in the form of former Governor Tommy Thompson. Yes, that's a real person. 

[stb12]

Emerson Wisconsin poll

[sanders]

Pretty repsectable for Harris in Wisconsin. 270-268 or 276-262 victory looking possible. 270-268 if Harris wins the rust belt and 276-262 if she wins Nevada. I suspect this election will be the last time Democrats win through the rust belt without winning AZ or NV or GA or NC if they do it since the 2032 redistricting will likely shave some Electoral Votes of the rust belt states and Democrats will need to look elsewhere for a path to 270. Historians may look back at this result as a last hurrah for Democrats in some of these Midwest states if Harris narrowly ekes out a win in say, Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Nevada may become the next Florida after 2024.

[markgoodair]

On October 21, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. asked the U.S. Supreme Court to order the Wisconsin Election Commission to remove his name from the ballot. The State Supreme Court had kept him on against his will. Kennedy v Wisconsin Elections Commission, 24A399. . It is based on the argument that Wisconsin discriminates against independent candidates by letting party nominees withdraw, whereas independents can’t withdraw after the filing deadline unless they die.
The U.S. Supreme Court has set an October 28 deadline for a response.

[sanders]

An interesting bellwether county to watch. Joe Biden narrowly won it back. Door County is the other one.

[sanders]

This is basically my prediction too. Harris might do better in Ozaukee. That's the county north of Milwaukee.