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Wisconsin
Sept 5, 2024 23:20:02 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:20:02 GMT
10 electoral college votes
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Post by markgoodair on Sept 9, 2024 8:40:38 GMT
On August 27, the Wisconsin Elections Commission removed Shiva Ayyadurai from the ballot as an independent candidate for president. He has enough valid signatures but he was challenged on the grounds that he was born in India
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 12:03:59 GMT
Wisconsin seems to be the bluest of the 'big three' states this year. That feels right quite honestly. The Supreme Court race in the Badger State last year delivered a huge win for Democrats. There was also a decent swing to the Democratic incumbent,. Tony Evers, in the 2022 gubernatorial election. It's true Republicans gained the 3rd District, for the first time since 1994, in 2022, but it was a narrow enough win for Democrats to have a shot at defeating Derrick van Orden and win the seat back eventually. The new 1st and 3rd Districts could go Democratic in a. good year, and the Dems have a decent chance of winning the State House this year. That would leave only the State Senate in Republican hands, since the court has had a liberal majority since last spring. Republicans barely held Ron Johnson's Senate seat in 2022.
Someone else can explain why Michigan and Pennsylvania seem better for Donald Trump, relatively speaking than Wisconsin. J.D. Vance's home state (Ohio) borders the Keystone State (PA) but can that really be why? Fracking is an issue in Western Pennsylvania, but how many of those people vote Democrat anyway? There are a lot of Reagan Democrats in Western PA, but they were very much a historical phenomenon. Western PA has been drifting right for decades, and there are far more Republicans there than in Southeastern Pennsylvania and Philadelphia suburbia these days than say, when Arlen Specter was a Senator. Michigan - I know it's 3% Muslim, so Gaza may be a big issue, especially for Arab Americans who dominate in Dearborn, in particular.
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Wisconsin
Sept 9, 2024 13:12:56 GMT
via mobile
Post by stb12 on Sept 9, 2024 13:12:56 GMT
Wisconsin seems to be the bluest of the 'big three' states this year. That feels right quite honestly. The Supreme Court race in the Badger State last year delivered a huge win for Democrats. There was also a decent swing to the Democratic incumbent,. Tony Evers, in the 2022 gubernatorial election. It's true Republicans gained the 3rd District, for the first time since 1994, in 2022, but it was a narrow enough win for Democrats to have a shot at defeating Derrick van Orden and win the seat back eventually. The new 1st and 3rd Districts could go Democratic in a. good year, and the Dems have a decent chance of winning the State House this year. That would leave only the State Senate in Republican hands, since the court has had a liberal majority since last spring. Republicans barely held Ron Johnson's Senate seat in 2022. Someone else can explain why Michigan and Pennsylvania seem better for Donald Trump, relatively speaking than Wisconsin. J.D. Vance's home state (Ohio) borders the Keystone State (PA) but can that really be why? Fracking is an issue in Western Pennsylvania, but how many of those people vote Democrat anyway? There are a lot of Reagan Democrats in Western PA, but they were very much a historical phenomenon. Western PA has been drifting right for decades, and there are far more Republicans there than in Southeastern Pennsylvania and Philadelphia suburbia these days than say, when Arlen Specter was a Senator. Michigan - I know it's 3% Muslim, so Gaza may be a big issue, especially for Arab Americans who dominate in Dearborn, in particular. I guess the appeal Trump had in these places that so many never saw coming in 2016 is still there to a large extent? Even with what you say about Wisconsin that poll still has him in the margin of error there Certainly it seems likely that Trump will outrun the GOP challengers in those Senate races by some distance at least
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,261
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Post by iain on Sept 9, 2024 14:02:56 GMT
Wisconsin has also had bigger polling errors in recent years than Michigan and Pennsylvania, so it may be as simple as that.
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Post by sanders on Sept 16, 2024 17:25:38 GMT
Republicans spent a lot of money winning WI-3 in 2022. Dems are seriously going for it this time: If Harris wins WI by 3-4, it's possible she carries WI-3 and then the Democrat probably wins. Van Orden's team spending $7m on a House seat in 2022 is batshit.
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