Ohio

[stb12]

17 electoral college votes

[sanders]

One potential bright spot for Dems in Ohio is OH-10. It's where Montgomery County (Dayton) is - Trump won that in 2016 but lost it in 2020. It's also where Springfield (famous for the Haitians eating dogs fake news story). Mike Turner seems like a popular Republican incumbent, but Dems may yet win this seat. I'd expect Republicans to try to crack Dayton in 2032 if they get the cache, but an independent redistricting commission is on the ballot in Ohio this year. Republicans could've won 93% of the Buckeye State's seats in 2022, having seriously gerrymandered the state. In the event, they lost Tim Ryan's old seat, and were held off by Greg Landsman in OH-01 (Cincinnati) and veteran incumbent Marcy Kaptur in her Toledo seat. The Republicans got shellacked after nominating whacko J.R. Majewski. 

Needless to say, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown absolutely needs to carry OH-10 to win re-election. 

[stb12]

Sept 16, 2024 6:49:02 GMT sanders said:

One potential bright spot for Dems in Ohio is OH-10. It's where Montgomery County (Dayton) is - Trump won that in 2016 but lost it in 2020. It's also where Springfield (famous for the Haitians eating dogs fake news story). Mike Turner seems like a popular Republican incumbent, but Dems may yet win this seat. I'd expect Republicans to try to crack Dayton in 2032 if they get the cache, but an independent redistricting commission is on the ballot in Ohio this year. Republicans could've won 93% of the Buckeye State's seats in 2022, having seriously gerrymandered the state. In the event, they lost Tim Ryan's old seat, and were held off by Greg Landsman in OH-01 (Cincinnati) and veteran incumbent Marcy Kaptur in her Toledo seat. The Republicans got shellacked after nominating whacko J.R. Majewski. 

Needless to say, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown absolutely needs to carry OH-10 to win re-election. 

One positive for the GOP is that Majewski eventually dropped out of running again

[stb12]

RMG get some stick as a pollster so possibly very unreliable, but I believe this is the first public poll to have Bernie Moreno leading

[sanders]

Good poll for Sen. Brown here. I see this as Lean Democrat. There's just enough split-ticket voters left.

[stb12]