stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 5, 2024 23:13:20 GMT
16 electoral college votes
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Post by markgoodair on Sept 6, 2024 7:55:33 GMT
On September 5, a North Carolina State Trial Court refused to remove Robert F. Kennedy, Jr’s name from the ballot
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 6, 2024 8:06:52 GMT
On September 5, a North Carolina State Trial Court refused to remove Robert F. Kennedy, Jr’s name from the ballot From the sounds of it he’s not been able to get his name removed from any of the swing states so far? |
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 6:07:14 GMT
You can't compare to 2020 - Covid-19.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 9, 2024 10:36:21 GMT
And surely the Democrats are doing a *lot* more ground campaigning this time, for exactly that reason.
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 9, 2024 12:02:29 GMT
And surely the Democrats are doing a *lot* more ground campaigning this time, for exactly that reason. I read that the dems haven't thrown around a lot of money here as they're not quite convinced that can win. I might be wrong but I would be surprised if they do. Be the first time since Obama they win NC in the presidential election |
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 12:38:55 GMT
Democrats will probably win Governor easily. Mark Robinson (GOP nominee) is moronic. A chronic verbal diarrhoea sufferer methinks. Five tilt states according to polling. One of them is N. Carolina. Note the closeness of the polling. It's probably a boon for Democratic turnout. The Research Triangle holds the key. Charlotte, Durham Raleigh turnout will decide. Harris likely cuts the Cabarrus margin. Biden halved Trump's lead in 2020.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 9, 2024 12:55:49 GMT
And surely the Democrats are doing a *lot* more ground campaigning this time, for exactly that reason. I read that the dems haven't thrown around a lot of money here as they're not quite convinced that can win. I might be wrong but I would be surprised if they do. Be the first time since Obama they win NC in the presidential election There is an element of fools gold for the Democrats in North Carolina, although the margins tend to be tight they’ve lost all the Presidential and Senate races since 2008 despite them putting in heavy resources a lot of the time and polling favouring them in spells That’s not to say they they should simply forever give up on it but Harris’ polling surge hasn’t yet opened up a massive lead overall and if anything it’s maybe decreased slightly recently, so it still seems like the most sensible option is to focus on maintaining Biden’s states |
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Post by sanders on Sept 9, 2024 12:58:50 GMT
I read that the dems haven't thrown around a lot of money here as they're not quite convinced that can win. I might be wrong but I would be surprised if they do. Be the first time since Obama they win NC in the presidential election There is an element of fools gold for the Democrats in North Carolina, although the margins tend to be tight they’ve lost all the Presidential and Senate races since 2008 despite them putting in heavy resources a lot of the time and polling favouring them in spells That’s not to say they they should simply forever give up on it but Harris’ polling surge hasn’t yet opened up a massive lead overall and if anything it’s maybe decreased slightly recently, so it still seems like the most sensible option is to focus on maintaining Biden’s states It's like the GOP's Nevada. A state the other party targets. They perennially come up short. Though. Incidentally, NV has a GOP governor - NC's is Dem. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 9, 2024 13:00:10 GMT
Democrats will probably win Governor easily. Mark Robinson (GOP nominee) is moronic. A chronic verbal diarrhoea sufferer methinks. Five tilt states according to polling. One of them is N. Carolina. Note the closeness of the polling. It's probably a boon for Democratic turnout. The Research Triangle holds the key. Charlotte, Durham Raleigh turnout will decide. Harris likely cuts the Cabarrus margin. Biden halved Trump's lead in 2020. Robinson was elected Lieutenant Governor but the increased scrutiny of running for the top job seems to have killed him Of course governor races are still more likely to get split ticketing and Roy Cooper won twice while Trump carried it on the same ballot |
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Post by mattbewilson on Sept 9, 2024 13:04:49 GMT
There is an element of fools gold for the Democrats in North Carolina, although the margins tend to be tight they’ve lost all the Presidential and Senate races since 2008 despite them putting in heavy resources a lot of the time and polling favouring them in spells That’s not to say they they should simply forever give up on it but Harris’ polling surge hasn’t yet opened up a massive lead overall and if anything it’s maybe decreased slightly recently, so it still seems like the most sensible option is to focus on maintaining Biden’s states It's like the GOP's Nevada. A state the other party targets. They perennially come up short. Though. Incidentally, NV has a GOP governor - NC's is Dem. Nevada is trending to the GOP. It was one of the few states that didn't see a swing to Biden |
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Post by sanders on Sept 10, 2024 4:18:20 GMT
Golly gosh, Robinson is thumping hard. Morning Consult aren't the best, however. Similar to the Stein +11 poll. This should not be so lopsided. Gubernatorial ticket splitting still a thing. But we knew that before, obviously. Which other Democrats benefit from this? Obviously, this could benefit Harris somewhat. There's also Lt-Gov and A-G races. There's a Superintendent election in NC. I think Democrats can win that. Blue + North Carolina = Blorth Carolina, lol.
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 10, 2024 6:16:39 GMT
Golly gosh, Robinson is thumping hard. Morning Consult aren't the best, however. Similar to the Stein +11 poll. This should not be so lopsided. Gubernatorial ticket splitting still a thing. But we knew that before, obviously. Which other Democrats benefit from this? Obviously, this could benefit Harris somewhat. There's also Lt-Gov and A-G races. There's a Superintendent election in NC. I think Democrats can win that. Blue + North Carolina = Blorth Carolina, lol. It’ll most likely be tighter than that as a final result purely based on partisan leans, but Robinson certainly looks doomed |
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Post by sanders on Sept 10, 2024 6:20:21 GMT
Golly gosh, Robinson is thumping hard. Morning Consult aren't the best, however. Similar to the Stein +11 poll. This should not be so lopsided. Gubernatorial ticket splitting still a thing. But we knew that before, obviously. Which other Democrats benefit from this? Obviously, this could benefit Harris somewhat. There's also Lt-Gov and A-G races. There's a Superintendent election in NC. I think Democrats can win that. Blue + North Carolina = Blorth Carolina, lol. It’ll most likely be tighter than that as a final result purely based on partisan leans, but Robinson certainly looks doomed 50% for Josh Stein is excellent. Republicans' swing state governor nominees are crap. Wisconsin went from Democratic by 1% to a solid 5% lead for Evers in 2022. Pennsylvania elected a Republican in 2010, but was a landslide for Shapiro in 2022 (to the point where he almost got the VP nomination!). Michigan (you know, the swing state Trump won in 2016?) was a 10-point blowout for Gretchen Whitmer. The GOP even contrived to lose Arizona despite a top tier electable candidate in Karrin Taylor Robson, but they picked a nut job in the primary. The only bright spot was Nevada and the Silver State having the highest employment in the land during Covid-19 (circa 20%) probably helped Lombardo over the line. 2022 was the Democrats' best election for governors since *checks notes* 1986. There's a good chance of a net gain in governor's mansions this year, with the White Mountain State being very much in play with handsome Harris leads across New Hampshire for some time. Trump has even pulled out of contesting the Granite State this year, which may be the writing on the wall for Kelly Ayotte (who was already felled in a Presidential year). |
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Post by sanders on Sept 28, 2024 2:51:18 GMT
Jesus Christ look at that poll.
I think Robinson costs Trump dearly. Reverse coattails effect will doom him.
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johng
Labour
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Post by johng on Sept 28, 2024 7:52:52 GMT
Did you expect him to improve?
Anyway, the clickbait title is nonsense. Polling in NC has seen a moderate, but noticeable, move to Stein (Fox moving four points for example).
Stein already had a fairly decent out of MOE lead before the black Nazi porn thing came out. Several quality pollsters, including SurveyUSA, Fox and Fabrizio/Impact had him with a double digit lead.
For polls conducted since, it's been Stein +11 with Marist, +15 with Fox, and plus +17 with CNN/SRSS. NYT/Siena were in the middle of fieldwork when it came out and got Stein +10.
The effect on the presidential poll will likely be small, but a point or two might be enough to drag Harris over the line.
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Post by sanders on Sept 28, 2024 7:57:26 GMT
Did you expect him to improve? Anyway, the clickbait title is nonsense. Polling in NC has seen a moderate, but noticeable, move to Stein (Fox moving four points for example). Stein already had a fairly decent out of MOE lead before the black Nazi porn thing came out. Several quality pollsters, including SurveyUSA, Fox and Fabrizio/Impact had him with a double digit lead. For polls conducted since, it's been Stein +11 with Marist, +15 with Fox, and plus +17 with CNN/SRSS. NYT/Siena were in the middle of fieldwork when it came out and got Stein +10. The effect on the presidential poll will likely be small, but a point or two might be enough to drag Harris over the line. No, obviously I didn't expect that. He's the Doug Mastriano of 2024. Is he a Kamala Harris plant? The Dems are popping the champagne. NC Republicans struggle in gubernatorial elections. They won in 1988 and 2012. I can't think of other examples. NC has stayed blue down ballot. Robinson may help them win elsewhere. Josh Stein may carry Cabarrus County. Harris could win that one too. It's a suburban county outside Charlotte. Trump carried it by 9% previously. He won by 18% in 2016... |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Sept 28, 2024 12:18:03 GMT
Did you expect him to improve? Anyway, the clickbait title is nonsense. Polling in NC has seen a moderate, but noticeable, move to Stein (Fox moving four points for example). Stein already had a fairly decent out of MOE lead before the black Nazi porn thing came out. Several quality pollsters, including SurveyUSA, Fox and Fabrizio/Impact had him with a double digit lead. For polls conducted since, it's been Stein +11 with Marist, +15 with Fox, and plus +17 with CNN/SRSS. NYT/Siena were in the middle of fieldwork when it came out and got Stein +10. The effect on the presidential poll will likely be small, but a point or two might be enough to drag Harris over the line. No, obviously I didn't expect that. He's the Doug Mastriano of 2024. Is he a Kamala Harris plant? The Dems are popping the champagne. NC Republicans struggle in gubernatorial elections. They won in 1988 and 2012. I can't think of other examples. NC has stayed blue down ballot. Robinson may help them win elsewhere. Josh Stein may carry Cabarrus County. Harris could win that one too. It's a suburban county outside Charlotte. Trump carried it by 9% previously. He won by 18% in 2016... As expected we have a push to tie Robinson to Trump
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Post by sanders on Oct 9, 2024 17:35:00 GMT
This is a pretty massive number. Western North Carolina was pretty pro-Trump. Can things get worse for Republicans? They can't catch a break here.
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Post by markgoodair on Oct 24, 2024 8:20:16 GMT
This year, the North Carolina Libertarian Party has 28 nominees on the ballot for state legislative seats. That is more than any other minor party in any state.
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