New York

[stb12]

28 electoral college votes

[sanders]

New York will see the biggest pro-Trump swing in the country. That's because NYC is slated to lose 20% of it's population by 2030. I'll say more after the election. 

[johng]

Sept 14, 2024 6:23:47 GMT sanders said:

New York will see the biggest pro-Trump swing in the country. That's because NYC is slated to lose 20% of it's population by 2030. I'll say more after the election. 

NYC added over 600k residents between the 2010 census and the 2020 one. More than the next four largest American cities combined.

These estimates of decline are just that, estimates. The US Census' estimate was off by over 400k for 2020 compared to the number of people actually recorded. The current estimates are also based on Covid figures where there was a lot of movement to cheaper areas as people WFH with NYC salaries.

The death of NYC is overstated. 

Though with the Dems terrible 2022 performance in the state, despite it being a good year overall, it's possible it might have the biggest swing.

[sanders]

Sept 14, 2024 13:19:30 GMT johng said:

Sept 14, 2024 6:23:47 GMT sanders said:

New York will see the biggest pro-Trump swing in the country. That's because NYC is slated to lose 20% of it's population by 2030. I'll say more after the election. 

NYC added over 600k residents between the 2010 census and the 2020 one. More than the next four largest American cities combined.

These estimates of decline are just that, estimates. The US Census' estimate was off by over 400k for 2020 compared to the number of people actually recorded. The current estimates are also based on Covid figures where there was a lot of movement to cheaper areas as people WFH with NYC salaries.

The death of NYC is overstated. 

Though with the Dems terrible 2022 performance in the state, despite it being a good year overall, it's possible it might have the biggest swing.

They are estimates, but it is slated to lose three Electoral College votes in 2032. That's based on estimates as we know, but also some data from 2020 to present. 

[johng]

Sept 15, 2024 12:06:45 GMT sanders said:

They are estimates, but it is slated to lose three Electoral College votes in 2032. That's based on estimates as we know, but also some data from 2020 to present. 

New York was projected to lose 2 seats last time.

In the end, they lost only one by a margin of just 89 people. 

[sanders]

Sept 15, 2024 12:21:09 GMT johng said:

Sept 15, 2024 12:06:45 GMT sanders said:

They are estimates, but it is slated to lose three Electoral College votes in 2032. That's based on estimates as we know, but also some data from 2020 to present. 

New York was projected to lose 2 seats last time.

In the end, they lost only one by a margin of just 89 people. 

Rumours of NY's death are overstated. 

[markgoodair]

On September 18, the Second Circuit issued a one-sentence order in Kennedy v Berger, 24-2385, denying a ballot position to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., in New York. It is now confirmed that New York will be the only state with only two presidential candidates on the ballot.

[sanders]

NYC Mayor Eric Adams got indicted. AOC is calling for his resignation. This may help Republicans in November. They have many marginal House seats. They gained several seats in 2022. This benefits Republicans on Long Island. It's close to New York City. Adams may lose the 2025 primary. I believe he is still running. NY Governor Hochul is also unpopular. A fish rots from the head. Adams narrowly won the 2021 primary. He could easily lose next year. 

What a shit show this is. New York, the great Empire State. It once had Governor Nelson Rockefeller. NYC once had Mayor John Lindsay.

[markgoodair]

On October 9, New York Supreme Court Justice Gerard J. Neri, who operates in the Fifth District, struck down the 2023 law that moves most local partisan elections from November of odd years to November of even years. The ruling says the law violates the state Constitution

[sanders]

This is concerning for Kamala Harris. Michael Dukakis got 66% in 1988. A 4% uptick for Trump here. It won't matter in NY, obviously. Trump may surge in other cities. That could cost Democrats the election. NYC shifting right wouldn't shock me. In fact, it's almost certainly happening. Asian Americans in Queens driving it. Plus Jewish voters in the city. Also some improvement with African Americans. Watch the Queens-based 5th Congressional District. Democrats won 55-45 in 2022, IIRC. That was in the governor's race. Queens is more Republican-friendly than elsewhere. So Republicans may win one day. Many Chinese Americans live around there.  

[markgoodair]

The New York Working Families Party has made fewer nominations for Congress and state legislature this year than ever since it first became a qualified party. It qualified as a party in November 1998.

This year it only made nominations in twelve U.S. House seats (the state has 26 seats). This is the fewest ever, in the years in which it was a qualified party. All its U.S. House nominations are for the Democratic Party’s nominee except in one seat, where it has its own nominee. However, in that case, the party leadership would rather have nominated the Democrat, but an outsider won the party’s primary.

The party made nominations for 27 U.S. House seats in 2008, when New York had 29 seats.

For the legislature, this year the party made a nomination in only 94 seats. New York has 213 seats up. The party was most active with legislative nominations in 2018 and 2010. In those years, it had 146 legislative nominations.

For Justice of the Supreme Court, the party only made four nominations, out of36 seats up this year.

[iain]

Ironically, despite the abysmal Democratic result here (biggest swing in the country 2020-24) they look poised to pick up as many as 3 house seats plus holding their special election gain.

[sanders]

Massive, massive New York swing here.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Nov 6, 2024 13:41:31 GMT sanders said:

Massive, massive New York swing here.

That Erie County result means that Trump won Buffalo...which has not elected a GOP mayor since 1965.

[nitory]

Huge swing in the Asian plurality, Queens based 6th towards Trump. Meng is out-performing the top of the ticket by 16 points. 

[rcronald]

You had close to a 20% swing in the Asian, and Hispanic neighbourhoods of NYC.

projects.thecity.nyc/election-results-voter-turnout-Harris-Trump-map/

Trump won 40% of the vote in heavily Hispanic upper Manhattan and 60% in Brooklyn’s main Chinatown (Bensonhurst)

[sanders]

Nov 7, 2024 15:28:46 GMT rcronald said:

You had close to a 20% swing in the Asian, and Hispanic neighbourhoods of NYC.

projects.thecity.nyc/election-results-voter-turnout-Harris-Trump-map/

Trump won 40% of the vote in heavily Hispanic upper Manhattan and 60% in Brooklyn’s main Chinatown (Bensonhurst)

Queens used to be good for the GOP. Eisenhower won it, and so did Nixon. The 2025 NYC mayoral election will be very interesting. What about the Jewish areas?

[rcronald]

Nov 7, 2024 16:55:50 GMT sanders said:

Nov 7, 2024 15:28:46 GMT rcronald said:

You had close to a 20% swing in the Asian, and Hispanic neighbourhoods of NYC.

projects.thecity.nyc/election-results-voter-turnout-Harris-Trump-map/

Trump won 40% of the vote in heavily Hispanic upper Manhattan and 60% in Brooklyn’s main Chinatown (Bensonhurst)

Queens used to be good for the GOP. Eisenhower won it, and so did Nixon. The 2025 NYC mayoral election will be very interesting. What about the Jewish areas?

he massively gained in all of the Jewish majority parts of the city that are not in Manhattan (and even there he had a large swing towards him). Probably lost the Jewish vote by single digits.

[rcronald]

[Sibboleth]

Massive swing to R amongst Latinos would do that.